Nifty - 22 Mar 2013 - Nifty continues to fall

Relief rally fails midway, and the Nifty continues to move south. Sell on rises.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the double bottom make its presence felt and the Nifty attempted the much expected relief rally. However, the Bulls could not sustain the Nifty above the crucial level of 5750, which emboldened the Bears and the Nifty got sold off, not only to breach the near term lows, but to close well below that level. We could garner a profit of 35 points during the 3 trades that we entered yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -78 to -42 Bear Power also rises from -141 to -152 indicating that the Bears are in the driver's seat, with the Bulls out of their safety zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5780 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5630 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA(5615)

3) The stochastics are now in the oversold zone and are still pointing downwards.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD continues to indicate a down move with the histogram also being in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a loss in the downwards momentum, but still is favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its sell signal with a SL of 5953.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) We will wait out for the day to get over, as the Nifty continues to get overstretched on the down side. 

Happy trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 22 Mar 2013 - Nifty continues to fall

Relief rally fails midway, and the Nifty continues to move south. Sell on rises.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the double bottom make its presence felt and the Nifty attempted the much expected relief rally. However, the Bulls could not sustain the Nifty above the crucial level of 5750, which emboldened the Bears and the Nifty got sold off, not only to breach the near term lows, but to close well below that level. We could garner a profit of 35 points during the 3 trades that we entered yesterday.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -78 to -42 Bear Power also rises from -141 to -152 indicating that the Bears are in the driver's seat, with the Bulls out of their safety zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5780 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5630 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA(5615)

3) The stochastics are now in the oversold zone and are still pointing downwards.

Nifty - 21 Mar 2013 - Double bottom in place

If the double bottom gets confirmed, the relief rally could get Nifty above 5800.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty displayed the whipsaw mode. After opening with a 5 point negative gap, the Nifty filled the gap swiftly, and then got sold off immediately to hit just above 5700 and then whipsawed violently in the 50 point range between 5690 and 5740. In the later half though, the Nifty breached 5690 to register a low at 5682 which is just 18 points above the recent lows. The Nifty closed at 5694 with a nett loss of 52 points. Our trading plan(a) got triggered, and as we did not pick up those quick profits of 25 30 points that was on offer during the whipsaw, we finally booked out with a minor loss of 10 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +18 to -78 Bear Power rises from -121 to -141 indicating that now the Bulls are out of breath as the Bears take the driving seat on the Nifty. For today however, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5805 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5660 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA which is rising by the day.

3) The fast stochastics are already in the oversold zone, while the slow stochastics are following closely.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased while the Nifty makes a double bottom, indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD is showing a negative bias with the histogram also falling in the negative. The ADX is showing a strong bias towards the down move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now pegged at 5965.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5700 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5670 and a target of 5765. We will add to these long positions only above 5820.

b) Around 5795 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5820 and a target of 5730. We will add to these short positions only below 5670.

Happy Trading !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 21 Mar 2013 - Double bottom in place

If the double bottom gets confirmed, the relief rally could get Nifty above 5800.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty displayed the whipsaw mode. After opening with a 5 point negative gap, the Nifty filled the gap swiftly, and then got sold off immediately to hit just above 5700 and then whipsawed violently in the 50 point range between 5690 and 5740. In the later half though, the Nifty breached 5690 to register a low at 5682 which is just 18 points above the recent lows. The Nifty closed at 5694 with a nett loss of 52 points. Our trading plan(a) got triggered, and as we did not pick up those quick profits of 25 30 points that was on offer during the whipsaw, we finally booked out with a minor loss of 10 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +18 to -78 Bear Power rises from -121 to -141 indicating that now the Bulls are out of breath as the Bears take the driving seat on the Nifty. For today however, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5805 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5660 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA which is rising by the day.

3) The fast stochastics are already in the oversold zone, while the slow stochastics are following closely.

Nifty - 20 Mar 2013 - Whipsaw mode on

Nifty is in a peculiar state of whipsaw, with a widening range difficult to trade.

We have been on a mini vacation. During this period, the Nifty has lost most of its gains made during the rise from 5664 to 5971 and has made a higher low yesterday at 5724 with 5971 itself being a lower top. On the weekly time frame, these two levels are going to play a key role going forward. The Nifty has in face, become difficult to trade as the trading range is widening and the momentum is diminishing. This is also evident by the fact that on the daily timeframe, the Nifty has given two bearish and one bullish engulf in the past two weeks. We have a small long position which is staring at a loss and we added one lot of call option for the current series yesterday, to be squared off by this weekend.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -12 to +18 Bear Power also rises from -48 to -121 indicating that the Bears are strong, but the Bulls cannot be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5860 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5705 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue as of now. The MACD is just about to show a negative divergence, but has not shown it as yet. The MACD histogram still is in the positive. The ADX is showing clear bias towards the down move. The Parabolic SAR has turned into a sell signal with the SL at 5971. However, it must be noted that the Parabolic SAR method has yielded a loss last time around.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5705 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5665 and a target of 5800. We will add to these long positions only above 5825.

b) Around 5810 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5825 and a target of 5740. We will add to these short positions only below 5665.  

Happy Trading !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 20 Mar 2013 - Whipsaw mode on

Nifty is in a peculiar state of whipsaw, with a widening range difficult to trade.

We have been on a mini vacation. During this period, the Nifty has lost most of its gains made during the rise from 5664 to 5971 and has made a higher low yesterday at 5724 with 5971 itself being a lower top. On the weekly time frame, these two levels are going to play a key role going forward. The Nifty has in face, become difficult to trade as the trading range is widening and the momentum is diminishing. This is also evident by the fact that on the daily timeframe, the Nifty has given two bearish and one bullish engulf in the past two weeks. We have a small long position which is staring at a loss and we added one lot of call option for the current series yesterday, to be squared off by this weekend.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -12 to +18 Bear Power also rises from -48 to -121 indicating that the Bears are strong, but the Bulls cannot be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5860 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5705 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

Nifty - 19 Mar 2013 - RBI Policy on the radar

Nifty looks mildly bullish on the eve of the RBI Policy. Wait for EOD for a clear trend.

We are on a two day trading holiday owing to personal commitments. We have a small long position on the Nifty that we plan to hold through till tomorrow, when the market's reaction to the RBI monetary policy will get clear.

Happy Trading !!!

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 19 Mar 2013 - RBI Policy on the radar

Nifty looks mildly bullish on the eve of the RBI Policy. Wait for EOD for a clear trend.

We are on a two day trading holiday owing to personal commitments. We have a small long position on the Nifty that we plan to hold through till tomorrow, when the market's reaction to the RBI monetary policy will get clear.

Happy Trading !!!

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE