AD Code

Friday 1 March 2013

Nifty - 01 Mar 2013 - Bearishness overstretched

Bears rule on expiry day, aided by a non-event Budget. Caution in shorts needed.

As discussed yesterday, we say "Budget day blues" on the trading screen. The Nifty opened at 5834 with a 40 point positive gap, right into our suggested resistance band. Then made a swift high of 5850 and remained subdued from thereon till the end of the budget speech, when the Bears took over, and swept past 5750, our suggested support zone, even to breach the psychological level of 5700, to make a low of 5672 before closing at 5693 with a whopping loss of 104 points. 

At this point, we need to remind ourselves, our analysis yesterday morning.

Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -55 to +3 Bear Power also rises from -123 to -175 indicating that the Bears have overstretched the Nifty so low that the averages have also gone so down, that the Bulls have managed to regain lost grounds on the virtue of the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5820 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty remains below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in extremely oversold zone and are yet pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have doubled almost, with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that more downward moves may be on their way. The MACD continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a rise in momentum, favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5913.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5660, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5630 and a target of 5725. We will add to these long positions only above 5745.

b) Around 5730, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5675. We will add to these short positions only below 5630.

Happy Trading !!! 
    

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 01 Mar 2013 - Bearishness overstretched

Bears rule on expiry day, aided by a non-event Budget. Caution in shorts needed.

As discussed yesterday, we say "Budget day blues" on the trading screen. The Nifty opened at 5834 with a 40 point positive gap, right into our suggested resistance band. Then made a swift high of 5850 and remained subdued from thereon till the end of the budget speech, when the Bears took over, and swept past 5750, our suggested support zone, even to breach the psychological level of 5700, to make a low of 5672 before closing at 5693 with a whopping loss of 104 points. 

At this point, we need to remind ourselves, our analysis yesterday morning.

Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -55 to +3 Bear Power also rises from -123 to -175 indicating that the Bears have overstretched the Nifty so low that the averages have also gone so down, that the Bulls have managed to regain lost grounds on the virtue of the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5820 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty remains below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in extremely oversold zone and are yet pointing downwards.

Thursday 28 February 2013

Nifty - 28 Feb 2013 - Budget day blues

Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived.

As discussed yesterday, Bearish sentiment grew on the Nifty, with the Nifty, aided by global cues, opened with a 24 point positive gap, got sold into and tested previous day's low at 5749, before recovering fully and making a lower high of 5818 and closing at 5797. Both the Bears & the Bulls failed to breach the previous day's lows and highs respectively. However, the overall bearish outlook on the Nifty remains intact. We have a outstanding short position carried forward from yesterday's trade, with a maximum loss of 40 points, as we have purchased 5800 PE at 40.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -47 to -55 Bear Power also reduces from -137 to -123, indicating the overall bearish sentiments prevailing on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5865 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5740 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are looking up.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the Nifty gaining in price, indicating that the up move may continue. The MACD however, continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a pause in the bearish momentum, but is still favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5934.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5835 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5845 and a target of 5775. We will add to these short positions only below 5750.

b) Around 5760 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5750 and a target of 5795. We will add to these long positions only above 5850.

c) Today, being a big event day as well as series expiry day, the Nifty can become highly volatile, and as such, if the indications are not favorable, we may decide to skip the trade completely to avoid getting whipsawed.

Happy Trading !!!      

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 28 Feb 2013 - Budget day blues

Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived.

As discussed yesterday, Bearish sentiment grew on the Nifty, with the Nifty, aided by global cues, opened with a 24 point positive gap, got sold into and tested previous day's low at 5749, before recovering fully and making a lower high of 5818 and closing at 5797. Both the Bears & the Bulls failed to breach the previous day's lows and highs respectively. However, the overall bearish outlook on the Nifty remains intact. We have a outstanding short position carried forward from yesterday's trade, with a maximum loss of 40 points, as we have purchased 5800 PE at 40.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -47 to -55 Bear Power also reduces from -137 to -123, indicating the overall bearish sentiments prevailing on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5865 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5740 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are looking up.

