Nifty - 28 Dec 2012 - Volatile year end

Nifty poised for a volatile session at the end of week, month and year.

As discussed yesterday, it turned out to be a battle for 5900 on the bourses. The Nifty after opening near the suggested resistances, sold off to touch just below 5900 and then gyrated around that mark for almost the entire trading session, when just in the last hour, the Bears took hold and the Nifty touched 5865 before closing at 5870.  

Although the session would seem to be Bearish by and large, it should be noted that the Bulls overcame the previous day's highs while the Bears could not breach the previous day's lows.

Our trading plan (b) missed out to trigger by a whisker, and reached its target. Our trading plan (a) also triggered, but it was too late to enter the trade by then.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +44 to +58 Bear Power reduces from -14 to -9. indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are now ready for an intense battle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5935 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA, however it has closed above its 21EMA (5850) and has also closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that this fall can continue. The MACD continues with its negative indications. The ADX on the contrary is suggesting a rise in the upwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5931.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5835 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5820 and a target of 5885. We will add to these long positions only above 5915.

b) Around 5900 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5915 and a target of 5855. We will add to these short positions only below 5820.

Happy Trading !!!    

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 28 Dec 2012 - Volatile year end

Nifty poised for a volatile session at the end of week, month and year.

As discussed yesterday, it turned out to be a battle for 5900 on the bourses. The Nifty after opening near the suggested resistances, sold off to touch just below 5900 and then gyrated around that mark for almost the entire trading session, when just in the last hour, the Bears took hold and the Nifty touched 5865 before closing at 5870.  

Although the session would seem to be Bearish by and large, it should be noted that the Bulls overcame the previous day's highs while the Bears could not breach the previous day's lows.

Our trading plan (b) missed out to trigger by a whisker, and reached its target. Our trading plan (a) also triggered, but it was too late to enter the trade by then.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +44 to +58 Bear Power reduces from -14 to -9. indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are now ready for an intense battle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5935 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA, however it has closed above its 21EMA (5850) and has also closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone.

Nifty - 27 Dec 2012 - Battle for 5900

On expiry day, the battle seems to be on for 5900 as the trading range persists.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty got back into the trading zone after mimicking a breakdown. The Nifty opened with a small positive gap of 9 points and hovered around it for the first hour of trade, after which the Bulls took over and the Nifty rose to above 5900. However, it found resistance near the upper band of the trading zone and after making a high of 5918, the Nifty closed at 5905 with a gain of 50 points. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and met the SL and we booked out with a loss of 20 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +3 to +44 Bear Power reduces from -24 to -14 indicating that though the Bulls have gained, the Bears cannot be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5925 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing across each other, indicating volatility and indecision ahead.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained muted with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the prices may not sustain if not quickly backed up by volumes. The MACD continues with its negative indications. The ADX is showing signals of a whipsaw with the momentum turning downwards. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its sell signal with a SL of 5935.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5870 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5855 and a target of 5920. We will add to these long positions only above 5955.

b) Around 5940 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5955 and a target of 5890. We will add to these short positions only below 5855.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 27 Dec 2012 - Battle for 5900

On expiry day, the battle seems to be on for 5900 as the trading range persists.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty got back into the trading zone after mimicking a breakdown. The Nifty opened with a small positive gap of 9 points and hovered around it for the first hour of trade, after which the Bulls took over and the Nifty rose to above 5900. However, it found resistance near the upper band of the trading zone and after making a high of 5918, the Nifty closed at 5905 with a gain of 50 points. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and met the SL and we booked out with a loss of 20 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +3 to +44 Bear Power reduces from -24 to -14 indicating that though the Bulls have gained, the Bears cannot be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5925 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing across each other, indicating volatility and indecision ahead.

Nifty - 26 Dec 2012 - Back in the trading zone

Nifty gets back into the trading zone as both Bulls & Bears fail to assert.

As discussed on Monday, the Bears needed to follow up on their selling of Friday. However, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 22 points and throughout the trading session, the Nifty traded in a narrow band of 27 points. None of our trading plans got triggered and we were happy to watch the proceedings from the sidelines.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +17 to +3 Bear Power also reduces from -29 to -24 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now in a position to assert themselves. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5870 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5840 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA. However, it has closed above its 21EMA (5842) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now hovering on the oversold zone and are pointing across each other.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted with a minor rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise may not sustain. The MACD confirms the downtrend with the histogram becoming even more negative. The ADX is suggesting a slowdown in the downwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5939.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5825 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5805 and a target of 5870. We will add to these long positions only above 5905.

b) Around 5880 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5905 and a target of 5840. We will add to these short positions only below 5805.

Happy Trading !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 26 Dec 2012 - Back in the trading zone

Nifty gets back into the trading zone as both Bulls & Bears fail to assert.

As discussed on Monday, the Bears needed to follow up on their selling of Friday. However, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 22 points and throughout the trading session, the Nifty traded in a narrow band of 27 points. None of our trading plans got triggered and we were happy to watch the proceedings from the sidelines.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +17 to +3 Bear Power also reduces from -29 to -24 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now in a position to assert themselves. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5870 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5840 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA. However, it has closed above its 21EMA (5842) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now hovering on the oversold zone and are pointing across each other.

Nifty - 24 Dec 2012 - Bears need follow up now

Having recaptured their safe zone, Bears need to follow through now.

As discussed on Friday, the Bulls lacked follow up action and the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 28 points and never looked up. The Open & High remained the same for the entire session, indicating that the Bulls had given up. In the end, the Nifty closed at 5848 with a loss of 69 points. Part (b) of our trading plan (b) triggered right in the morning and we could book out with a small profit of 20 points by the end of the trading session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +63 to +17 Bear Power rises from +7 to -29 indicating that the Bears have now regained their lost grounds and need to drag the Bulls out of their territory. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5895 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5835 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA, however it has closed just above its 21EMA (5841) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The fast stochastics have almost reached the oversold zone, whereas the slow stochastics are languishing way back near the overbought zone, indicating that some more downfall on the Nifty.

4)  In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has now given a sell signal and the histogram has also turned negative. The ADX is also suggesting a rise in the downwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now at 5944.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5875 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5895 and a target of 5835. We will add to these short positions only below 5800.

b) Around 5820 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5800 and a target of 5860. We will add to these long positions only above 5895.

Happy Trading !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 24 Dec 2012 - Bears need follow up now

Having recaptured their safe zone, Bears need to follow through now.

As discussed on Friday, the Bulls lacked follow up action and the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 28 points and never looked up. The Open & High remained the same for the entire session, indicating that the Bulls had given up. In the end, the Nifty closed at 5848 with a loss of 69 points. Part (b) of our trading plan (b) triggered right in the morning and we could book out with a small profit of 20 points by the end of the trading session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +63 to +17 Bear Power rises from +7 to -29 indicating that the Bears have now regained their lost grounds and need to drag the Bulls out of their territory. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5895 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5835 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA, however it has closed just above its 21EMA (5841) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The fast stochastics have almost reached the oversold zone, whereas the slow stochastics are languishing way back near the overbought zone, indicating that some more downfall on the Nifty.