Nifty ready to break the range on the upside As discussed in our last post, the RBI played the role of the trend decider. Also we had earlier suggested that the Nifty's trading range is all set to widen which is being witnessed now. Having said that, it would be better to gauge upto what extent the Nifty can grow unheeded, and a little bit of technical analysis would be the order of the day.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +141 to +131 whereas the Bear Power also reduces from +16 to +107. This indicates that the Bulls have taken their well deserved break and are ready to take the Nifty way up from their recent highs.2) The EMAs are pointing well in the upward direction supporting the bullish move ahead.3) The stochastics are well into the overbought zone and show signs of some profit booking at higher levels.4) In the above chart, the MACD is showing an up-move, as also the ADX is supporting the up-move too. However, the -ADX is suggesting that there is no further room for it to fall and that the Bears may be on the prowl just round the corner.5) There is a down-gap that needs to be filled in the range of 5220 5320. This gap will be filled very quickly and once this gap is filled, there could be a quick fall in the Nifty. We will have to be ready for that development to happen. 5) Keeping the above in view, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.a) Around 5220, we will open fresh longs with a SL of 5190 and a target of 5310. We will add to these long positions only above 5335 for a fresh target of 5410.b) Below 5180 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5110. c) Around 5310 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5330 and a target of 5230.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty ready to break the range on the upside
As discussed in our last post, the RBI played the role of the trend decider. Also we had earlier suggested that the Nifty's trading range is all set to widen which is being witnessed now. Having said that, it would be better to gauge upto what extent the Nifty can grow unheeded, and a little bit of technical analysis would be the order of the day.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +141 to +131 whereas the Bear Power also reduces from +16 to +107. This indicates that the Bulls have taken their well deserved break and are ready to take the Nifty way up from their recent highs.
2) The EMAs are pointing well in the upward direction supporting the bullish move ahead.
3) The stochastics are well into the overbought zone and show signs of some profit booking at higher levels.
4) In the above chart, the MACD is showing an up-move, as also the ADX is supporting the up-move too. However, the -ADX is suggesting that there is no further room for it to fall and that the Bears may be on the prowl just round the corner.
5) There is a down-gap that needs to be filled in the range of 5220 5320. This gap will be filled very quickly and once this gap is filled, there could be a quick fall in the Nifty. We will have to be ready for that development to happen.
5) Keeping the above in view, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Around 5220, we will open fresh longs with a SL of 5190 and a target of 5310. We will add to these long positions only above 5335 for a fresh target of 5410.
b) Below 5180 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5110.
c) Around 5310 we will open fresh shorts with a SL of 5330 and a target of 5230.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Series expiry pegged on global cues and local news As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened with a good gap up but could not retain the gains and closed well below the opening mark. Clearly, the Nifty danced to the global cues. Today, with the RBI ready to announce its monetary review and policy going forward, amidst rising inflation and slowing growth, it could be another day of free fall unless the Bulls take the markets by the scruff of the neck.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased from +79 to +96 Bear Power reduced from -3 to +35. This should encourage the Bulls. However, the wall of worry is just around 50 points away.2) The EMAs have been flattening out and the DMAs have been pointing downwards in an environment of range-bound consolidation.3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone, and have remained so for the past 10 trading sessions. High time for a reversal suggested by that.4) In the above chart, the MACD and the ADX are showing slowing down of the up-move. But are not supporting a down-move either. 5) The RBI action, and its meeting or not meeting the street expectations is going to be the decider for the next direction.6) Considering the above, and considering the failure of the Nifty to sail across 5170, we have devised our trading plan as undera) We will open fresh shorts near 5140 with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5080 5030. We will add to our short positions below 5000 only.b) We will open fresh long positions in the next month series above 5190 with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5250 5320.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Series expiry pegged on global cues and local news
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened with a good gap up but could not retain the gains and closed well below the opening mark. Clearly, the Nifty danced to the global cues. Today, with the RBI ready to announce its monetary review and policy going forward, amidst rising inflation and slowing growth, it could be another day of free fall unless the Bulls take the markets by the scruff of the neck.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increased from +79 to +96 Bear Power reduced from -3 to +35. This should encourage the Bulls. However, the wall of worry is just around 50 points away.
2) The EMAs have been flattening out and the DMAs have been pointing downwards in an environment of range-bound consolidation.
3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone, and have remained so for the past 10 trading sessions. High time for a reversal suggested by that.
4) In the above chart, the MACD and the ADX are showing slowing down of the up-move. But are not supporting a down-move either.
5) The RBI action, and its meeting or not meeting the street expectations is going to be the decider for the next direction.
