Nifty - 21 Oct 2011 - Rangebound volatility course for the day

Nifty dancing to global tunes amidst local turmoil

As discussed yesterday, the wall of worry is still a big roadblock in the up-move for the Nifty. Yesterday, after a subdued opening and a even subdued trading session, the Nifty recovered in the second half to close just around its opening mark. Yet again, there was seen a lack of follow up on the part of the Bears, allowing the Bulls to recover much of the lost ground. The Nifty is still range bound within 4950 and 5150.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +117 to +59 Bear Power increases from +44 to -6. Again, both the Bulls and the Bears are within their comfort zone, indicating a tug of war which will keep the Nifty range-bound with a good amount of volatility. Identifying a trend will become more and more difficult in such conditions.

2) The EMAs are slowing down in their up-move but the DMAs continue to point downwards.

3) Keeping the expiry of the current series in mind, the Nifty is expected to be trend-less for today.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have been decreasing, the MACD is also showing a bearish divergence, and the ADX is indicating a trend-less market.

5) The stochastics are in the overbought zone now.

6) Looking at the above, we have a trading plan for the Nifty as under

a) Around 5120 we will open short positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5050. We will add to these short positions only below 5010.

b)  We will avoid opening fresh long positions in the current series as of today. However, above 5150, we will open fresh longs for the next month series with a SL of 5120 and a target of 5220 5320.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 21 Oct 2011 - Rangebound volatility course for the day

Nifty dancing to global tunes amidst local turmoil

As discussed yesterday, the wall of worry is still a big roadblock in the up-move for the Nifty. Yesterday, after a subdued opening and a even subdued trading session, the Nifty recovered in the second half to close just around its opening mark. Yet again, there was seen a lack of follow up on the part of the Bears, allowing the Bulls to recover much of the lost ground. The Nifty is still range bound within 4950 and 5150.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +117 to +59 Bear Power increases from +44 to -6. Again, both the Bulls and the Bears are within their comfort zone, indicating a tug of war which will keep the Nifty range-bound with a good amount of volatility. Identifying a trend will become more and more difficult in such conditions.

2) The EMAs are slowing down in their up-move but the DMAs continue to point downwards.

3) Keeping the expiry of the current series in mind, the Nifty is expected to be trend-less for today.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have been decreasing, the MACD is also showing a bearish divergence, and the ADX is indicating a trend-less market.

5) The stochastics are in the overbought zone now.

6) Looking at the above, we have a trading plan for the Nifty as under

a) Around 5120 we will open short positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5050. We will add to these short positions only below 5010.

b)  We will avoid opening fresh long positions in the current series as of today. However, above 5150, we will open fresh longs for the next month series with a SL of 5120 and a target of 5220 5320.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 20 Oct 2011 - Wall of worry needs to be crossed

Watch out for 5170 5220 range

In our post two day's ago, we said use the gap down as an opportunity to go long. That strategy is now yielding good results, as the Nifty seems to be ready to cross the wall of worry that stands in the range of 5170 to 5220. Having said that, the Nifty has in the past few weeks, failed to cross this wall and has gone back to test its recent lows at least 4 times. If it fails now again, then the lower boundary of the current trading range is in real threat. However, if the Nifty succeeds in taking out 5220, then we can see a 200 point rally in the coming sessions. A close technical analysis will throw more light on this.

1) Given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening.

2) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased from +44 to +117 Bear Power reduced from -2 to +44. The bears have again come in the positive territory, making them weak. However, the falling volumes indicate that the bears have been sitting on the ring side, and that is why the bulls have had their way in the market. 

3) The EMAs are pointing up and the DMAs are pointing down, indicating a uptrend within a major downtrend. This is a clear indication that a trend reversal is yet to be confirmed.

4) The stochastics are deep in the overbought zone, and indicate that a buying frenzy has happened. So we need to watch out for a selling spree to start.

5) In the above chart, both the MACD and the ADX are supportive of the bullish trend. However, the Bollinger Bands are signalling a halt near 5200.

6) Considering all of the above, our trading plan for the day is based on the thesis that the Nifty has a support at 5090 and a resistance at 5220.

a) We will open fresh long positions near 5110 with a SL of 5080 and a target of 5180. We will add to our long positions only above 5230.

b) We will open fresh short positions near 5200 with a SL of 5230 and a target of 5100. We will add to our short positions only below 5075.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 20 Oct 2011 - Wall of worry needs to be crossed

Watch out for 5170 5220 range

In our post two day's ago, we said use the gap down as an opportunity to go long. That strategy is now yielding good results, as the Nifty seems to be ready to cross the wall of worry that stands in the range of 5170 to 5220. Having said that, the Nifty has in the past few weeks, failed to cross this wall and has gone back to test its recent lows at least 4 times. If it fails now again, then the lower boundary of the current trading range is in real threat. However, if the Nifty succeeds in taking out 5220, then we can see a 200 point rally in the coming sessions. A close technical analysis will throw more light on this.

