Nifty - 03 Aug 2012 - Sell on rise continues

Amidst contracting range and falling volumes, Nifty ready to start a down-move.

As discussed yesterday, "Nifty peaking out", we saw the Nifty open with a mild gap down and then trade the entire day within a small trading range with extremely low volumes. As the Nifty was not able to overcome the previous day's high, this becomes the first indication of a weakness creeping in the Nifty. Will the Bears have enough momentum going with them to challenge the weekly open and low of 5130? 

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +63 to +48 Bear Power rises from +30 to +20, indicating the weakness in Bears. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5250 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5190 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs, indicating the strength of the Bulls.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are threatening of a bearish crossover.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have become extremely low with the Nifty remaining in a tight range, indicating indecision at the top of the chart. The MACD is starting to flatten out, indicating lack of momentum for the up-move. The ADX is also suggesting drop in the momentum and equilibrium in the bullish and the bearish trend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now pegged at 5057.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5225, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5245 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.

b) Around 5165, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5155 and a target of 5225. We will add to these long positions only above 5250.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 03 Aug 2012 - Sell on rise continues

Amidst contracting range and falling volumes, Nifty ready to start a down-move.

As discussed yesterday, "Nifty peaking out", we saw the Nifty open with a mild gap down and then trade the entire day within a small trading range with extremely low volumes. As the Nifty was not able to overcome the previous day's high, this becomes the first indication of a weakness creeping in the Nifty. Will the Bears have enough momentum going with them to challenge the weekly open and low of 5130? 

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +63 to +48 Bear Power rises from +30 to +20, indicating the weakness in Bears. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5250 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5190 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs, indicating the strength of the Bulls.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are threatening of a bearish crossover.

Nifty - 02 Aug 2012 - Nifty peaking out

At 5240, Nifty seems to have peaked out and some profit booking is expected.

Yesterday, we were absent from the blog and from trading due to some social commitments. The Nifty however, continued to grind in a range of 35 points with extremely low volumes in a listless trading session. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open flat and is likely to remain under pressure, as profit booking might take center stage.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +61 to +63 Bear Power reduces from -19 to +30, indicating that the Bears are now out of their safe zone and need to strike back soon. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5260 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5190 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs. The convergence of all its key EMAs at 5183 is a key level to be watched out for.

3) The stochastics are fast approaching the overbought zone, but are still pointing upwards.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased in yesterday's rise making the rise less sustainable. The MACD is suggesting resumption of a down trend by pointing downwards. The ADX is suggesting loss of trend momentum, with equal bias towards the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its Buy signal with a SL of 5045.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5250 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5265 and a target of 5190. We will add to these short positions only below 5180.

b) Around 5190, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5245. We will add to these long positions only above 5270.

 Happy Trading !!!

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 02 Aug 2012 - Nifty peaking out

At 5240, Nifty seems to have peaked out and some profit booking is expected.

Yesterday, we were absent from the blog and from trading due to some social commitments. The Nifty however, continued to grind in a range of 35 points with extremely low volumes in a listless trading session. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open flat and is likely to remain under pressure, as profit booking might take center stage.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +61 to +63 Bear Power reduces from -19 to +30, indicating that the Bears are now out of their safe zone and need to strike back soon. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5260 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5190 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs. The convergence of all its key EMAs at 5183 is a key level to be watched out for.

3) The stochastics are fast approaching the overbought zone, but are still pointing upwards.

Nifty - 31 Jul 2012 - Still sell on rise

With the Nifty closing at the downward sloping channel top, sell on rise to continue.

As discussed yesterday, we found the Nifty trading "Back into the range" of 5050 to 5200. The Nifty opened with a positive gap and never did look back during the entire trading session, and closed with a whopping gain of 100 points. However, it has now stopped at the top of the downward sloping trading channel, and we expect a pause if not resumption of the downward move.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -8 to +43 Bear Power reduces from -81 to -36 making the Bulls and the Bears now equidistant and within their own respective zones, increasing the chances of volatility. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5220 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5125 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are back out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have again depleted with the rise in the Nifty making the upward move less sustainable. The MACD is rising but is still in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum to the current trend, and is favoring the Bears yet. The Parabolic SAR has turned into a Buy signal with a SL at 5032.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5180, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5160 and a target of 5225. We will add to these long positions only above 5255.

b) Around 5240, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 31 Jul 2012 - Still sell on rise

With the Nifty closing at the downward sloping channel top, sell on rise to continue.

As discussed yesterday, we found the Nifty trading "Back into the range" of 5050 to 5200. The Nifty opened with a positive gap and never did look back during the entire trading session, and closed with a whopping gain of 100 points. However, it has now stopped at the top of the downward sloping trading channel, and we expect a pause if not resumption of the downward move.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -8 to +43 Bear Power reduces from -81 to -36 making the Bulls and the Bears now equidistant and within their own respective zones, increasing the chances of volatility. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5220 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5125 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are back out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

Nifty - 30 Jul 2012 - Back to range bound moves

Weak bulls and non aggressive bears may ensure that the Nifty remains ranged.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Cautious start to the fresh series", with the Nifty opening with a 80 point positive gap up and then staging ahead to a high of 5150 about 110 points higher than the previous close, only to give up 50 points from that gain and close at just below 5100. Today, again given the strong global cues and weak technicals, a repeat of Friday is expected by us.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -42 to -8 Bear Power reduces from -135 to -81, indicating that in-spite of the bounce, Bulls are still out of their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5150 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5065 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is still trading below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold region but are pointing upwards.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty. The MACD continues to fall. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the Bears and a gain of momentum for the Bulls, however, the Bear momentum is still much above the Bull momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL put at 5166.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5140, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5155 and a target of 5085. We will add to these short positions only below 5045.

b) Around 5065, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5045 and a target of 5115. We will add to these long positions only above 5160.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 30 Jul 2012 - Back to range bound moves

Weak bulls and non aggressive bears may ensure that the Nifty remains ranged.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Cautious start to the fresh series", with the Nifty opening with a 80 point positive gap up and then staging ahead to a high of 5150 about 110 points higher than the previous close, only to give up 50 points from that gain and close at just below 5100. Today, again given the strong global cues and weak technicals, a repeat of Friday is expected by us.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -42 to -8 Bear Power reduces from -135 to -81, indicating that in-spite of the bounce, Bulls are still out of their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5150 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5065 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is still trading below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold region but are pointing upwards.