Nifty Weekly Review Right at the start of the week, on 14th Nov 2011, our head line read "Fresh, clear & sustainable Sell signal emerges". And what a week we had after that. During the week, the Nifty lost 263 points. The high of the week 5229 and the low 4838 had a range of about 590 points between them, showing how accurate our reading of the technical charts was. During the week, we also had suggested that "the Nifty would Gap down and Stay down" and also that "the Sell on rally would continue". The Nifty responded well, and we were able to book sizable profits during the entire week.We still believe, that the Bearish stranglehold will tighten on the Nifty. But we are prepared to let the Bulls have a short run before the Bears takeover again. In the above weekly chart, the technicals are clearly stacked against the Bulls. The volume in the latest large fall has increased. The MACD is in the positive and reducing. The ADX has just generated a fresh sustainable sell signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the next support is around 4610 and also the EMAs are stacked up against the Bulls.Although, considering that there is expiry of the current series during the week, there can be a small Bull run due to short covering, we believe that the majority of shorts have got covered. During the next week, and for that matter, for some more weeks to come, we will have our bias towards the bears, till the charts suggest otherwise.We are, at present, happy with our performance, and believe strongly, that , there is no need to overstretch one's limits to book handsome profits in this market on a regular basis. The need of the hour is patience with agility. Sounds like a oxymoron? Well, so are the markets.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty Weekly Review
Right at the start of the week, on 14th Nov 2011, our head line read "Fresh, clear & sustainable Sell signal emerges". And what a week we had after that. During the week, the Nifty lost 263 points. The high of the week 5229 and the low 4838 had a range of about 590 points between them, showing how accurate our reading of the technical charts was. During the week, we also had suggested that "the Nifty would Gap down and Stay down" and also that "the Sell on rally would continue". The Nifty responded well, and we were able to book sizable profits during the entire week.
We still believe, that the Bearish stranglehold will tighten on the Nifty. But we are prepared to let the Bulls have a short run before the Bears takeover again.
In the above weekly chart, the technicals are clearly stacked against the Bulls. The volume in the latest large fall has increased. The MACD is in the positive and reducing. The ADX has just generated a fresh sustainable sell signal. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the next support is around 4610 and also the EMAs are stacked up against the Bulls.
Although, considering that there is expiry of the current series during the week, there can be a small Bull run due to short covering, we believe that the majority of shorts have got covered. During the next week, and for that matter, for some more weeks to come, we will have our bias towards the bears, till the charts suggest otherwise.
We are, at present, happy with our performance, and believe strongly, that , there is no need to overstretch one's limits to book handsome profits in this market on a regular basis. The need of the hour is patience with agility. Sounds like a oxymoron? Well, so are the markets.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty may try to stage a small bounce-back, but selling pressure will resume. As discussed yesterday, the Bearish Stranglehold tightened over the nifty, and the Nifty nosedived to 4919 before closing at 4935. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open even more in negative. The technicals, as of now, are not giving out any trend reversal signals. Hence, although some traders and experts might foresee a bounce-back, we do not believe that the downtrend is any near to its end. Let us explain why.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases slightly from -97 to -93. Bear Power increases from -173 to -210. This shows, that the Bulls tried to regain lost ground and failed miserably. The bearish stranglehold has indeed tightened. No signs of this loosening yet.2) The EMAs are still pointing downwards, and are about to form another stronger sell signal. The Nifty is trading below all its DMAs and the 50 DMA which was the only one pointing upwards has now reversed and started to point downwards.3) The stochastics are well and truly in the oversold zone. This is the indicator which is favoring the Bulls.4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands indicate that the down-force is piercing the support line. This would turn into a reversal signal, only when the bars leave the bottom Bollinger band well and truly. The MACD and the ADX are signalling a sustainable downward movement on the Nifty.5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.a) Around 4960 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 4875. We will add to these short positions only below 4845.b) We will refrain from opening fresh long positions for the day. However, we will cover our existing short positions around 4875 and wait for re-entry on higher levels.c) We will not look out for a trend reversal during the day as of now, and wait for the day end charts to give out a trend reversal signal. The ADX and the Elder Ray are known to give out trend reversal signals in advance, and we will rely on them as of now.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty may try to stage a small bounce-back, but selling pressure will resume.