1) Given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening.

2) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased from +44 to +117 Bear Power reduced from -2 to +44. The bears have again come in the positive territory, making them weak. However, the falling volumes indicate that the bears have been sitting on the ring side, and that is why the bulls have had their way in the market. 

3) The EMAs are pointing up and the DMAs are pointing down, indicating a uptrend within a major downtrend. This is a clear indication that a trend reversal is yet to be confirmed.

4) The stochastics are deep in the overbought zone, and indicate that a buying frenzy has happened. So we need to watch out for a selling spree to start.

5) In the above chart, both the MACD and the ADX are supportive of the bullish trend. However, the Bollinger Bands are signalling a halt near 5200.

6) Considering all of the above, our trading plan for the day is based on the thesis that the Nifty has a support at 5090 and a resistance at 5220.

a) We will open fresh long positions near 5110 with a SL of 5080 and a target of 5180. We will add to our long positions only above 5230.

b) We will open fresh short positions near 5200 with a SL of 5230 and a target of 5100. We will add to our short positions only below 5075.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 19 Oct 2011 - Trading range all set to widen

Profit booking post positive opening on the cards

As discussed yesterday, the opportunity to go long using the negative opening could prove correct with the positive opening that is expected today. But as said in our earlier posts, it will require a good follow up by either the Bulls or the Bears to set a trend. Currently, Nifty is on a tricky wicket, and could start a slide any time.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power decreased from +151 to +44 Bear Power increased from  +75 to -2. This shows that both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective territories, and either of them could take the lead. Bulls have an additional task to fill up the yesterday's down gaps.

2) The EMAs which were recently pointing upwards, have turned flat, indicating a pause in the up move. The DMAs are pointing downwards still.

3) The fast stochastics have come out of the overbought zone, while the slow stochastics are still in the overbought zone. A slide down on the Nifty cannot be ruled out in coming few sessions, unless the Bulls really work hard.

4) In the above chart, the MACD has started sliding down, though it is still in a positive territory. The ADX shows a rise in the down move and a fall in the up move.

5) The trading range and the volumes have fallen in the last two trading sessions.

6) Based on this, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Wait for Nifty to form a trend in the range of 5060 5090, with 5080 as the pivot.

b) Below 5060, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5090 and a target of 5000 4960.

c) Above 5090 , we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5060 and a target of 5130 5160.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 19 Oct 2011 - Trading range all set to widen

Profit booking post positive opening on the cards

As discussed yesterday, the opportunity to go long using the negative opening could prove correct with the positive opening that is expected today. But as said in our earlier posts, it will require a good follow up by either the Bulls or the Bears to set a trend. Currently, Nifty is on a tricky wicket, and could start a slide any time.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power decreased from +151 to +44 Bear Power increased from  +75 to -2. This shows that both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective territories, and either of them could take the lead. Bulls have an additional task to fill up the yesterday's down gaps.

2) The EMAs which were recently pointing upwards, have turned flat, indicating a pause in the up move. The DMAs are pointing downwards still.

3) The fast stochastics have come out of the overbought zone, while the slow stochastics are still in the overbought zone. A slide down on the Nifty cannot be ruled out in coming few sessions, unless the Bulls really work hard.

4) In the above chart, the MACD has started sliding down, though it is still in a positive territory. The ADX shows a rise in the down move and a fall in the up move.

5) The trading range and the volumes have fallen in the last two trading sessions.

6) Based on this, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Wait for Nifty to form a trend in the range of 5060 5090, with 5080 as the pivot.

b) Below 5060, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5090 and a target of 5000 4960.

c) Above 5090 , we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5060 and a target of 5130 5160.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 18 Oct 2011 - Use downgaps to go long

Negative opening and range bound trading expected today

As discussed yesterday, it proved to be a good opportunity to risk short selling. With today's expected negative opening, mostly due to global cues, this opportunity might seem to be worth holding on and carrying forward. However, the technicals need to confirm this. So let's get on with the technical analysis.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased by just 1 point from +150 to +151. Bear Power reduced from +65 to +75. This indicates that in spite of the short build up seen yesterday, the performance of the Bears is conspicuous by the absence of follow up selling.

