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Wednesday 18 December 2013

Nifty - 18 Dec 2013 - Testing critical supports

Seven consecutive days fall post registering a highest high, Nifty at critical supports.

As discussed yesterday, we were expecting "A relief rally may unfold" on the Nifty. Positive global cues and a 24 point gap up opening on the Nifty at 6178 initially supported our view. However, the Bulls could not sustain the Nifty at higher levels, and after making a higher high than previous day at 6191, the Nifty made a lower low than previous day at 6133, before closing at 6139 with a loss of 16 points. We took a trade on the long side and booked out at EOD with a small loss of 8 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -28 to -10 Bear Power also rises from -65 to -68 indicating that the Bears are still in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6195 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6120 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now approaching the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA. However, it has closed above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

Tuesday 17 December 2013

Nifty - 17 Dec 2013 - Relief rally may unfold

Nifty forms a NR7 day. Aided with positive global cues a relief rally may unfold.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Bears winning the battle" on the bourses. The Nifty after a flat opening, traded within a small range of 37 points during the entire trading session. However, the Nifty continued to make a lower high at 6183 and a lower low at 6146 before closing at 6155 with a loss of 14 points. This lower high and lower low continues to keep the Bears in the reckoning.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -12 to -28 Bear Power rises from -59 to -65 indicating that the Bears are in control of the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6205 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6140 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Monday 16 December 2013

Nifty - 16 Dec 2013 - Bears winning the battle

Nifty breaches critical support levels. Uphill task for the Bulls now onwards.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty was in no man's land, at the opening. However, the Nifty after opening gap down for the 4th successive trading session, kept on drifting down by the hour and never really looked like gaining any strength. Thus, the Bearish undertones got confirmed and now the Bulls have lost their footing and face a uphill task of recovery. We took a trade on the long side and lost 20 points on that trade as our SL got hit yet again.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +58 to -12 Bear Power rises from +1 to -59 indicating that the Bears not only have regained their footing, they have also dislodged the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6210 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6145 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are right in the center of the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Friday 13 December 2013

Nifty - 13 Dec 2013 - Nifty in no man's land

Post a huge gap up, Nifty spends entire week filling it. Returns to where it all started.

As discussed yesterday, the "Consolidation Continued" on the Nifty, with the Nifty opening with a negative gap down of 31 points at 6277 making a quick high of 6287 and then trading in a narrow range of 30 points for almost the entire trading session. In the last hour of trade though the Nifty slipped below the intraday lows and made a low of 6231 before closing at 6237. We took a trade on the long side as per our trading plan, but lost 30 points on the trade as our SL of 6240 got hit.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +99 to +58 Bear Power rises from +53 to +1 indicating that the Bears are now just about to regain their footing with even a minor gap down, and that this may be the break they are looking out for. Bulls need to pick up right away. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6290 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6225 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 12 December 2013

Nifty - 12 Dec 2013 - Consolidation continues

Nifty consolidates for last two trading sessions. Decisive move may be coming soon.

As discussed yesterday, the "Drifting consolidation continued" on the Nifty. The Nifty opened with a 26 points negative gap down at 6307 and then traded within a narrow band of 25 points but stayed above 6260, for most of the trading session. The Nifty made a low of 6280. In the last 30 minutes of trade, the Nifty rose to shackle the day's highs and touched a intraday high of 6327, before closing at 6308. We took a trade on the long side and could book out at EOD with a profit of 30 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +148 to +99 Bear Power rises from +93 to +53 indicating that the Bulls are still well in control of the Nifty and the Bears have a much larger task cut out for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6340 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6245 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 11 December 2013

Nifty - 11 Dec 2013 - Drifting consolidation is on

Nifty continues to consolidate as it drifts downwards, maintains Bullish stance yet.

In our yesterday's post, we had expected "Nifty to stay Bullish". The Nifty however, could not sustain the opening highs and traded in the red for the entire trading session. Having said that, the Nifty also took good support around our identified buying zone and closed maintaining its Bullish stance as of now. The Nifty traded in a range of 56 points losing 31 points from its previous close and without threatening the previous day's range at all, which augurs for caution for short term bulls. We took a trade on the long side and could scrape out with a meager profit of just 8 points by EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +221 to +148 Bear Power rises from +150 to +93 indicating that the Bears have a lot to do to come back in the reckoning as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6385 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6235 to regain their downwards momentum. 

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 10 December 2013

Nifty - 10 Dec 2013 - Nifty to stay Bullish

Nifty leaps big, consolidates, gives highest ever close maintaining Bullish technicals. 