As discussed yesterday, the Bearish Stranglehold tightened over the nifty, and the Nifty nosedived to 4919 before closing at 4935. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open even more in negative. The technicals, as of now, are not giving out any trend reversal signals. Hence, although some traders and experts might foresee a bounce-back, we do not believe that the downtrend is any near to its end. Let us explain why.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases slightly from -97 to -93. Bear Power increases from -173 to -210. This shows, that the Bulls tried to regain lost ground and failed miserably. The bearish stranglehold has indeed tightened. No signs of this loosening yet.
2) The EMAs are still pointing downwards, and are about to form another stronger sell signal. The Nifty is trading below all its DMAs and the 50 DMA which was the only one pointing upwards has now reversed and started to point downwards.
3) The stochastics are well and truly in the oversold zone. This is the indicator which is favoring the Bulls.
4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands indicate that the down-force is piercing the support line. This would turn into a reversal signal, only when the bars leave the bottom Bollinger band well and truly. The MACD and the ADX are signalling a sustainable downward movement on the Nifty.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Around 4960 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 4875. We will add to these short positions only below 4845.
b) We will refrain from opening fresh long positions for the day. However, we will cover our existing short positions around 4875 and wait for re-entry on higher levels.
c) We will not look out for a trend reversal during the day as of now, and wait for the day end charts to give out a trend reversal signal. The ADX and the Elder Ray are known to give out trend reversal signals in advance, and we will rely on them as of now.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty to trade in a range with negative bias As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened almost flat, and tried at least 3 times during the day to rally and come in the positive, but every rally got sold off and the Nifty closed in the negative at 5030. Today, again, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open lower.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -25 to -97 Bear Power rises from -131 to -173. This indicates, that the Bears are getting their grip stronger, while the Bulls are getting weak as they are now well into the negative territory.2) The EMAs are pointing downwards. Yesterday, the Nifty has traded and closed below 5070 the 50 DMA. Now this can start to act as a major resistance to any up-move. In fact, in yesterday's trade, the EMAs have generated their own independent sell signal.3) The stochastics are now well into the oversold zone, indicating that markets support is just round the corner. Yet another signal indicating consolidation ahead.4) In the above chart, the volumes continue to be constant with falling prices, indicating continuation of the downtrend. The MACD and the ADX are also confirming rise in momentum of the down trend. However, the Bollinger Bands suggest that there is support just near yesterday's bottom.5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as undera) Around 4970, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4945 and a target of 5040. We will add to these positions only above 5080.b) Around 5050 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5075 and a target of 4990. We will add to these positions only below 4940.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty to trade in a range with negative bias
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened almost flat, and tried at least 3 times during the day to rally and come in the positive, but every rally got sold off and the Nifty closed in the negative at 5030. Today, again, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open lower.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -25 to -97 Bear Power rises from -131 to -173. This indicates, that the Bears are getting their grip stronger, while the Bulls are getting weak as they are now well into the negative territory.
2) The EMAs are pointing downwards. Yesterday, the Nifty has traded and closed below 5070 the 50 DMA. Now this can start to act as a major resistance to any up-move. In fact, in yesterday's trade, the EMAs have generated their own independent sell signal.
3) The stochastics are now well into the oversold zone, indicating that markets support is just round the corner. Yet another signal indicating consolidation ahead.
4) In the above chart, the volumes continue to be constant with falling prices, indicating continuation of the downtrend. The MACD and the ADX are also confirming rise in momentum of the down trend. However, the Bollinger Bands suggest that there is support just near yesterday's bottom.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under
a) Around 4970, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4945 and a target of 5040. We will add to these positions only above 5080.
b) Around 5050 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5075 and a target of 4990. We will add to these positions only below 4940.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Sell on Rally is the mantra for the time being. As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened gap down and stayed down for most of the trading session, before closing at our suggested support levels of 5070. The Nifty showed a high of 5159, which again was our suggested level for opening fresh shorts. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat, and then some short covering can be expected. However, "sell on rally" still remains the mantra for the time being as of now.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +26 to -25 Bear Power increases from -63 to -131. This indicates that the Bears are having a good grip on the Nifty, and that the Bulls are slipping down.2) The EMAs continue to point downwards. However, the near term EMAs are still trading above the far EMAs, which is a positive for the Bulls. Also, the Nifty has closed exactly at the 50 DMA, which also indicates some sort of support for the Nifty. The 100 and 200 DMAs also continue to point downwards.3) The fast stochastics have just entered the oversold zone, with the slow stochastics lagging just behind. This indicates, that there is still some more room for the Nifty to fall down.4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands also suggest some more room for the nifty to climb down. The MACD and the ADX are showing that the downward movement is gaining momentum and that it is sustainable.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5025, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5000 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5160.b) Around 5110, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5030. We will add to these short positions only below 4980.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Sell on Rally is the mantra for the time being.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened gap down and stayed down for most of the trading session, before closing at our suggested support levels of 5070. The Nifty showed a high of 5159, which again was our suggested level for opening fresh shorts. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat, and then some short covering can be expected. However, "sell on rally" still remains the mantra for the time being as of now.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +26 to -25 Bear Power increases from -63 to -131. This indicates that the Bears are having a good grip on the Nifty, and that the Bulls are slipping down.
2) The EMAs continue to point downwards. However, the near term EMAs are still trading above the far EMAs, which is a positive for the Bulls. Also, the Nifty has closed exactly at the 50 DMA, which also indicates some sort of support for the Nifty. The 100 and 200 DMAs also continue to point downwards.
3) The fast stochastics have just entered the oversold zone, with the slow stochastics lagging just behind. This indicates, that there is still some more room for the Nifty to fall down.
4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands also suggest some more room for the nifty to climb down. The MACD and the ADX are showing that the downward movement is gaining momentum and that it is sustainable.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5025, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5000 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5160.
b) Around 5110, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5030. We will add to these short positions only below 4980.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bearishness may slow down a bit, but Nifty may stay down yet. As discussed yesterday, the Nifty responded well to the freshly generated sell signal, and even after a positive opening, Nifty found resistance at 5230 and nosedived to 5140 by the end of the trading session, before closing at 5148. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening. 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -14 to +26 Bear Power reduces from -70 to -63. This indicates that there might be a slowdown in the momentum of the fall as bears take a breath before regrouping, however, it will be a major task for the Bulls to take the Nifty over yesterday's highs.2) The EMAs are still pointing downwards, and they are about to generate their own sell signal. The 100 and 200 DMAs continue to point downwards. The 50 DMA is sloping upwards, and could prove to be a support for today at 5066.3) The stochastics too are pointing downwards and are not yet in the overbought zone, indicating that there is still some more room for the Nifty to move downwards.4) In the chart above, the volumes have decreased in yesterday's fall. The ADX is also indicating a loss of momentum in the fall. However, the MACD is confirming yesterday's sell signal.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5080 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5055 and a target of 5150. We will add to these long positions only above 5180.b) Around 5160 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5185 and a target of 5070. We will add to these short positions only below 5050.c) We will wait patiently for markets to reach our start prices. We will trail the stop loss to preserve our profits, as volatility may increase today.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bearishness may slow down a bit, but Nifty may stay down yet.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty responded well to the freshly generated sell signal, and even after a positive opening, Nifty found resistance at 5230 and nosedived to 5140 by the end of the trading session, before closing at 5148. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -14 to +26 Bear Power reduces from -70 to -63. This indicates that there might be a slowdown in the momentum of the fall as bears take a breath before regrouping, however, it will be a major task for the Bulls to take the Nifty over yesterday's highs.