2) The EMAs have now turned towards the positive, which is supportive to a bullish trend.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone but are pointing downwards and seem ready to enter the neutral zone.

4) In the above chart, the MACD is rising. The volumes have fallen during yesterday's fall, indicating that the fall could be deceiving. The +ADX is falling. The -ADX is also falling.

5) Overall, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative. However, it will take an enormous effort from the Bears to keep it trading below the opening mark. The Bulls have enough power and technical support in the charts to assume that they will lift the Nifty from the negative opening.

6) As per the charts, the Nifty has a good support at 5000 to 5025 Zone and has a strong resistance at 5140 5170 Zone.

7) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is,

a) We will open fresh longs around 5030 with a SL of 5010 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5185, with a target of 5320

b) We will open short positions near 5120 with a SL of 5165 and a target of 5040. We will add to short positions below 4990 with a target of 4920. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 18 Oct 2011 - Use downgaps to go long

Negative opening and range bound trading expected today

As discussed yesterday, it proved to be a good opportunity to risk short selling. With today's expected negative opening, mostly due to global cues, this opportunity might seem to be worth holding on and carrying forward. However, the technicals need to confirm this. So let's get on with the technical analysis.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased by just 1 point from +150 to +151. Bear Power reduced from +65 to +75. This indicates that in spite of the short build up seen yesterday, the performance of the Bears is conspicuous by the absence of follow up selling.

2) The EMAs have now turned towards the positive, which is supportive to a bullish trend.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone but are pointing downwards and seem ready to enter the neutral zone.

4) In the above chart, the MACD is rising. The volumes have fallen during yesterday's fall, indicating that the fall could be deceiving. The +ADX is falling. The -ADX is also falling.

5) Overall, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative. However, it will take an enormous effort from the Bears to keep it trading below the opening mark. The Bulls have enough power and technical support in the charts to assume that they will lift the Nifty from the negative opening.

6) As per the charts, the Nifty has a good support at 5000 to 5025 Zone and has a strong resistance at 5140 5170 Zone.

7) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is,

a) We will open fresh longs around 5030 with a SL of 5010 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5185, with a target of 5320

b) We will open short positions near 5120 with a SL of 5165 and a target of 5040. We will add to short positions below 4990 with a target of 4920. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 17 Oct 2011 - Good time to risk short selling

Nifty dangerously close to near term resistance

As discussed on Friday, the Bulls demonstrated their control over the Nifty, but could not take it past the near term resistance of 5170 and were forced to shut shop at 5132 with a gain of 54 points over the previous close. Today, we are likely to have a positive to flat opening, and Nifty could struggle a bit at levels near to 5200. A closer technical review will clarify this.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduced from +169 to +150. Bear Power increased from  +100 to +65. This indicates, that the Bulls have started slipping, and the Bears seem to have completed regrouping. The follow-up by either of them will produce the winner for the near term.

2) The DMAs are still pointing downwards, confirming the overall bearish trend. However, the EMAs have started to take an upward turn, indicating that a turnaround may be on the cards, yet to be confirmed.

3) The stochastics are deep into the overbought zone, and indicate that a near term top might just be around the corner.

4) In the above chart, the volumes are showing a divergence, with lower volumes during a bullish closing. Also there is a indication of an aborted bullish engulfing. However, the MACD is showing an up-move and the ADX does not indicate a bear run as yet.

5) As discussed in our weekly review yesterday, this is the best chance for the Nifty to cross the hurdle of 5170 5200. But if this chance is missed, we might see the recent lows again.

6) This makes for a good risk to reward ratio in opening short positions at around 5200 with a SL of 5240 and a target of 5025. Based on this our trading plan for today is as under.

a) Around 5200 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5240 and targets of 5100 5070 5025.

b) Around 5100 we will open fresh longs with a SL of 5060 and targets of 5200 5320.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 17 Oct 2011 - Good time to risk short selling

Nifty dangerously close to near term resistance

As discussed on Friday, the Bulls demonstrated their control over the Nifty, but could not take it past the near term resistance of 5170 and were forced to shut shop at 5132 with a gain of 54 points over the previous close. Today, we are likely to have a positive to flat opening, and Nifty could struggle a bit at levels near to 5200. A closer technical review will clarify this.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduced from +169 to +150. Bear Power increased from  +100 to +65. This indicates, that the Bulls have started slipping, and the Bears seem to have completed regrouping. The follow-up by either of them will produce the winner for the near term.