As discussed yesterday, Nifty being "Ready for a decisive leap" opened with a bang at 6415. This was at a all time high. However, the Nifty could not sustain these high levels and then started to drift down and lost about 80 points from there when it hit the intraday low of 6345, even that was higher than the earlier highs for the year. Thus the Nifty closed at the highest ever closing point at 6364 and maintained the technicals in the Bullish fervor. There was nothing in the Nifty for intraday traders like us, and we enjoyed sitting out for the day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +109 to +221 Bear Power reduces from +64 to +150 indicating that the Bulls have gone too far too fast but the Bears have got decimated. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6445 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6225 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are still pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Monday 9 December 2013

Nifty - 09 Dec 2013 - Ready for a decisive leap

Nifty having shed weak bulls & maintains bullishness, gets ready for a decisive leap.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty shed weak bulls, on Thursday, and on Friday, despite the gap down opening amidst weakening global cues, the Nifty maintained its Bullish poise and closed with a 19 point gain at 6260. During the day, the Nifty tested the supports of 6225 making a intraday low of 6231. The Nifty, in the last hour of trade, made a high of 6275. We took a trade on the long side and could book out with a profit of 35 points by EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +150 to +109 Bear Power rises from +81 to +64 indicating that the Bulls have given up some grounds but the Bears have not been able to capitalize on it. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6295 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6180 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are now emphasizing the bullish straits.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 6 December 2013

Nifty - 06 Dec 2013 - Nifty sheds weak Bulls

Nifty leaps big and then retreats. Bullish stance maintained. End of week crucial.

As discussed yesterday, Nifty had staged a "Pullback for a big leap", as the Nifty after closing 6161 on Wednesday, opened with a huge positive gap up of 101 points at 6262. However, the Nifty made a quick high of 6301 in the first 15 minutes of trade and then started to come off its highs. The Nifty made a intraday low of 6232 in the last hour of trade before closing at 6241, well off the highs, but with a whopping gain of 80 points, over the previous closing. We initiated a trade on the long side and booked a loss of 30 points as our SL got hit.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +73 to +150 Bear Power reduces from +14 to +81 indicating that the Bulls have now gained a considerable hold over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6320 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6165 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are still hovering on the border of the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 5 December 2013

Nifty - 05 Dec 2013 - Pullback for a big leap

Nifty pulls back a little, but maintains its bullish stance, getting ready for a big leap.

As discussed yesterday, there were "Traces of bullishness" remaining on the Nifty, and they stayed that way even after a lower close at the end of the day. The Nifty opened with a 14 point negative gap down at 6188 and then traded in a 60 point range between 6210 and 6150. The last hour of trade saw some profit booking on the bourses and the Nifty closed at 6161 with a loss of 41 points. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +94 to +73 Bear Power rises from +60 to +14 indicating that this profit booking has still left the Bulls in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6215 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6135 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in just hovering around the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 4 December 2013

Nifty - 04 Dec 2013 - Traces if Bullishness remain

Nifty stays range bound but maintains its Bullish attire. "Buy the dips" continues. 

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty showed its "Neutrality turn to Bullish" pattern. Although the Nifty consolidated in a confined range of 34 points, it never really threatened the advancing of moving averages, which are so critical to the technical broader picture. In the meantime, we got a NR7 day yesterday, and should expect a big move within a day or two from now on. Yesterday, none of our trading plans got triggered, and we sat out watching the gyrations of the Nifty.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +109 to +94 Bear Power also reduces from +51 to +60 indicating that the Bulls are still well placed and that this consolidation has only put back the Bears by that much distance. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6240 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 6140 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are now in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 3 December 2013

Nifty - 03 Dec 2013 - Neutrality turns Bullish

Within two session, Nifty turns from neutral to Bullish. "Buy the dips" is the mantra.

Since our last post "Indecisive at the end of month", the Nifty has moved up by over a 100 points and has turned the technicals in favor of the Bulls. Yesterday, we again took a trading holiday owing to preoccupation with personal issues. On a broader frame, the Nifty is consolidating within a range of 5970 and 6230 for the past 13 sessions, and one more dip towards the lows of this range cannot be ruled out. However, the recent technicals are only pointing at a new high very soon.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +79 to +109 Bear Power reduces from 0 to +51 indicating that the Bulls are now in the driving seat on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6245 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6135 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are approaching the overbought zone but are not quite there yet.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 29 November 2013

Nifty - 29 Nov 2013 - Indecisive at end of month

Nifty stays neutral post expiry. Volatile December on the cards it seems.

