AD Code

Friday 29 June 2012

Nifty - 29 Jun 2012 - Trend setting day

After 3 days of indecision, Nifty may set the trend today. Bullish only till 5115 holds.

As discussed yesterday, we saw a volatile expiry day, with the Nifty opening and closing at almost the same levels, and gyrating wildly within a small trading range of just 35 points. In fact, it turned out to be a dull expiry, without any fireworks that are seen normally. As such, the technical resistances and supports which were set about three days ago, still hold and any further direction would be clear only when these are breached. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +60 to +52 Bear Power rises from +30 to +18, indicating that the Bulls are still strong, and that the Bears are also getting stronger. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5175 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5110 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and its 50 and 200 DMAs. The 100 DMA which is at 5193 could pose as a near term resistance.

3) The stochastics are just below the overbought zone and are pointing horizontally, indicating indecision in the markets as yet.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterdays indecisive move on the Nifty, indicating that a major move is likely to unfold shortly. The MACD continues to remain in the positive, whereas the histogram continues to fall, indicating that weakness could creep in shortly. The ADX is also suggesting a weakening of the up-move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal, with a indication of change in signal below 5113.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5130, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5115 and a target of 5175. We will add to these long positions only above 5195.

b) Around 5180, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5195 and a target of 5120. We will add to these short positions only below 5095.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 29 Jun 2012 - Trend setting day

After 3 days of indecision, Nifty may set the trend today. Bullish only till 5115 holds.

As discussed yesterday, we saw a volatile expiry day, with the Nifty opening and closing at almost the same levels, and gyrating wildly within a small trading range of just 35 points. In fact, it turned out to be a dull expiry, without any fireworks that are seen normally. As such, the technical resistances and supports which were set about three days ago, still hold and any further direction would be clear only when these are breached. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +60 to +52 Bear Power rises from +30 to +18, indicating that the Bulls are still strong, and that the Bears are also getting stronger. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5175 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5110 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and its 50 and 200 DMAs. The 100 DMA which is at 5193 could pose as a near term resistance.

3) The stochastics are just below the overbought zone and are pointing horizontally, indicating indecision in the markets as yet.

Thursday 28 June 2012

Nifty - 28 Jun 2012 - Volatile expiry expected

After two narrow sessions, Nifty heading for resistances on the day of series expiry.

As discussed yesterday, we again saw some weakness creeping in on the Nifty, with the Nifty opening higher and right into the resistance band and then closing below the opening mark. As the Nifty opened between the entry and SL points of our plan (a), it got triggered and we could garner a small profit of 30 points with a better risk to reward ratio. Today, being the day of expiry, we could see volatility on the bourses.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +41 to +60 Bear Power reduces from +2 to +29, indicating that the Bears have again lost their advantage, however the Bulls have not gained much from it though. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5175 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5095 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs. The 100 DMA at 5195 is likely to be the resistance that needs to be conquered by the Bulls for any major up-move.

3) The stochastics are just below the overbought zone, with the fast stochastics pointing upwards and the slow stochastics pointing downwards, indicating the volatility that could unleash.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes keep on reducing with the Nifty actually going nowhere, indicating exhaustion. The MACD continues to be in the positive but continues to decline, indicating a looming threat of a down-move. The ADX, however, is suggesting a strong momentum for the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal, however this signal has flattened out at 5096.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under. 

a) Around 5190, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5205 and a target of 5100. We will add to these short positions only below 5095.

b) Around 5110, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5095 and a target of 5165. We will add to these long positions only above 5205.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 28 Jun 2012 - Volatile expiry expected

After two narrow sessions, Nifty heading for resistances on the day of series expiry.

As discussed yesterday, we again saw some weakness creeping in on the Nifty, with the Nifty opening higher and right into the resistance band and then closing below the opening mark. As the Nifty opened between the entry and SL points of our plan (a), it got triggered and we could garner a small profit of 30 points with a better risk to reward ratio. Today, being the day of expiry, we could see volatility on the bourses.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +41 to +60 Bear Power reduces from +2 to +29, indicating that the Bears have again lost their advantage, however the Bulls have not gained much from it though. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5175 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5095 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs. The 100 DMA at 5195 is likely to be the resistance that needs to be conquered by the Bulls for any major up-move.

3) The stochastics are just below the overbought zone, with the fast stochastics pointing upwards and the slow stochastics pointing downwards, indicating the volatility that could unleash.

Wednesday 27 June 2012

Nifty - 27 Jun 2012 - Weakness creeps in

As expiry approaches, the Bears are getting a look in. Below 5115 weakness starts.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Range-bound Bullish undertones" with the Nifty trading in a very small range of 40 points and closing with a minor gain of 6 points. On such low ranged days, none of our trading plans get triggered usually, and we are kept watching from the sidelines. For today, Nifty trading below 5115 will be the first indication of weakness, and would get confirmed with a breach of 5090. Nifty could grind in a small range if the Bears are not able to breach 5090.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +106 to +41 Bear Power rises from +17 to +2, indicating that some weakness is entering into the Nifty and the Bears are just on the verge of regaining safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5145 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to recover their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs, which is a bullish indication. It is also closing above its 50 and 100 DMAs. 

