All eyes on the RBI monetary policy now As discussed yesterday, the whipsaw of the Nifty continued between 4967 and 5076. In the end the Bulls could break out of the range and have managed to close above the near term resistance of 5060. Today also the Nifty seems to open with a up gap of about 50 points.1) The Elder Ray readings as of now - Bull Power increased from +12 to +68. Bear Power reduced from -96 to -55. Gives out a fresh buy signal and to look out for short covering opportunities.2) The stochastics are threatening to go into the overbought area. 3) The moving averages continue to point downwards, emphasizing that we are in a overall downtrend, and that this could turn out to be just a relief rally and not a trend reversal.4) In the above chart, MACD points a upward movement and the ADX shows bull run strengthening.5) While the bull run may last for another couple of sessions, we must not forget that we are in a overall downtrend, and buying should be with caution and profits in Long positions should be taken away as quickly as possible.6) Today, the markets might open near 5120 and we will be bullish till the open breaks with a target of 5170. Below the open, we will be bearish till 5060 with a SL of the opening mark. Above 5170, the next targets will be 5220 and 5320.7) Watch out keenly for a close below 5060. If that happens, we are in for a retest of 4900, which seems to be a bottom now in place.Happy Trading, For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
All eyes on the RBI monetary policy now
As discussed yesterday, the whipsaw of the Nifty continued between 4967 and 5076. In the end the Bulls could break out of the range and have managed to close above the near term resistance of 5060. Today also the Nifty seems to open with a up gap of about 50 points.
1) The Elder Ray readings as of now - Bull Power increased from +12 to +68. Bear Power reduced from -96 to -55. Gives out a fresh buy signal and to look out for short covering opportunities.
2) The stochastics are threatening to go into the overbought area.
3) The moving averages continue to point downwards, emphasizing that we are in a overall downtrend, and that this could turn out to be just a relief rally and not a trend reversal.
4) In the above chart, MACD points a upward movement and the ADX shows bull run strengthening.
5) While the bull run may last for another couple of sessions, we must not forget that we are in a overall downtrend, and buying should be with caution and profits in Long positions should be taken away as quickly as possible.
6) Today, the markets might open near 5120 and we will be bullish till the open breaks with a target of 5170. Below the open, we will be bearish till 5060 with a SL of the opening mark. Above 5170, the next targets will be 5220 and 5320.
7) Watch out keenly for a close below 5060. If that happens, we are in for a retest of 4900, which seems to be a bottom now in place.
Happy Trading,
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
The range bound Nifty whipsaw continuesAs discussed in yesterday's post, the Nifty has whipsawed in the range of 4900 and 5050. With positive global cues, today's opening is likely to be positive.1) The fresh Elder Ray readings : Bull Power has actually reduced from +15 to +12 as also the Bear Power has reduced from -103 to -96 suggesting that both Bulls and Bears have shown exhaustion at their respective range boundaries. Bulls near 5050 and Bears near 4900 have not been able to carry on with follow-up.2) The moving averages continue to fall, suggesting we are still in a longer term falling trend.3) The NH-NL is still in the negative.4) In the above chart, the MACD histogram is showing a upward move, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing suggesting range-bound action, so also is the ADX.5) Considering the above, 5060 will remain a challenge for the Bulls for today, but if they are able to sustain over that level, then we can see 5120 5150 levels where again heavy selling can be expected. Below 4980 however, we may see Bears in action again trying for 4940 4900.6) For today, our trading plan is as under.a) Open fresh shorts at around 5060 with a SL of 5080 and a target of 4980. Below 4980 we will add to our short positions with a target of 4940 4910. Above 5080 we will be long till 5150.b) Open fresh longs at 5010 with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5060. Above 5080 we will add we will add to our long positions. Below 4980 we will be short till 4910.Happy Trading. For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
The range bound Nifty whipsaw continues
As discussed in yesterday's post, the Nifty has whipsawed in the range of 4900 and 5050. With positive global cues, today's opening is likely to be positive.
1) The fresh Elder Ray readings : Bull Power has actually reduced from +15 to +12 as also the Bear Power has reduced from -103 to -96 suggesting that both Bulls and Bears have shown exhaustion at their respective range boundaries. Bulls near 5050 and Bears near 4900 have not been able to carry on with follow-up.
2) The moving averages continue to fall, suggesting we are still in a longer term falling trend.
3) The NH-NL is still in the negative.
4) In the above chart, the MACD histogram is showing a upward move, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing suggesting range-bound action, so also is the ADX.
5) Considering the above, 5060 will remain a challenge for the Bulls for today, but if they are able to sustain over that level, then we can see 5120 5150 levels where again heavy selling can be expected. Below 4980 however, we may see Bears in action again trying for 4940 4900.
6) For today, our trading plan is as under.
a) Open fresh shorts at around 5060 with a SL of 5080 and a target of 4980. Below 4980 we will add to our short positions with a target of 4940 4910. Above 5080 we will be long till 5150.
b) Open fresh longs at 5010 with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5060. Above 5080 we will add we will add to our long positions. Below 4980 we will be short till 4910.