Unlike as discussed in our yesterday's post "Expiry jitters", the Nifty traded in a very narrow range of 55 points between 6113 on the higher side and 6068 on the lower side during the entire expiry session. The usual expiry fireworks were missing, underlining the undertone of the Nifty going into the December series. We took two trades, both of which did not materialize, and we made a meager profit of 3 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -17 to +22 Bear Power reduces from -61 to -23 indicating that the Bulls and the Bears both are in their respective zones and are equidistant from the zero line. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6120 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6060 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are looking upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed right in between its key EMAs, however, it has closed above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 28 November 2013

Nifty - 28 Nov 2013 - Expiry Jitters with NR7

Nifty makes a NR7 on the eve of expiry. Expect a huge move amidst weak technicals.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty showed "Neutral Bearishness" in trade throughout the day. The Nifty opened with a 4 point gap up at 6063 and traded with low volumes in a narrow range between the high of 6074 and a low of 6030 before closing at 6057 with a loss of 2 points. And today being the day of series expiry, a huge bout of volatility could be expected. We did not take any trade yesterday as none of our trading plans got triggered.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +16 to -17 Bear Power rises from -49 to -61 indicating that the Bears are gaining ground slowly but surely. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6085 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6025 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are hovering just above the oversold zone and are pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also just below its 50DMA. However, it has closed above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

Wednesday 27 November 2013

Nifty - 27 Nov 2013 - Neutral Bearishness

Nifty does a "Inside Across" candle. Stays neutral but bearish. Sell on rise continues.

We observed a trading holiday yesterday. The Nifty exhibited a "Inside Across" candle on the daily charts, meaning that the Nifty stayed within the trading range of the previous day, but as against closing near the highs on the previous day, the Nifty closed near the lows yesterday. The overall technicals stay neutral as of now, however, the orientation has turned slightly bearish and it is still anybody's game on the Nifty.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +19 to +16 Bear Power also reduces from -67 to -49 indicative of the typical inside day and also the neutrality of Bull Bear positioning on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6095 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6040 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just above the oversold zone and are pointing across.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Monday 25 November 2013

Nifty - 25 Nov 2013 - Expiry week starts with sell on rises

With expiry just 4 days away, the Nifty remains a sell on rises. Volatility may rise.

As discussed on Friday, we had expected a "Red weekend on the cards". The Nifty closed flat but the weekly bar was a red bar plummeting downwards. The Nifty opened at 6028 with a positive gap up of 28 points, and then made its way up to 6041 and slid back to 6004. It clawed its way back to 6050 which was to be its intraday high, and then again the Nifty slid back downwards, this time breaching the intraday lows. The Nifty made a low 5973 before closing at 5995 with a loss of 4 points. We took a short trade at 6038 and squared off at 5978 booking a profit of 60 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -22 to -52 Bear Power also mildly reduces from -134 to -129 indicating that the Bears are still holding the sway on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6080 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5950 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just about touching the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also its 50DMA. The Nifty however, has closed above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

Friday 22 November 2013

Nifty - 22 Nov 2013 - Red weekend on the cards

With a bearish assertion coming to the fore, Nifty expected to end week in the red.

As discussed yesterday, we had said "Bearish assertion needs confirmation". The Bears confirmed their assertion and how. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 26 points at 6097 and that was its high for the entire trading session. The Bears not only breached the supports of 6060, but pushed the Nifty below the levels of 6000, made a low of 5985 before closing the day at 5999 with a loss of 124 points. We took a trade in the short direction and could book a profit of 60 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +65 to -22 Bear Power rises from -32 to -134 indicating that the Bears seem to have taken away the game from the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6100 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5965 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone with the slow stochastics lagging way behind indicating some more room for a further downside.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 21 November 2013

Nifty - 21 Nov 2013 - Bearish assertion needs confirmation

Nifty forms yet another evening star. A bearish assertion can take down Nifty swiftly.

In our yesterday's post "Markets poised at a crucial juncture", we had suggested the importance of EOD close. We had also suggested that both sides have equal stake at present. And that is how the day unfolded. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 17 points at 6187 and barely filled that gap. The Nifty traded within a range of 25 to 30 points for most of the trading session, but kept of testing the lows without really threatening the highs. In the last hour of trade, the Nifty then plunged to its low of 6107 before closing at 6123 with a loss of 80 points. We did not take any trade yesterday because of hazy technicals waiting to resolve themselves.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +71 to +65  Bear Power rises from +38 to -32 indicating that despite the plunge, the Bears need to keep up their tempo as the Bulls cannot be ruled out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6205 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6100 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing across each other.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 20 November 2013

Nifty - 20 Nov 2013 - Markets poised at a critical juncture

Nifty pauses at a critical juncture with both sides having a stake. Crucial EOD today.

As discussed yesterday, "Bulls needed to follow up", however, their follow up lacked the strength and the depth. Having said that, the Bulls also successfully defended the Nifty from the intermittent Bear attacks during the day. As such it turned out to be a NR7 day and a big move on either side can be expected today or tomorrow. We did not participate in the trade yesterday, as the Nifty gyrated in a narrow range of 32 points between 6180 on the lower side and 6212 on the higher side.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +65 to +71 Bear Power reduces from -21 to +38 indicating that the Bears have just lost their footing and unless they are active quickly, they will lose this one. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6225 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6150 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are right in the middle of the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 19 November 2013

Nifty - 19 Nov 2013 - Bulls need to follow up

After 2 days of rise, Bulls must show some follow up buying. Gaps need to sustain.

