Nifty - 29 Nov 2013 - Indecisive at end of month

Nifty stays neutral post expiry. Volatile December on the cards it seems.

Unlike as discussed in our yesterday's post "Expiry jitters", the Nifty traded in a very narrow range of 55 points between 6113 on the higher side and 6068 on the lower side during the entire expiry session. The usual expiry fireworks were missing, underlining the undertone of the Nifty going into the December series. We took two trades, both of which did not materialize, and we made a meager profit of 3 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -17 to +22 Bear Power reduces from -61 to -23 indicating that the Bulls and the Bears both are in their respective zones and are equidistant from the zero line. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6120 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6060 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are looking upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed right in between its key EMAs, however, it has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 28 Nov 2013 - Expiry Jitters with NR7

Nifty makes a NR7 on the eve of expiry. Expect a huge move amidst weak technicals.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty showed "Neutral Bearishness" in trade throughout the day. The Nifty opened with a 4 point gap up at 6063 and traded with low volumes in a narrow range between the high of 6074 and a low of 6030 before closing at 6057 with a loss of 2 points. And today being the day of series expiry, a huge bout of volatility could be expected. We did not take any trade yesterday as none of our trading plans got triggered.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +16 to -17 Bear Power rises from -49 to -61 indicating that the Bears are gaining ground slowly but surely. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6085 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6025 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are hovering just above the oversold zone and are pointing horizontal.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also just below its 50DMA. However, it has closed above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

Nifty - 27 Nov 2013 - Neutral Bearishness

Nifty does a "Inside Across" candle. Stays neutral but bearish. Sell on rise continues.

We observed a trading holiday yesterday. The Nifty exhibited a "Inside Across" candle on the daily charts, meaning that the Nifty stayed within the trading range of the previous day, but as against closing near the highs on the previous day, the Nifty closed near the lows yesterday. The overall technicals stay neutral as of now, however, the orientation has turned slightly bearish and it is still anybody's game on the Nifty.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +19 to +16 Bear Power also reduces from -67 to -49 indicative of the typical inside day and also the neutrality of Bull Bear positioning on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6095 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6040 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just above the oversold zone and are pointing across.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 25 Nov 2013 - Expiry week starts with sell on rises

With expiry just 4 days away, the Nifty remains a sell on rises. Volatility may rise.

As discussed on Friday, we had expected a "Red weekend on the cards". The Nifty closed flat but the weekly bar was a red bar plummeting downwards. The Nifty opened at 6028 with a positive gap up of 28 points, and then made its way up to 6041 and slid back to 6004. It clawed its way back to 6050 which was to be its intraday high, and then again the Nifty slid back downwards, this time breaching the intraday lows. The Nifty made a low 5973 before closing at 5995 with a loss of 4 points. We took a short trade at 6038 and squared off at 5978 booking a profit of 60 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -22 to -52 Bear Power also mildly reduces from -134 to -129 indicating that the Bears are still holding the sway on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6080 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5950 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just about touching the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also its 50DMA. The Nifty however, has closed above its 100DMA and 200DMA.