Happy Trading.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Trend finding continues As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened on a positive note above 4980 and found resistance at 5030 before crashing to 4910 and closing near 4940. We could not have been more accurate in our predictions. Clearly, 4900 and 5050 are the defined challenges for Bears and Bulls respectively as of now. The trend however, is favoring the Bears.1) The current Elder Ray readings : The Bull Power has resurfaced from -41 to +15. Bear power also has reduced slightly from -115 to -103. This suggests that although the Bulls have tried, the Bears are not yet leaving their stranglehold on the Nifty.2) The stochastics continue to point downwards but are some distance away from the oversold area, suggesting there is room for downward trend to continue.3) All the moving averages, simple as well as exponential, are moving downwards. The NH- NL still stands in the negative.4) In the above chart, the MACD histogram points to a downward direction, and the ADX is suggesting indecision, with all three values at the same point.5) Considering all the above, our observation for the day is that the Nifty might open Flat and the Bulls will try for 4980 5020 once again and the Bears will try for 4900. It might turn out to be a day of calm before the storm that seems to be brewing on the RBI policy announcement day. It would be a day of small profits and ideally, one should stay out of the Nifty for the day. If you have positions hold on to them for the day, and let the trend decide the future.6) We will open new shorts at 5000 with a SL of 5050 and a target of 4900/4820. Add to short positions below 4890. Above 5050 we will be long till 51507) We will open new longs around 4910 with a SL of 4880 and a target of 4980/5030. Add to long positions above 4990. Below 4880 we will be short till 4820Happy Trading For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Trend finding continues
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened on a positive note above 4980 and found resistance at 5030 before crashing to 4910 and closing near 4940. We could not have been more accurate in our predictions. Clearly, 4900 and 5050 are the defined challenges for Bears and Bulls respectively as of now. The trend however, is favoring the Bears.
1) The current Elder Ray readings : The Bull Power has resurfaced from -41 to +15. Bear power also has reduced slightly from -115 to -103. This suggests that although the Bulls have tried, the Bears are not yet leaving their stranglehold on the Nifty.
2) The stochastics continue to point downwards but are some distance away from the oversold area, suggesting there is room for downward trend to continue.
3) All the moving averages, simple as well as exponential, are moving downwards. The NH- NL still stands in the negative.
4) In the above chart, the MACD histogram points to a downward direction, and the ADX is suggesting indecision, with all three values at the same point.
5) Considering all the above, our observation for the day is that the Nifty might open Flat and the Bulls will try for 4980 5020 once again and the Bears will try for 4900. It might turn out to be a day of calm before the storm that seems to be brewing on the RBI policy announcement day. It would be a day of small profits and ideally, one should stay out of the Nifty for the day. If you have positions hold on to them for the day, and let the trend decide the future.
6) We will open new shorts at 5000 with a SL of 5050 and a target of 4900/4820. Add to short positions below 4890. Above 5050 we will be long till 5150
7) We will open new longs around 4910 with a SL of 4880 and a target of 4980/5030. Add to long positions above 4990. Below 4880 we will be short till 4820
Happy Trading
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty to consolidate between 4910 and 4980 As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened with a hefty down gap of over 70 points and the bears were able to keep the Nifty below the opening of 4980 through out the trading session. The Nifty during the day, was subdued and showed a low of 4911 before staging a recovery and closing at 4947. Let us look at the chart readings as of day end yesterday.1) The Elder Ray readings - Bull Power has reduced from +123 to -41 and the Bear Power has increased from +6 to -115 ( Negative Bear Power means bears getting stronger ). This suggests that bears now have a strangle hold over the Nifty and Bulls have just ended their romance with the Nifty. Remember, we said "Bearishness creeping in" a week ago?2) The Stochastics have just come out of the oversold zone, suggesting a downward movement for the Nifty in forthcoming sessions.3) All the rising EMAs have started to decline and the DMAs continue to fall. The ATR is stagnant at 112 suggesting a consolidation ahead.4) In the above chart, MACD histogram is suggesting a topping out for the Nifty, and ADX is giving a Fresh Sell Signal.5) Our view for the day is that given the late recovery in Europe & US markets a positive opening is on the cards for the Nifty, and the Bulls will try to cover the yesterday's gap between 5047 and 4986. Once that gap is covered, Bears might take over again and push down the nifty to 4950 yet again. So above & near 4980 we will look out for buying opportunities, during the day with a SL of 4950 and a target of 5020. Near 5020, we will be bearish with a SL of 5045 and a target of 4980. Looks like a great day of day trading, both ways. However, during the course of the day, if the bulls fail to get the Nifty over 4990, then the bears might test 4910 again and a below 4910 close can take the Nifty to 4820 in the coming sessions.Happy trading For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty to consolidate between 4910 and 4980
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened with a hefty down gap of over 70 points and the bears were able to keep the Nifty below the opening of 4980 through out the trading session. The Nifty during the day, was subdued and showed a low of 4911 before staging a recovery and closing at 4947. Let us look at the chart readings as of day end yesterday.