As discussed yesterday, we got a Bullish start to a fresh week. Riding on positive global cues and after a long weekend, the Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 55 points at 6111 and immediately crossed 6150. The Nifty then traded in a narrow range of 6165 and 6140 for most of the trading session. However, in the last hour of trade, the Nifty raged up to 6197 before closing at 6189 with a gain of 133 points. As intraday traders, we did not get any opportunity to Buy the Nifty in the morning hour and there was no trade available on the short side either. So, we watched the Nifty and sat outside on the fence.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -20 to +65 Bear Power reduces from -85 to -21 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now in their respective zones and some fireworks can be expected. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6210 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6140 to maintain their downwards momentum. 

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Monday 18 November 2013

Nifty - 18 Nov 2013 - Bullish start of a fresh week

Owing to global cues, the Nifty to start on a Bullish note after a long weekend.

In our last post, which now seems to be long ago, owing to this long weekend, we had said that "Bears tighten the noose". However, the Nifty opened at 6037 with a whopping 47 points positive up gap and then never really broke that opening mark. The Nifty then ventured near the two days high of 6109, but did not cross it. The Nifty made a high of 6102 before closing at 6056 with a gain of 67 points. We had to alter our trading plan on the trot and took a trade in the short direction, which yielded us a profit of 35 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -91 to -20 Bear Power reduces from -160 to -85 indicating that the Bulls are on the verge of making a comeback, however the Bears cannot be written off as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6115 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6025 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 14 November 2013

Nifty - 14 Nov 2013 - Bears tighten the noose

Nifty gets bearish pounding for 8 straight sessions. Sell on Rise, and then Sell at will.

In our yesterday's post, we were expecting some green on the screen as Nifty was nearing intermediate supports. The Nifty opened with a 19 point negative gap down at 5999 and immediately ventured into the green making a intermediate high of 6032 during the initial hours of trade. The Nifty then hovered in a 25 point range between 6030 and 6005 for the next two hours of trade. We immediately saw a trading opportunity then, and posted a comment that the Nifty was moving in a expanding triangle and the next higher top would present a handsome shorting opportunity. As such, the Nifty made a higher high at 6042 and then slipped off to not only break the day's opening mark and the intraday low, but to make a new low at 5972 before closing at 5990. We took a short trade at 5940 and booked out at EOD with a profit of 55 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -48 to -91 Bear Power rises from -145 to -160 indicating that the Bears are tightening their vice like grip on the Nifty, and that the Bulls have made their own task that much harder. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6105 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5945 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are well and deep into the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 13 November 2013

Nifty - 13 Nov 2013 - Nearing intermediate supports

After 7 consecutive red candles, there may be some green on the screen expected.

In our yesterday's post we had said "Down move may accelerate", and the markets obliged us. The Nifty opened with a minor positive gap up of 8 points at 6087 and made a quick high of 6109 (which was the trigger of our trading plan a) and then came the sell off and the Nifty accelerated its downfall in the last hour of trade. The Nifty made a low of 6012 before closing at 6018 with a loss of 61 points. Our trade taken in the short direction, yielded us a profit of 71 points as our trading plan(a) hit its target of 6035.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -38 to -48 Bear Power rises from -112 to -145 indicating that the Bears are now firmly in the driver's seat. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6130 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5985 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are deep into the oversold zone now.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 12 November 2013

Nifty - 12 Nov 2013 - Downmove may accelerate

After 6 consecutive down days, Nifty may look to consolidate. Sell on Rise continues.
As discussed yesterday, we saw the Nifty get a Weekly start on a weak note. The Nifty opened with a 30 point gap down at 6110 and then traded bearishly for most of the trading session. One rise on the Nifty by the Bulls, saw the Nifty close the gap and make a high of 6142, but that one got fizzled out by the end of the day, with the Nifty making a low of 6068 and closing at 6079 with a loss of 62 points. During this down move, the Bears have allowed the Bulls to touch the Nifty in the green on each trading day and then they have punished the Nifty and closed it near the day's lows.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -11 to -38 Bear Power rises from -76 to -112 indicating that the Bears are now driving the Nifty and that the Bulls need to rise to the occasion soon, else be left out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6165 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6050 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are pointing downwards but are fast approaching the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Monday 11 November 2013

Nifty - 11 Nov 2013 - Weekly start on a weak note.

Start of a fresh week, sees Nifty in a Sell on Rise mode. Look out for resistances.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty continued its journey heading southwards. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 17 points and barely made that up when it made a day high of 6186 before dipping down again to make a low of 6121 after which the Nifty closed at 6141 with a loss of 47 points. Our trading plan for going long at near 6120 almost triggered but it was at the fag end of the trading session and we did not take that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +83 to -11 Bear Power rises from -25 to -76 indicating that the Bears are now in the driving seat and that the Bulls need to get into their safe zone as their first priority. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6185 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6105 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are still pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Friday 8 November 2013

Nifty - 08 Nov 2013 - Heading southwards

Nifty, after a evening star, reaffirms the down trend. Volatility may rise as Nifty dips.

