Nifty - 11 Jul 2014 - Volatile end of week

Post a 250+ points ranged session, Nifty may consolidate but volatility set to rise.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Budget day Blues" on the Nifty, with a very wide 252 ranged session, as both the Bulls and the Bears sought to take control of the proceedings. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 5 points at 7590 and traded in a confined range up to the start of the Budget speech, when it started to plunge into a nosedive. The Nifty reached the low point of 7479 before noon, where it found not only buying support, but it turned so much Bullish that the Nifty crossed the day's high and reached 7731 within the next couple of hours. Finally, the Nifty closed at 7568 with a loss of 17 points against its previous close.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +18 to +108 Bear Power also rises from -80 to -144 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears have not got stronger with the Bears having a slight edge. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7725 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7465 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the neutral zone and continue to point downwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 10 Jul 2014 - Budget day Blues

Nifty poised critically ahead of the Budget day. Volatile session on the cards now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty which had a "Drop from the top" on the previous day, continued to plunge downwards, with a couple of attempts for a recovery that got thwarted easily. The Nifty opened at 7638 with a positive gap up of 15 points, and dropped within the first hour of trade to 7552 and recovered to a high of 7650 within the next hour. The Nifty then traded within a small range of 40 points before closing at 7585 with a loss of 38 points over its previous close. We booked a loss of 25 points on a long trade taken as per our trading plan that got failed.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +169 to +18 Bear Power rises from -44 to -80 indicating that the Bears are now stronger, but the Bulls cannot be ignored as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7655 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7545 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the middle of the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 09 Jul 2014 - Drop from the top

Nifty makes a new high and drops from the top. Bears get a look in, but need more.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty stalled, but looked positive at the start of the trading session and remained so for the first hour of trade. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 17 points at 7804 and made a quick high of 7809 within the first few minutes of trade. However, the Nifty could not manage to sustain at those high levels and slipped to our identified support zone of 7745, from where a recovery was attempted but failed again. The Nifty then slipped below our identified key support of 7720 and then dropped almost vertically not even attempting a recovery. The Nifty made a low of 7596 before closing at 7623 with a loss of a whopping 164 points over its previous close. We took a trade on the long side at 7745 and booked out with a profit of 25 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +150 to +169 Bear Power also rises from +113 to -44 indicating that the Bears have now regained their lost grounds but need to keep the momentum with them as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7805 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7590 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are back to the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA(7671) and 13EMA(7640) but has closed above its 21EMA(7586) and has also closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 08 Jul 2014 - Nifty stalls but looks positive

Nifty consolidates at the top of range, as indicators turn positive. Big move ahead. 

As discussed yesterday, "Bulls had their advantage" and maintained it throughout the trading session, managing to keep the Nifty afloat, trading at the top end of the trading range. However, a breakout did not materialize, indicating some kind of resistance developing. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 29 points at 7780 and made a high in our identified resistance zone around 7785. The Nifty then had a small dip to 7760 initially, and later in the day at 7755 from where the Nifty recovered to make a high of 7792 before closing at 7787 with a gain of 36 points over its previous close. We took a trade on the short side and booked 25 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +140 to +150 Bear Power reduces from +43 to +113 indicating that the Bears have lost heavily in this narrow ranged trading session. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7815 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7665 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 07 Jul 2014 - Bulls have the advantage

With a positive weekly close, the Bulls have retained the advantage. Need follow up.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Bullish end of week". The Nifty which opened with a mild gap up of 3 points, struggled initially to cross the levels of 7735 and dipped below 7700 to reach 7661 (just below our identified support zone) and there it found so much buying pressure, that the Nifty not only reached above 7700, but also crossed the day's highs to reach out to our identified target zone of 7755. The Nifty made a high of 7758 before closing at 7752 a gain of 37 points over its previous close. We took a trade on the long side and could book a profit of 100 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +158 to +140 Bear Power rises from +111 to +43 indicating that though the Bulls have advantage, they are slipping and need to follow up. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7780 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7640 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are now well and deep into the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.