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Thursday 10 July 2014

Nifty - 10 Jul 2014 - Budget day Blues

Nifty poised critically ahead of the Budget day. Volatile session on the cards now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty which had a "Drop from the top" on the previous day, continued to plunge downwards, with a couple of attempts for a recovery that got thwarted easily. The Nifty opened at 7638 with a positive gap up of 15 points, and dropped within the first hour of trade to 7552 and recovered to a high of 7650 within the next hour. The Nifty then traded within a small range of 40 points before closing at 7585 with a loss of 38 points over its previous close. We booked a loss of 25 points on a long trade taken as per our trading plan that got failed.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +169 to +18 Bear Power rises from -44 to -80 indicating that the Bears are now stronger, but the Bulls cannot be ignored as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7655 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7545 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the middle of the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

 



4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested soon. The MACD is now attempting a Sell signal with the histogram too falling below the zero line. The ADX is suggesting a equilibrium with a mild bias towards the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL held at 7809.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 7640 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 7660 and a target of 7540. We will add to these short positions only below 7510.

b) Around 7530 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 7510 and a target of 7630. We will add to these long positions only above 7660.

Happy Trading !!! 

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