In our yesterday's post, we expected the Trading range to shift lower. The Nifty after opening with a positive gap up of 14 points at 6229, breached the previous day's low of 6209 marginally, and then in a sudden spike, went all the way up to 6289. From thereon, the Bears took over, and the Nifty not only breached the day's low, but also the psychological level of 6190. It made a low of 6181 before closing at 6187 with a loss of 28 points. The Nifty has now made a lower high at 6289 and a lower low at 6181, which is indicative of the downward move, with the trading range shifting lower. We took a trade on the short side and could book a profit of 75 points in that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +60 to +83 Bear Power also rises from -1 to -25 indicating that the volatility on the Nifty could rise from here and traders need to be cautious about not getting whipsawed. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6290 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6155 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are right in the middle of the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA however it has closed above its 21EMA and above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 7 November 2013

Nifty - 07 Nov 2013 - Trading range shifting lower

Nifty confirms topping out patterns, the trading range shits lower nearing supports.

As discussed yesterday, the Evening star pattern had its effect as expected. The Nifty opened with a minor gap up of 7 points at 6261 and made a quick high of 6270 during the first few minutes of trade. From thereon, the Nifty started its drift downwards and in the late hours of trade, the Nifty made a low of 6209 before closing at 6215 with a loss of 38 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +96 to +60 Bear Power rises from +36 to -1 indicating that the Bears have now regained their lost grounds but now need to defend that position very fiercely. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6275 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6205 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 6 November 2013

Nifty - 06 Nov 2013 - Evening star emerges

Nifty makes a bearish evening star pattern on daily charts. Bullish only above 6320.

As discussed yesterday, Nifty was nearing the tops. The Nifty opened with a 35 point gap down at 6282 and then traded in the negative for the entire trading session. Nifty made a high of 6305 and a low of 6244 before closing at 6253 with a loss of 64 points. Now Nifty needs to give two consecutive closes above 6305 to resume its up trend.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +142 to +96 Bear Power rises from +110 to +36 indicating that the Bulls are losing grounds, but are yet safe in their territory, while the Bears need to do much more. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6315 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6215 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 5 November 2013

Nifty - 05 Nov 2013 - Nearing the tops

Overbought markets seem to be near topping out. Caution in long positions required.

As discussed on Friday, we got a Bullish start to a fresh series. The Nifty opened with a minor gap down of 9 points at 6290 and made a quick low of 6287 and swiftly climbed above 6300 to make a high of 6333 before closing at 6307. During the truncated special trading session on Sunday, the Nifty remained bullish making a all time high of 6343 before closing at 6317.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +149 to +142 Bear Power also reduces from +76 to +110 indicating that the Bears are having their backs to the wall and the Bulls are merrily controlling the Nifty movements. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6365 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6220 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 1 November 2013

Nifty - 01 Nov 2013 - Bullish start to a fresh series

Bulls riding the complacency wave have still some steam left. Newer highs possible.

As discussed yesterday, there were Expiry Jitters seen on the Nifty, but only in the penultimate hour of trading. The Nifty opened with a 15 point gap down at 6237 and never dropped meaningfully during the entire session and kept trading afloat in the range of 6235 to 6270 for most of the trading session. In the last hour of trade the Nifty dropped 25 points and then not only recovered but also scaled new heights and made a high of 6309 before closing at 6299 with a gain of 47 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +132 to +149 Bear Power also rises from +85 to +76 indicating that the Bulls are in full control of the Nifty and the Bears have their work cut out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6335 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6185 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 31 October 2013

Nifty - 31 Oct 2013 - Expiry Jitters

Bulls have their grip on the Nifty ahead of the crucial expiry. May see profit booking.

As discussed yesterday, Bulls made the Nifty stay afloat, with the Nifty opening with a gap up of 10 points at 6231 and then trading within a small range from 6223 to 6269 before closing at the levels of 6252. The Nifty range has contracted again and we could see a big move on either side for today's expiry. We booked a small loss of 20 points in the trade taken yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +110 to +132 Bear Power reduces from -39 to +85 indicating that the Bears have again lost their territory and the Bulls are sitting merrily. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6290 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6155 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are yet again in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Wednesday 30 October 2013

Nifty - 30 Oct 2013 - Bulls make Nift stay afloat

After initial blushes, Nifty soars to recover losses of last two days. Neutral as of now.

