Nifty - 01 Aug 2014 - Glimpses of a down trend

Nifty shows glimpses of preparing for a down move. Test of supports at 7670 likely.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Expiry Jitters" on the bourses as the Nifty lingered in a 20 point zone at almost the top end of the trading range for most of the morning trading session, before nosediving to close near the day's lows. The Nifty opened with a 6 point negative gap down at 7785 and attempted to regain the green but failed multiple times. This failure boosted the Bears who then, in the afternoon trade, pushed the Nifty down to our identified support zone of 7740. There was an attempt to recovery which fizzled out quickly at 7760 and the Nifty again plunged to the lows of 7714 before closing at 7721 with a loss of 90 points against its previous close. We took a trade on the long side and lost 24 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +82 to +75 Bear Power also reduces from -9 to -4 indicating that both the parties have lost strength yet both are still in the reckon. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7795 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7710 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are on the boundary of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but above its 13EMA(7717) and 21EMA(7680) and has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 31 Jul 2014 - Expiry Jitters !!!

Nifty seems all set for a Bullish expiry as well as month end. Expect volatility to rise.

Just as we said in our yesterday's post that the "Bulls are losing their grip", the Bulls came back strongly in the last hour of trade to regain the green territory, albeit after the Bears had a foot in. The Nifty opened almost flat and continued to fall in the morning trade. After opening at 7746 the Nifty slipped to 7708 (just within our identified zone of support) by the afternoon and then traded sluggishly below 7730 for almost a couple of hours. Just when the Bears started to feel comfortable, the Bulls came back and the Nifty saw a huge rise of 90 points to make a high of 7799 before closing at 7791 with a gain of 43 points over its previous close. We took a trade on the long side and could book out with a profit of 80 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +96 to +82 Bear Power rises from +19 to -9 indicating that the Bears after just regaining their safe zone have allowed the Bulls to retain their advantage. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7815 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7700 to maintain their downwards momentum. 

2) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are pointing upwards yet.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 30 Jul 2014 - Bulls losing grip

Bulls are losing their grip on the Nifty slowly, yet Bears not looking strong either.

As discussed in our Friday's post "Bulls hold advantage", the Bulls after opening the Nifty in the green and sustaining the green for the first hour of trade, let loose their grip and let the Nifty breach previous two day's low, only to recover somewhat in the last hour of trade and keeping themselves in the run as yet. The Nifty opened at 7793, made a high of 7800 and then dipped to 7723, recovered to 7762 before closing at 7749 with a loss of 51 points against its previous close. We took a trade on the long side as per our trading plan and could book out with a profit of 25 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +144 to +96 Bear Power rises from +52 to +19 indicating that though the Bulls are losing that grip, the Bears are yet to take advantage. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7805 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7710 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone and continue to point  downwards.  

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 28 Jul 2014 - Bulls hold advantage yet

Nifty gives away 40 points in a profit booking bout. Bulls still hold sway before expiry.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty "Ventured into newer orbits", but could not sustain there as a profit booking bout emerged at 7840 levels. The Nifty opened flat at 7828 and after making a quick top at 7840, plunged downwards to 7749, breaching the two day low formed at 7753, only to recover a major part of the fall and close at 7790 with a loss of 40 points over its previous close. We took a trade on the long side and booked a loss of 25 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +154 to +144 Bear Power rises from +90 to +52 indicating that the Bulls are stopping for breath, but the Bears are still far away from safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7855 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7705 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are well and deep into the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.