1) The Elder Ray readings - Bull Power has reduced from +123 to -41 and the Bear Power has increased from +6 to -115 ( Negative Bear Power means bears getting stronger ). This suggests that bears now have a strangle hold over the Nifty and Bulls have just ended their romance with the Nifty. Remember, we said "Bearishness creeping in" a week ago?
2) The Stochastics have just come out of the oversold zone, suggesting a downward movement for the Nifty in forthcoming sessions.
3) All the rising EMAs have started to decline and the DMAs continue to fall. The ATR is stagnant at 112 suggesting a consolidation ahead.
4) In the above chart, MACD histogram is suggesting a topping out for the Nifty, and ADX is giving a Fresh Sell Signal.
5) Our view for the day is that given the late recovery in Europe & US markets a positive opening is on the cards for the Nifty, and the Bulls will try to cover the yesterday's gap between 5047 and 4986. Once that gap is covered, Bears might take over again and push down the nifty to 4950 yet again. So above & near 4980 we will look out for buying opportunities, during the day with a SL of 4950 and a target of 5020. Near 5020, we will be bearish with a SL of 5045 and a target of 4980. Looks like a great day of day trading, both ways. However, during the course of the day, if the bulls fail to get the Nifty over 4990, then the bears might test 4910 again and a below 4910 close can take the Nifty to 4820 in the coming sessions.
Happy trading
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Can the Bears keep the Nifty down ? The Nifty is most likely to open with a Gap Down, given the global market cues on Friday. That makes for a classic bearish case with a stop at the previous day's end of 5050 levels, and a target of 4950 where the next support lies for the Nifty. Having said that, let us examine the previous day's end values a bit more closely.1) As per the Elder Ray readings, the Bull Power has decreased from +132 to +124 whereas the Bear Power has increased from +61 to +7 ( The lower the value the more the Bear Power), this indicates that the recent bullish honeymoon is getting over and the Bears are looking to gaining control. As per the author & founder of the Elder Ray, the best time to look out for opening shorts is when Bull Power is positive but falling.2) The ATR is decreasing gradually but consistently, indicating of consolidation in forthcoming sessions. As for now, 5170 seems to be a established short term top. So the consolidation zone can be defined between 4950 and 5150, a 200 point range that is approximately twice the current ATR.3) In the above chart, ADX has given a signal to cover your longs, and wait for another signal. The MACD is still pointing a upward bias, strengthening our opinion of some consolidation in the offing over the next few sessions.4) The Nifty futures are trading at a hefty discount of over 15 Rs. suggesting a bearish breakdown after consolidation.5) Our view for Monday 12th Sept 2001 is to look out for going short below Friday's close of 5050 with a target of 4970 / 4950 and a SL of 5070. However, our view would change only and only if the Bulls are able to take the Nifty past 5080 when we will cover our shorts and go long for a target of 5120 / 5140 with a SL of 5045. The art will lie in having patience to wait till a proper risk to reward ratio trade comes on the scene, and many traders who will not be patient enough will get dragged in a wrong or a less rewarding risky trade. We hope we are not one of them tomorrow.Happy Trading For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Can the Bears keep the Nifty down ?
The Nifty is most likely to open with a Gap Down, given the global market cues on Friday. That makes for a classic bearish case with a stop at the previous day's end of 5050 levels, and a target of 4950 where the next support lies for the Nifty. Having said that, let us examine the previous day's end values a bit more closely.
1) As per the Elder Ray readings, the Bull Power has decreased from +132 to +124 whereas the Bear Power has increased from +61 to +7 ( The lower the value the more the Bear Power), this indicates that the recent bullish honeymoon is getting over and the Bears are looking to gaining control. As per the author & founder of the Elder Ray, the best time to look out for opening shorts is when Bull Power is positive but falling.
2) The ATR is decreasing gradually but consistently, indicating of consolidation in forthcoming sessions. As for now, 5170 seems to be a established short term top. So the consolidation zone can be defined between 4950 and 5150, a 200 point range that is approximately twice the current ATR.
3) In the above chart, ADX has given a signal to cover your longs, and wait for another signal. The MACD is still pointing a upward bias, strengthening our opinion of some consolidation in the offing over the next few sessions.
4) The Nifty futures are trading at a hefty discount of over 15 Rs. suggesting a bearish breakdown after consolidation.
5) Our view for Monday 12th Sept 2001 is to look out for going short below Friday's close of 5050 with a target of 4970 / 4950 and a SL of 5070. However, our view would change only and only if the Bulls are able to take the Nifty past 5080 when we will cover our shorts and go long for a target of 5120 / 5140 with a SL of 5045. The art will lie in having patience to wait till a proper risk to reward ratio trade comes on the scene, and many traders who will not be patient enough will get dragged in a wrong or a less rewarding risky trade. We hope we are not one of them tomorrow.
Happy Trading
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
|
Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