As discussed yesterday, Bears had regained their footing, however, after a RBI policy that was already priced in by the market, the Bulls took over the Nifty and the Nifty soared back to near its highs which were in place a few days ago. The Nifty opened with a mild positive gap of 6 points at 6108 and then traded bearishly for the first couple of hours and breached yesterday's lows and made a low at 6082 before recovering the fall from the day's high of 6118 till then. In the mayhem post the announcement of the RBI policy, the Nifty made a low of 6079 and then started its march upwards. The Nifty then never looked back and finally closed at 6221 after making a intraday high of 6228. We took a trade as per our trading plan, however booked a loss of 25 points as the SL got hit.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +68 to +110 Bear Power also rises from -7 to -39 indicating that the Nifty has no clear driver as we approach expiry within a couple of trading sessions. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6245 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6130 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are back into the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 29 October 2013

Nifty - 29 Oct 2013 - Bears regain footing

On the eve of the RBI policy, Bears regain their footing. Nifty can plummet downwards.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was still in a Sell on Rise mode. The Nifty opened with a 10 point gap up at 6155 and made a quick high of 6169 within the first hour of trade. After that, the slide began and the Nifty continued to get sold off till making a low of 6094 before closing at 6101 with a loss of 44 points. We did not participate in the trade yesterday as our trading plan was hit at the fag end of the trading session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +74 to +68 Bear Power rises from +25 to -7 indicating that the Bears have now crawled back into the safe territory but need more work to do to retain their positional safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6170 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6090 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now clearly out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA and also all its key DMAs.

Monday 28 October 2013

Nifty - 28 Oct 2013 - Nifty in Sell on Rise mode still

Nifty continues to be selling on every rise, but finds supports at key EMA levels.

As discussed on Friday, the Sell on Rise asserted yet again, as the Nifty gyrated within a 50 point range between the high of 6175 and the low of 6126 during the entire trading session and closing with a loss of 19 points at 6145. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +159 to +74 Bear Power rises from +49 to +25 indicating that the Bears are crawling back to normalcy where as the Bulls seem to be hit by some amount of complacency. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6180 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6115 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are on the verge of falling down from the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 25 October 2013

Nifty - 25 Oct 2013 - Sell on Rise asserts

Opening rally fizzles out & Nifty closes 85 points below its highs. Not bearish yet.

As discussed yesterday, Bulls were missing their final thrust. There came the semblance of this thrust when the Nifty after opening subdued with a 16 point gap down at 6163 raced to above 6235 within the first 30 minutes of trade and climbed to make a high of 6252. However, this level could not be sustained and the Nifty started its slide down and some consistent selling saw the Nifty not only breach its opening lows but also close near the opening mark after making a intraday low of 6143. We took two lots of short positions as per our trading plan and garnered a profit of 100 points by EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +136 to +159 Bear Power reduces from +35 to +49 indicating that though the Nifty closed with some losses, the Bulls have actually gained some power and the Bears have lost further grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6265 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6105 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone and are now looking to come down.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Thursday 24 October 2013

Nifty - 24 Oct 2013 - Bulls missing the final thrust

Nifty holds on to key support levels and bounces back but remains sell on rise.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls retained their control on the Nifty, however, they missed out on the much needed thrust for the up move to continue and the Bears had a look in. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 7 points at 6210 and made a quick high of 6218 and then got sold off to reach the lows of 6117 and traded bearishly for most of the trading session. A late hour flourish by the Bulls then saw the Nifty recover most of the losses to close at 6178 which was 60 points above the low but quite below the psychological level of 6200. We took two trades and could book a minor profit of 10 points as one of the trades hit the SL.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +154 to +136 Bear Power rises from +116 to +35 indicating that though the Bulls have still retained the control on the Nifty, the Bears have been gaining steadily and quietly during the past 3 trading sessions. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6235 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6095 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to be in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key DMAs and also above all its key EMAs.

Wednesday 23 October 2013

Nifty - 23 Oct 2013 - Bulls retain their control

Nifty continues its range bound consolidation and maintains the Bullish bias.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls still need that final thrust. The Nifty opened gap down of 13 points at 6192 and traded in a very narrow range of less than 40 points for the entire trading session. However, having made a higher high and a higher low, technically the Nifty has maintained its bullish stance. None of our trades as planned got triggered and we were happy sitting out watching the trade terminal.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +176 to +154 Bear Power rises from +120 to +116 indicating that the Bulls have retained their control and are ready for more. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6245 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have decreased with the Nifty remaining stagnant indicating caution in the minds of the traders. The MACD continues with its positive bias. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now raised to 5945.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6155 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6130 and a target of 6225. We will add to these long positions only above 6275.

b) Around 6250 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6275 and a target of 6170. We will add to these short positions only below 6130.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 23 Oct 2013 - Bulls retain their control