2) The DMAs are still pointing downwards, confirming the overall bearish trend. However, the EMAs have started to take an upward turn, indicating that a turnaround may be on the cards, yet to be confirmed.

3) The stochastics are deep into the overbought zone, and indicate that a near term top might just be around the corner.

4) In the above chart, the volumes are showing a divergence, with lower volumes during a bullish closing. Also there is a indication of an aborted bullish engulfing. However, the MACD is showing an up-move and the ADX does not indicate a bear run as yet.

5) As discussed in our weekly review yesterday, this is the best chance for the Nifty to cross the hurdle of 5170 5200. But if this chance is missed, we might see the recent lows again.

6) This makes for a good risk to reward ratio in opening short positions at around 5200 with a SL of 5240 and a target of 5025. Based on this our trading plan for today is as under.

a) Around 5200 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5240 and targets of 5100 5070 5025.

b) Around 5100 we will open fresh longs with a SL of 5060 and targets of 5200 5320.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - Weekly Review - 10th to 14th Oct 2011

Nifty Weekly Review

The Nifty ended the week on 14th Oct 2011 with a hefty gain of 244 points over the last weekly close. This was a really nice comeback on the back drop of a 55 point loss during the previous week. Earlier in the week, we did indicate that the Bulls were on the roll and that the positive bias would continue. The markets did oblige. 

The trading range of the Nifty during the week was from a low of 4882 to a high of 5141 which works out to +257.  Also to be noted is that we never did close below the last weekly close, which is a very very positive indicator.

 In the above weekly chart of the Nifty, it is clear that we are at the nearest point to the falling EMAs in the very recent past. This makes it our best chance to break out of the near term trading range and take out 5200 in the very near future. 

This also indicates that if in the next week, we are not able to break out of 5200, then we will most likely retest the near term lows, as indicated by the falling Bollinger Bands.

So the best strategy, would be to buy 5200 puts when the Nifty is trading above 5170 and wait till expiry. This would limit the risk with a reward potential of over 350 points. We will be on look out for this opportunity during the coming week.

Happy Trading !!!

Bullish looking stocks for the next week

ADANIPOWER AHMEDFORGE APCOTEXIND ASHIANA ATFL ATLANTA DHANUKA EIMCOELECO GRAPHITE GREAVESCOT HINDUJAVEN HINDZINC JUBILANT KIRLOSENG KSK KTKBANK MCDHOLDING OMNITECH PRADIP SURYALAXMI SURYAROSNI WHIRLPOOL
 
Bearish looking stocks for the next week 

AMARAJABAT BHAGWATIHO EMCO GAYAPROJ HCL-INSYS INDIANB JMCPROJECT KIRLOSIND MAHINDFORG MANGLMCEM PLASTIBLEN PREMIER SIYSIL UCALFUEL

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - Weekly Review - 10th to 14th Oct 2011

Nifty Weekly Review

The Nifty ended the week on 14th Oct 2011 with a hefty gain of 244 points over the last weekly close. This was a really nice comeback on the back drop of a 55 point loss during the previous week. Earlier in the week, we did indicate that the Bulls were on the roll and that the positive bias would continue. The markets did oblige. 

The trading range of the Nifty during the week was from a low of 4882 to a high of 5141 which works out to +257.  Also to be noted is that we never did close below the last weekly close, which is a very very positive indicator.

 In the above weekly chart of the Nifty, it is clear that we are at the nearest point to the falling EMAs in the very recent past. This makes it our best chance to break out of the near term trading range and take out 5200 in the very near future. 

This also indicates that if in the next week, we are not able to break out of 5200, then we will most likely retest the near term lows, as indicated by the falling Bollinger Bands.

So the best strategy, would be to buy 5200 puts when the Nifty is trading above 5170 and wait till expiry. This would limit the risk with a reward potential of over 350 points. We will be on look out for this opportunity during the coming week.

Happy Trading !!!

Bullish looking stocks for the next week

ADANIPOWER AHMEDFORGE APCOTEXIND ASHIANA ATFL ATLANTA DHANUKA EIMCOELECO GRAPHITE GREAVESCOT HINDUJAVEN HINDZINC JUBILANT KIRLOSENG KSK KTKBANK MCDHOLDING OMNITECH PRADIP SURYALAXMI SURYAROSNI WHIRLPOOL
 
Bearish looking stocks for the next week 

AMARAJABAT BHAGWATIHO EMCO GAYAPROJ HCL-INSYS INDIANB JMCPROJECT KIRLOSIND MAHINDFORG MANGLMCEM PLASTIBLEN PREMIER SIYSIL UCALFUEL

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE