Bulls stage a minor pullback. Nifty nearing resistances. Bearish assertion expected.As discussed yesterday, "Bears made the crash canary sing". The Nifty opened with a minor negative gap down of 20 points at 5283. The Nifty then traded bearishly, but in a wider range of about 60 points between 5270 and 5330 for the first 3 hours of trading. The Nifty made a low of 5254 which was a new weekly and monthly low too. However, buying seeped in quietly at lower levels, and the Nifty crossed the day's highs to unfurl a bullish wave which took the Nifty past our identified resistance zone and above 5400 to make a high of 5419 before closing at 5408. We booked a loss of 30 points in one trade taken and are holding a short position initiated at 5385.Summary : Although the bulls have staged this minor pullback, the technicals remain mostly bearish. Unless the Nifty gives a weekly close above 5500, the outlook will remain bearish for the time being. 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -58 to -122 Bear Power also reduces from -294 to -286 indicating that the Bears are still in full control of the Nifty and the Bulls have much work to do as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5520 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5235 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are hovering at the top of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may continue. The MACD continues to point downwards, but the histogram is reducing yet remaining in the negative. The ADX is showing reducing momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears, but is preferring the Bears as of now. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its Sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5698.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5480 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5500 and a target of 5330. We will add to these short positions only below 5305.b) Around 5325 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5305 and a target of 5455. We will add to these long positions only above 5500.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bulls stage a minor pullback. Nifty nearing resistances. Bearish assertion expected.
As discussed yesterday, "Bears made the crash canary sing". The Nifty opened with a minor negative gap down of 20 points at 5283. The Nifty then traded bearishly, but in a wider range of about 60 points between 5270 and 5330 for the first 3 hours of trading. The Nifty made a low of 5254 which was a new weekly and monthly low too. However, buying seeped in quietly at lower levels, and the Nifty crossed the day's highs to unfurl a bullish wave which took the Nifty past our identified resistance zone and above 5400 to make a high of 5419 before closing at 5408. We booked a loss of 30 points in one trade taken and are holding a short position initiated at 5385.
Summary : Although the bulls have staged this minor pullback, the technicals remain mostly bearish. Unless the Nifty gives a weekly close above 5500, the outlook will remain bearish for the time being.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -58 to -122 Bear Power also reduces from -294 to -286 indicating that the Bears are still in full control of the Nifty and the Bulls have much work to do as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5520 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5235 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are hovering at the top of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
Bulls fritter their advantage as the Bears stamp their authority. No respite in view.In our yesterday's post, we had suggested "Bears take a breather". A day ago, we had also suggested "Short it. Forget it". The Nifty opened with a huge positive gap of 93 points at 5494, which was just near our infliction point of 5495. The Nifty then made a really quick high of 5504 and was threatening a breakout. However, some sustained selling at those levels, saw the Nifty pull down and then it was one way for the Bears. The Nifty kept on going down continuously, with a occasional pause of course, and went down to breach the weekly and monthly lows, and went down to 5268 before closing at 5303. We took three trades, all in the short direction, and could book a total profit of 253 points on those trades.Summary : The trend on the Nifty is assertively down. However, the trading range has expanded exponentially, and a bullish backlash can come in anytime and from any level. 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -188 to -58 Bear Power reduces mildly from -294 to -299 indicating that though the Bulls have recovered majorly, their safe zone is still out of bounds for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5525 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5225 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone and are still pointing downwards.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD continues to point downwards, the histogram continues to grow in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the Bearish momentum and a rise in the Bullish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5727.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5370 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5400 and a target of 5240. We will add to these short positions only below 5205.b) Around 5225 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5205 and a target of 5360. We will add to these long positions only above 5400.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bulls fritter their advantage as the Bears stamp their authority. No respite in view.
In our yesterday's post, we had suggested "Bears take a breather". A day ago, we had also suggested "Short it. Forget it". The Nifty opened with a huge positive gap of 93 points at 5494, which was just near our infliction point of 5495. The Nifty then made a really quick high of 5504 and was threatening a breakout. However, some sustained selling at those levels, saw the Nifty pull down and then it was one way for the Bears. The Nifty kept on going down continuously, with a occasional pause of course, and went down to breach the weekly and monthly lows, and went down to 5268 before closing at 5303. We took three trades, all in the short direction, and could book a total profit of 253 points on those trades.