Nifty continues its range bound consolidation and maintains the Bullish bias.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls still need that final thrust. The Nifty opened gap down of 13 points at 6192 and traded in a very narrow range of less than 40 points for the entire trading session. However, having made a higher high and a higher low, technically the Nifty has maintained its bullish stance. None of our trades as planned got triggered and we were happy sitting out watching the trade terminal.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +176 to +154 Bear Power rises from +120 to +116 indicating that the Bulls have retained their control and are ready for more. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6245 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Tuesday 22 October 2013

Nifty - 22 Oct 2013 - Bulls need one final thrust

Nifty undergoes intraday consolidation. Bulls need a final thrust for more upsides.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls did turn the tide in their favor. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 13 points at 6202 and then saw some profit booking and traded within a confined range of 55 points making a intraday low of 6163 and closing positive with a gain of 16 points at 6205. The Nifty continued to maintain its bullish stance thus. None of our trading plans got triggered and we preferred to wait for our chance.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +185 to +176 Bear Power also reduces from +55 to +120 indicating that this profit booking has weakened the Bears further while making only a marginal dent to the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6250 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6080 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone and are still pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may stall. The MACD continues to remain positive with the histogram also remaining above zero. The ADX is suggesting a stalling of the Bullish momentum but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now raised to 5900.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6155 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6130 and a target of 6230. We will add to these long positions only above 6280.

b) Around 6255 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6280 and a target of 6160. We will add to these short positions only below 6130.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 22 Oct 2013 - Bulls need one final thrust

Nifty undergoes intraday consolidation. Bulls need a final thrust for more upsides.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls did turn the tide in their favor. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 13 points at 6202 and then saw some profit booking and traded within a confined range of 55 points making a intraday low of 6163 and closing positive with a gain of 16 points at 6205. The Nifty continued to maintain its bullish stance thus. None of our trading plans got triggered and we preferred to wait for our chance.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +185 to +176 Bear Power also reduces from +55 to +120 indicating that this profit booking has weakened the Bears further while making only a marginal dent to the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6250 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6080 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone and are still pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Monday 21 October 2013

Nifty - 21 Oct 2013 - Bulls turn the tide

After a two day down move, the Bulls take over the control. Volatility may unleash.

On Friday, we expected the Bias to turn Bearish. However, the Bulls had other ideas. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 25 points at 6071 and then swiftly moved across our identified resistance zone of 6095 to 6115 and then never looked back. The Nifty closed at 6189 after making a high of 6201 making a gain of 144 points. We took a trade on the long side at 6122 and booked out with a profit of 60 points at the EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +124 to +185 Bear Power reduces from +45 to +55 indicating that the Bulls are in control of the Nifty and that the Bears need to come in thick and fast to be of some semblance in this scenario. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6230 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 6040 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics remain in the overbought zone and are pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may continue. The MACD has also started rising with the histogram remaining in the positive. The ADX is also suggesting a rise in the Bullish momentum and a loss of Bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now raised to 5856.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6135 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6110 and a target of 6225. We will add to these long positions only above 6265.

b) Around 6245 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6265 and a target of 6150. We will add to these short positions only below 6110.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 21 Oct 2013 - Bulls turn the tide

After a two day down move, the Bulls take over the control. Volatility may unleash.

On Friday, we expected the Bias to turn Bearish. However, the Bulls had other ideas. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 25 points at 6071 and then swiftly moved across our identified resistance zone of 6095 to 6115 and then never looked back. The Nifty closed at 6189 after making a high of 6201 making a gain of 144 points. We took a trade on the long side at 6122 and booked out with a profit of 60 points at the EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +124 to +185 Bear Power reduces from +45 to +55 indicating that the Bulls are in control of the Nifty and that the Bears need to come in thick and fast to be of some semblance in this scenario. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6230 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 6040 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics remain in the overbought zone and are pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 18 October 2013

Nifty - 18 Oct 2013 - Bias turns Bearish

Nifty exhibits distributive patterns and looks getting ready for a downfall.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained range bound for the entire trading session. The Nifty opened on a positive note with a gap up of 9 points and traded within a range but bearishly. The Nifty made a high of 6111 and a low of 6033 before closing at 6046 with a loss of 43 points. None of our trading plans was triggered and we did not enter the trading arena yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +179 to +124 Bear Power rises from +79 to +45 indicating that the Bears are slowly recovering although the control still lies with the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6125 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5995 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty took support at its 8EMA(6027) and closed above all its key EMAs as well as above all its key DMAs too.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD continues to point horizontal with the histogram remaining positive but reducing. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the Bulls and gain of Bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with is buy signal with the SL now raised to 5818.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6090 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6115 and a target of 5990. We will add to these short positions only below 5975.

b) Around 5990 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5975 and a target of 6070. We will add to these long positions only above 6115.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 18 Oct 2013 - Bias turns Bearish

Nifty exhibits distributive patterns and looks getting ready for a downfall.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained range bound for the entire trading session. The Nifty opened on a positive note with a gap up of 9 points and traded within a range but bearishly. The Nifty made a high of 6111 and a low of 6033 before closing at 6046 with a loss of 43 points. None of our trading plans was triggered and we did not enter the trading arena yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +179 to +124 Bear Power rises from +79 to +45 indicating that the Bears are slowly recovering although the control still lies with the Bulls. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6125 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5995 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty took support at its 8EMA(6027) and closed above all its key EMAs as well as above all its key DMAs too.