2) The EMAs are still pointing downwards, and they are about to generate their own sell signal. The 100 and 200 DMAs continue to point downwards. The 50 DMA is sloping upwards, and could prove to be a support for today at 5066.
3) The stochastics too are pointing downwards and are not yet in the overbought zone, indicating that there is still some more room for the Nifty to move downwards.
4) In the chart above, the volumes have decreased in yesterday's fall. The ADX is also indicating a loss of momentum in the fall. However, the MACD is confirming yesterday's sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5080 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5055 and a target of 5150. We will add to these long positions only above 5180.
b) Around 5160 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5185 and a target of 5070. We will add to these short positions only below 5050.
c) We will wait patiently for markets to reach our start prices. We will trail the stop loss to preserve our profits, as volatility may increase today.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty all set to nose dive and re-test the recent lows As discussed in our last post, immediate major fall unlikely, the Nifty opened 60 points down at 5160 but never really looked like collapsing, and eventually closed at 5169. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a positive gap. However, during the Friday's trade, the technicals have generated a fresh, clear and sustainable sell signal, which might lead the Nifty to nose dive and retest the recent lows.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +98 to -14 Bear Power increases from -8 to -70. This is the first time since 5th Oct 2011, that the Bulls have actually come into the negative zone. Also simultaneously, the Bears have now entered into their own territory. This shows that the Bears have now a good grip on the Nifty.2) The EMAs have now started pointing downwards. Also the 100 and 200 DMAs are pointing downwards. Indications of a sell off clearly written on the wall.3) The stochastics are right in the middle, but are pointing downwards, yet another sell signal.4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in the last two sessions with a falling nifty. The MACD has also generated a fresh sell signal. The ADX has also given out a fresh sell signal.5) During the recent past, we have never witnessed so many pin pointed directional signals from multiple technical indicators simultaneously. The markets are noted for defying technical signals for a initial small period of time. We need to safeguard ourselves from such deceiving moves.6) Based on the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under,a) Around 5230, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5250 and a target of 5140. We will add to these short positions only below 5100.b) We will be wary of opening any long positions for the day, and wait patiently for the technicals to re-confirm their sell signals. However, we may open a long position only above 5260, for a quick in and out type of trade. Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty all set to nose dive and re-test the recent lows
As discussed in our last post, immediate major fall unlikely, the Nifty opened 60 points down at 5160 but never really looked like collapsing, and eventually closed at 5169. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a positive gap. However, during the Friday's trade, the technicals have generated a fresh, clear and sustainable sell signal, which might lead the Nifty to nose dive and retest the recent lows.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +98 to -14 Bear Power increases from -8 to -70. This is the first time since 5th Oct 2011, that the Bulls have actually come into the negative zone. Also simultaneously, the Bears have now entered into their own territory. This shows that the Bears have now a good grip on the Nifty.
2) The EMAs have now started pointing downwards. Also the 100 and 200 DMAs are pointing downwards. Indications of a sell off clearly written on the wall.
3) The stochastics are right in the middle, but are pointing downwards, yet another sell signal.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in the last two sessions with a falling nifty. The MACD has also generated a fresh sell signal. The ADX has also given out a fresh sell signal.
5) During the recent past, we have never witnessed so many pin pointed directional signals from multiple technical indicators simultaneously. The markets are noted for defying technical signals for a initial small period of time. We need to safeguard ourselves from such deceiving moves.
6) Based on the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under,
a) Around 5230, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5250 and a target of 5140. We will add to these short positions only below 5100.
b) We will be wary of opening any long positions for the day, and wait patiently for the technicals to re-confirm their sell signals. However, we may open a long position only above 5260, for a quick in and out type of trade.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