Summary : The trend on the Nifty is assertively down. However, the trading range has expanded exponentially, and a bullish backlash can come in anytime and from any level.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -188 to -58 Bear Power reduces mildly from -294 to -299 indicating that though the Bulls have recovered majorly, their safe zone is still out of bounds for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5525 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5225 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone and are still pointing downwards.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
Bears open the Nifty below par and then take a breather. Bulls have their chance now.Our yesterday's post "Short it. Forget it." assumed that the Bears would stamp down on the Nifty and press their foot on the accelerator. However, the Bears chose otherwise. They opened the Nifty with a whopping negative gap down of 61 points at 5353 and kept on selling in the first hour of trade itself to make a low of 5306 and then they took a breather. Short covering emerged and the Nifty slowly and steadily recovered from the day's lows to not only breach the day's high at 5353 but also to attempt to break out in the green. The Nifty then closed at 5401 after making a high of 5418. We took two trades and booked a profit of 42-18=24 points in total.Summary : The Bears have only lifted their foot from the accelerator. They are still in the driver's seat and may be waiting for the kill at higher levels. On the other hand, the Bulls have a golden chance to attempt a reversal.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -140 to -188 Bear Power rises from -279 to -299, indicating that the Bears are in full control on the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5570 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5270 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone.3) The Nifty continues to close well below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained high with the Nifty exhibiting a green candle indicating that the up move may continue for now. The MACD continues to point downwards with the histogram also growing in the negative, indicating that the downtrend has not reversed as yet. The ADX is also suggesting a pause in the bearish momentum, but a loss in the Bullish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now shifted to 5746.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5465 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5495 and a target of 5350. We will add to these short positions only below 5310.b) Around 5335 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5310 and a target of 5440. We will add to these long positions only above 5495.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bears open the Nifty below par and then take a breather. Bulls have their chance now.
Our yesterday's post "Short it. Forget it." assumed that the Bears would stamp down on the Nifty and press their foot on the accelerator. However, the Bears chose otherwise. They opened the Nifty with a whopping negative gap down of 61 points at 5353 and kept on selling in the first hour of trade itself to make a low of 5306 and then they took a breather. Short covering emerged and the Nifty slowly and steadily recovered from the day's lows to not only breach the day's high at 5353 but also to attempt to break out in the green. The Nifty then closed at 5401 after making a high of 5418. We took two trades and booked a profit of 42-18=24 points in total.
Summary : The Bears have only lifted their foot from the accelerator. They are still in the driver's seat and may be waiting for the kill at higher levels. On the other hand, the Bulls have a golden chance to attempt a reversal.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -140 to -188 Bear Power rises from -279 to -299, indicating that the Bears are in full control on the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5570 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5270 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone.
3) The Nifty continues to close well below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
Bears decimate Bulls as the Nifty continues to plunge. Downfall may accelerate. As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in a choppy bearishness atmosphere. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 10 points at 5498 and almost immediately plunged 75 points to reach the first hour low of 5422 and that is where the choppiness entered. The Nifty then traded with volatile moves remaining above 5400 for the first 3 hours of trade. After that however, the Nifty breached the 5400 level to make a low of 5361 before closing at 5415 with a loss of 93 points. We took two trades on the short side and booked a total profit of 65 points in those two trades.Summary : The Nifty remained choppy throughout the day. This fact is underscored by the fact that every hour the Nifty made a high that was above 5400 and every hour the trading range was above 30 points. However, the technicals remain negative and the down move may continue.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +39 to -140 Bear Power rises from -181 to -279 indicating the swiftness with which the Bulls have got butchered. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5605 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5325 to maintain their downwards momentum. 2) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone while the slow stochastics are nearing it and pointing downwards.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. The 200DMA has started moving downwards, signalling a long term bearish environment. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD has renewed its down move. The histogram has again started growing in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a rise in the Bearish momentum with the overall momentum also on the rise. The Parabolic SAR has again turned into a Sell signal (within two trading sessions) with a SL of 5755.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5435 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5455 and a target of 5345. We will add to these short positions only below 5325.b) Around 5335 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5325 and a target of 5415. We will add to these long positions only above 5455.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bears decimate Bulls as the Nifty continues to plunge. Downfall may accelerate.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in a choppy bearishness atmosphere. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 10 points at 5498 and almost immediately plunged 75 points to reach the first hour low of 5422 and that is where the choppiness entered. The Nifty then traded with volatile moves remaining above 5400 for the first 3 hours of trade. After that however, the Nifty breached the 5400 level to make a low of 5361 before closing at 5415 with a loss of 93 points. We took two trades on the short side and booked a total profit of 65 points in those two trades.
Summary : The Nifty remained choppy throughout the day. This fact is underscored by the fact that every hour the Nifty made a high that was above 5400 and every hour the trading range was above 30 points. However, the technicals remain negative and the down move may continue.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +39 to -140 Bear Power rises from -181 to -279 indicating the swiftness with which the Bulls have got butchered. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5605 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5325 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone while the slow stochastics are nearing it and pointing downwards.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. The 200DMA has started moving downwards, signalling a long term bearish environment.
Bears stamp their authority with a 234 point fall. Choppiness may follow.As discussed on Friday, it was Time for caution. The Nifty opened with a small down gap of 37 points (this gap looks small in the backdrop of the aftermath) at 5705. Made a quick high of 5717 and immediately started to plunge. It first breached our sensitive level of 5690 with ease and then breached 5665 with even more buttress. From there, the Nifty continued to plunge effortlessly, as Bulls seem to have abandoned the cart. The Nifty finally made a low of 5496 and closed at 5508 with a loss of a whopping 234 points. We took a trade in the short direction and were able to book a profit of 55 points on that trade.Summary : Although most of the indicators, on Friday, were in favor of the Bulls, we had suggested it was "Time for caution". This was mainly due to our observation that "The EMAs were stacked in favor of the Bears" and that the corrective rise seem to have reached its limits. Now on, this fall can gather momentum of its own and can turn into a snowball.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +49 to +39 Bear Power rises from -16 to -181 indicating that the Bulls may be down but are not out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5640 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5460 to maintain their downwards momentum. Watch out for the spread in these levels, and expect choppy volatile moves.2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are languishing in the neutral zone as yet, indicating room for a further fall.3) The Nifty has again closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have risen with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has again started pointing downwards, aborting the attempt to indicate a reversal. The histogram has again started growing in the negative. The ADX is now again favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR maintains its Buy signal with the SL now at 5492.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5570, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5700 and a target of 5465. We will add to these short positions only below 5425.b) Around 5450, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5425 and a target of 5550. We will add to these long positions only above 5700.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bears stamp their authority with a 234 point fall. Choppiness may follow.
As discussed on Friday, it was Time for caution. The Nifty opened with a small down gap of 37 points (this gap looks small in the backdrop of the aftermath) at 5705. Made a quick high of 5717 and immediately started to plunge. It first breached our sensitive level of 5690 with ease and then breached 5665 with even more buttress. From there, the Nifty continued to plunge effortlessly, as Bulls seem to have abandoned the cart. The Nifty finally made a low of 5496 and closed at 5508 with a loss of a whopping 234 points. We took a trade in the short direction and were able to book a profit of 55 points on that trade.
Summary : Although most of the indicators, on Friday, were in favor of the Bulls, we had suggested it was "Time for caution". This was mainly due to our observation that "The EMAs were stacked in favor of the Bears" and that the corrective rise seem to have reached its limits. Now on, this fall can gather momentum of its own and can turn into a snowball.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +49 to +39 Bear Power rises from -16 to -181 indicating that the Bulls may be down but are not out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5640 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5460 to maintain their downwards momentum. Watch out for the spread in these levels, and expect choppy volatile moves.
2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are languishing in the neutral zone as yet, indicating room for a further fall.
3) The Nifty has again closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