Thursday 17 October 2013

Nifty - 17 Oct 2013 - Nifty may remain rangebound

Post a couple of volatile sessions, the Nifty is expected to be range-bound.

As discussed on Monday, the Nifty remained volatile for the next couple of trading sessions in a 100 point range between 6156 and 6056. On Tuesday, the Nifty closed with a loss of 24 points at 6089, which is almost the mid point of the above range. We took a trading holiday on Tuesday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +165 to +179 Bear Power also rises from +124 to +79 indicating that the Nifty is undergoing a major tussle between the Bulls and the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6175 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and have just given a negative signal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD continues to point horizontal with a positive bias as the histogram continues to remain positive. The ADX is suggesting a flattening of the Bullish momentum but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now raised to 5780.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6130 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6160 and a target of 6035. We will add to these short positions only below 6015.

b) Around 6030 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6015 and a target of 6115. We will add to these long positions only above 6160.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 17 Oct 2013 - Nifty may remain rangebound

Post a couple of volatile sessions, the Nifty is expected to be range-bound.

As discussed on Monday, the Nifty remained volatile for the next couple of trading sessions in a 100 point range between 6156 and 6056. On Tuesday, the Nifty closed with a loss of 24 points at 6089, which is almost the mid point of the above range. We took a trading holiday on Tuesday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +165 to +179 Bear Power also rises from +124 to +79 indicating that the Nifty is undergoing a major tussle between the Bulls and the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6175 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and have just given a negative signal.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Monday 14 October 2013

Nifty - 14 Oct 2013 - Volatile session ahead

Nifty forms a hanging man in the supply zone. Expect a volatile session today.

As discussed on Friday, we expected the global rally to power the Nifty, and that is exactly what happened. The Nifty opened with a hefty positive gap up of 84 points at 6105 and traded bullish for the entire trading session. The first hour low of 6046 was quickly bought into and the Nifty regained its highs late in the evening making a high of 6108 before closing at 6096 with a gain of 75 points. We took a trade on the short side and booked out with a minor loss of 10 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +128 to +174 Bear Power reduces from +74 to +113 indicating that the Bulls are in full control and that the Bears have their work cut out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6135 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5955 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are now in the overbought zone and are still pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may continue. However, the Nifty has formed a hanging man which will keep the Bears in the reckoning. The MACD has given a positive signal with the histogram also rising above the zero line. The ADX is also signalling a rise in the Bullish momentum. The ADX is also giving out its buy signal with the SL now raised to 5724.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6045 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6020 and a target of 6130. We will add to these long positions only above 6175.

b) Around 6155 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6175 and a target of 6055. We will add to these short positions only below 6020.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 14 Oct 2013 - Volatile session ahead

Nifty forms a hanging man in the supply zone. Expect a volatile session today.

As discussed on Friday, we expected the global rally to power the Nifty, and that is exactly what happened. The Nifty opened with a hefty positive gap up of 84 points at 6105 and traded bullish for the entire trading session. The first hour low of 6046 was quickly bought into and the Nifty regained its highs late in the evening making a high of 6108 before closing at 6096 with a gain of 75 points. We took a trade on the short side and booked out with a minor loss of 10 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +128 to +174 Bear Power reduces from +74 to +113 indicating that the Bulls are in full control and that the Bears have their work cut out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6135 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5955 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are now in the overbought zone and are still pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Friday 11 October 2013

Nifty - 11 Oct 2013 - Global rally to power Nifty

Bulls maintain their advantage and now a global rally comes to their aid.

As discussed yesterday, we expected roadblocks ahead for bulls. The Nifty opened at 6001 with a minor negative gap of 6 points and made a quick high of 6031 and then traded bearishly. However, the Bears were not able to breach the support at 5979 and the Nifty after making a low of 5980 recovered and traded in a narrow range. The Nifty finally closed bullishly at 6021 with a gain of 14 points. We did not take any trade yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +129 to +128 Bear Power also reduces from -10 to +74 indicating that the Bulls have held their control over the Nifty and now the Bulls are out of their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6055 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5925 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.





4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the small rise in the Nifty indicating that the market is waiting in high anticipation. The MACD continues to point horizontal with the histogram now moving into the positive. The ADX is suggesting loss of momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal with the SL now shifted up to 5708.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6080 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6105 and a target of 5985. We will add to these short positions only below 5935.

b) Around 5955 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5935 and a target of 6055. We will add to these long positions only above 6105.

Happy Trading !!!

 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.