3) The stochastics are just out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that a downfall is likely now.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the Nifty going nowhere. The MACD is in the positive, but is looking to flatten out, which indicates the creeping weakness. The ADX is also suggesting a rise in momentum for the Bears and a fall in momentum for the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR holds onto its buy signal, but it will change if the Nifty breaches 5090.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5145, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5100. We will add to these short positions only below 5090.

b) Around 5100, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5090 and a target of 5140. We will add to these long positions only above 5185. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 27 Jun 2012 - Weakness creeps in

As expiry approaches, the Bears are getting a look in. Below 5115 weakness starts.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Range-bound Bullish undertones" with the Nifty trading in a very small range of 40 points and closing with a minor gain of 6 points. On such low ranged days, none of our trading plans get triggered usually, and we are kept watching from the sidelines. For today, Nifty trading below 5115 will be the first indication of weakness, and would get confirmed with a breach of 5090. Nifty could grind in a small range if the Bears are not able to breach 5090.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +106 to +41 Bear Power rises from +17 to +2, indicating that some weakness is entering into the Nifty and the Bears are just on the verge of regaining safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5145 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to recover their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs, which is a bullish indication. It is also closing above its 50 and 100 DMAs. 

3) The stochastics are just out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that a downfall is likely now.

Tuesday 26 June 2012

Nifty - 26 Jun 2012 - Range bound Bullish undertones

In spite of yesterday's fall, the Nifty remains Bullish as long as 5065 holds.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained range-bound for most of the trading session, except in the last hour when it sold off. Even at the end of the sell-off, the Bears were unable to breach the previous day's low, which indicates the strength of the Bulls. As the Nifty opened with a positive gap and rushed into the resistance zone, our plan (b) got triggered and missed the target by just 5 points. We were, of course, pleased to mop up a profit of 70 points by the end of the day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty may open with a gap down.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +76 to +106 Bear Power reduces from +10 to +17, indicating that the Bears have actually lost strength despite yesterday's fall. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5200 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above its key EMAs and its 50 and 100 DMA. The 50 DMA at 5064 may offer much needed support to the Nifty.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, but are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased in yesterday's fall indicating the bullish undertones on the Nifty. The MACD histogram is falling indicating a weakening up-move. The ADX is suggesting a strong momentum for the up-move. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its buy signal. However, it is very near to its turnaround point of 5094.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5065, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5045 and a target of 5145. We will add to these long positions only above 5185. 

b) Around 5165, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5185 and a target of 5080. We will add to these short positions only below 5045.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 26 Jun 2012 - Range bound Bullish undertones

In spite of yesterday's fall, the Nifty remains Bullish as long as 5065 holds.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained range-bound for most of the trading session, except in the last hour when it sold off. Even at the end of the sell-off, the Bears were unable to breach the previous day's low, which indicates the strength of the Bulls. As the Nifty opened with a positive gap and rushed into the resistance zone, our plan (b) got triggered and missed the target by just 5 points. We were, of course, pleased to mop up a profit of 70 points by the end of the day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty may open with a gap down.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +76 to +106 Bear Power reduces from +10 to +17, indicating that the Bears have actually lost strength despite yesterday's fall. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5200 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above its key EMAs and its 50 and 100 DMA. The 50 DMA at 5064 may offer much needed support to the Nifty.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, but are pointing downwards.

Monday 25 June 2012

Nifty - 25 Jun 2012 - Nifty still rangebound

Mixed technical signals and mixed global cues suggest, Nifty to be range-bound.

As discussed on Friday, there was a "Volatile end to the week" with the Nifty gyrating wildly within a 65 point range after a very very weak opening, and closing with a minute loss of 19 points. Our plan (a) got triggered, but did miss the target by 25 points. We were happy to book a small profit of 45 points by the end of the day. Today again, the Nifty is likely to be playing out in a similar range, as we enter the series expiry week.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +96 to +76 Bear Power rises from +20 to +10, indicating that the Bears are gradually and quietly gaining strength, however the Bulls are not giving up yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5165 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and its 50 and 200 DMA. The 100DMA at 5198 seems to be the next resistance for any big up-move.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone and are pointing downwards now.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the Nifty being range bound, indicating increasing indecision amongst the market participants. The MACD is indicating peaking out, with the Histogram starting to fall. The ADX is suggesting a slight loss of momentum for the up-move, but is showing strengthening of the market trend ahead. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out a Buy signal, but this could turn if the Nifty trades below 5075.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5090, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5075 and a target of 5180. We will add to these long positions only above 5215.

b) Around 5185, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5215 and a target of 5100. We will add to these short positions only below 5075.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 25 Jun 2012 - Nifty still rangebound

Mixed technical signals and mixed global cues suggest, Nifty to be range-bound.

As discussed on Friday, there was a "Volatile end to the week" with the Nifty gyrating wildly within a 65 point range after a very very weak opening, and closing with a minute loss of 19 points. Our plan (a) got triggered, but did miss the target by 25 points. We were happy to book a small profit of 45 points by the end of the day. Today again, the Nifty is likely to be playing out in a similar range, as we enter the series expiry week.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +96 to +76 Bear Power rises from +20 to +10, indicating that the Bears are gradually and quietly gaining strength, however the Bulls are not giving up yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5165 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and its 50 and 200 DMA. The 100DMA at 5198 seems to be the next resistance for any big up-move.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone and are pointing downwards now.

Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.