6) Considering the above, and considering the failure of the Nifty to sail across 5170, we have devised our trading plan as under
a) We will open fresh shorts near 5140 with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5080 5030. We will add to our short positions below 5000 only.
b) We will open fresh long positions in the next month series above 5190 with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5250 5320.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty may open gap up but may find difficult to retain the gains As discussed on Friday, the Nifty continued with its downturn exhibiting range-bound volatility. After opening with a up gap at 5107, the Nifty could not cross the wall of worry and started its downtrend again from 5121 to 5038 before closing at 5050. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a nice gap up of at least 70 to 80 points. But again the wall of worry will become a major hindrance, and we could see range-bound volatility yet again.1) The Elder Ray readings : The Bull Power increased from +59 to +79. The Bear Power reduced from -6 to -3. Again, both the Bulls and the Bears are safe in their respective zones, indicating a tug of war ahead, with the immediate trend supporting the Bulls and the overall trend in favor of the Bears.2) The EMAs are flattening out and the DMAs are continuing to point downwards, indicating a restart of the downtrend just around the corner.3) The stochastics are seeming to get out of the overbought zone, indicating a start of a fresh downward movement on the Nifty.4) In the above chart, both the volumes and the MACD are falling. The ADX is showing indecision, and the Bollinger Bands show a immediate resistance around 5200.5) Based on the above, and given that the Nifty will yet again open with a up gap post a downfall, our trading plan is based on the opening mark on the Nifty.a) Until the Nifty is not able to cross, 5170 or the opening mark, whichever is higher, we will look out for opening fresh shorts with a target of 5080 5030 and a SL of 5190.b) We will avoid building fresh long positions in the current series.c) If the Nifty breaks 5190 decisively, we will open fresh longs in the next month series with a SL of 5160 and a target of 5230 5320.Happy Trading !!!Happy Diwali !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty may open gap up but may find difficult to retain the gains
As discussed on Friday, the Nifty continued with its downturn exhibiting range-bound volatility. After opening with a up gap at 5107, the Nifty could not cross the wall of worry and started its downtrend again from 5121 to 5038 before closing at 5050. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a nice gap up of at least 70 to 80 points. But again the wall of worry will become a major hindrance, and we could see range-bound volatility yet again.
1) The Elder Ray readings : The Bull Power increased from +59 to +79. The Bear Power reduced from -6 to -3. Again, both the Bulls and the Bears are safe in their respective zones, indicating a tug of war ahead, with the immediate trend supporting the Bulls and the overall trend in favor of the Bears.
2) The EMAs are flattening out and the DMAs are continuing to point downwards, indicating a restart of the downtrend just around the corner.
3) The stochastics are seeming to get out of the overbought zone, indicating a start of a fresh downward movement on the Nifty.
4) In the above chart, both the volumes and the MACD are falling. The ADX is showing indecision, and the Bollinger Bands show a immediate resistance around 5200.
5) Based on the above, and given that the Nifty will yet again open with a up gap post a downfall, our trading plan is based on the opening mark on the Nifty.
a) Until the Nifty is not able to cross, 5170 or the opening mark, whichever is higher, we will look out for opening fresh shorts with a target of 5080 5030 and a SL of 5190.
b) We will avoid building fresh long positions in the current series.
c) If the Nifty breaks 5190 decisively, we will open fresh longs in the next month series with a SL of 5160 and a target of 5230 5320.
Happy Trading !!!
Happy Diwali !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty Weekly Review The Nifty closed the week with a loss of 82 points as compared to the gain of 244 points in the week previous to that. During the week, the Nifty met resistance at 5150 levels and found support at 5000 levels. Also there were multiple gap up and gap down openings during the week. The volatility was high yet range bound, with no clear trend being set. Also the overall medium term down trend has not broken on the weekly charts.On the weekly charts, there is still some resistance seen at 5180 5220 zone, which if crossed, can take the Nifty to 5320. However, any break of the 5100 levels now, can take down the Nifty to 4900 and below that to 4750 again.The next week involves expiry of the current series and a truncated trading week.With the Nifty in undecided zone, we will be avoiding to take any positions during this short trading sessions, and would try to focus on enjoying the Diwali festivals instead.Having said that, we would not be averse to taking some "Quick in Quick out" type of trades, using the implied volatility to our favour. So bad, we cannot pre plan these moves.Happy Diwali to all our readers and followers !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty Weekly Review
The Nifty closed the week with a loss of 82 points as compared to the gain of 244 points in the week previous to that. During the week, the Nifty met resistance at 5150 levels and found support at 5000 levels. Also there were multiple gap up and gap down openings during the week. The volatility was high yet range bound, with no clear trend being set. Also the overall medium term down trend has not broken on the weekly charts.
On the weekly charts, there is still some resistance seen at 5180 5220 zone, which if crossed, can take the Nifty to 5320. However, any break of the 5100 levels now, can take down the Nifty to 4900 and below that to 4750 again.
The next week involves expiry of the current series and a truncated trading week.
With the Nifty in undecided zone, we will be avoiding to take any positions during this short trading sessions, and would try to focus on enjoying the Diwali festivals instead.
Having said that, we would not be averse to taking some "Quick in Quick out" type of trades, using the implied volatility to our favour. So bad, we cannot pre plan these moves.
Happy Diwali to all our readers and followers !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