Wednesday 27 February 2013

Nifty - 27 Feb 2013 - Bearish sentiment grows

Nifty continues to drop down as Bears go on rampage. Key supports approaching.

As discussed yesterday, volatile times continued on the Nifty. The Nifty opened with a gap down of 17 points and immediately started selling off, albeit slowly in the morning hour, and then galloping downwards, breaching supports after supports, to make a low of 5749 before closing at 5761 with a whopping loss of 93 points. Our trading plan(b) triggered right in the morning, but hit the SL and we lost 13 points on that trade. Post that, we were out of the market attending prior commitments.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -28 to -47 Bear Power rises from -81 to -137 indicating that the Bears have now got too strong a momentum, and may weaken a bit in days to come. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5870 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5725 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs, its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is still above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are well and deep into the oversold zone.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that selling pressure is about to peak out. The MACD continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a overall rise in the bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal, with the SL now pegged at 5950.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5795 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5815 and a target of 5740. We will add to these short positions only below 5710.

b) Around 5725 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5710 and a target of 5785. We will add to these long positions only above 5815.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 27 Feb 2013 - Bearish sentiment grows

Nifty continues to drop down as Bears go on rampage. Key supports approaching.

As discussed yesterday, volatile times continued on the Nifty. The Nifty opened with a gap down of 17 points and immediately started selling off, albeit slowly in the morning hour, and then galloping downwards, breaching supports after supports, to make a low of 5749 before closing at 5761 with a whopping loss of 93 points. Our trading plan(b) triggered right in the morning, but hit the SL and we lost 13 points on that trade. Post that, we were out of the market attending prior commitments.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -28 to -47 Bear Power rises from -81 to -137 indicating that the Bears have now got too strong a momentum, and may weaken a bit in days to come. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5870 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5725 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs, its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is still above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are well and deep into the oversold zone.

Tuesday 26 February 2013

Nifty - 26 Feb 2013 - Volatililty to continue

Bears breach lows, then Bulls overcome highs, Nifty range & volatility expands.

As discussed yesterday, it does seem to be a volatile week ahead of us now. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 20 points, but right into the resistance zone suggested by us, and immediately got sold off. During the entire trading session, the Nifty breached the previous day's highs and the previous day's lows twice, highlighting the underlying volatility in trade. Finally, the Nifty, after making a high of 5878 and a low of 5825, closed at 5855, with a gain of 4 points. We had 3 trades during the day, two out of which were profitable, while one hit the SL. At the end of the day, we could book a profit of 51 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -41 to -28 Bear Power also rises from -79 to -81 indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are putting in their effort, and thereby increasing the volatility on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5895 on the Nifty to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5810 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA. However, it also continues to close above its 100DMA and its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are back in the oversold zone, confirming the bearish sentiments on the Nifty.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the stagnation in the Nifty, indicating caution amongst the larger trading community. The MACD continues to be in the negative and is growing lower. The ADX is suggesting a loss of overall momentum, but is still favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now of 5963.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5885, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5905 and a target of 5835. We will add to these short positions only below 5810.

b) Around 5825, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5810 and a target of 5865. We will add to these long positions only above 5905.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 26 Feb 2013 - Volatililty to continue

Bears breach lows, then Bulls overcome highs, Nifty range & volatility expands.

As discussed yesterday, it does seem to be a volatile week ahead of us now. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 20 points, but right into the resistance zone suggested by us, and immediately got sold off. During the entire trading session, the Nifty breached the previous day's highs and the previous day's lows twice, highlighting the underlying volatility in trade. Finally, the Nifty, after making a high of 5878 and a low of 5825, closed at 5855, with a gain of 4 points. We had 3 trades during the day, two out of which were profitable, while one hit the SL. At the end of the day, we could book a profit of 51 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -41 to -28 Bear Power also rises from -79 to -81 indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are putting in their effort, and thereby increasing the volatility on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5895 on the Nifty to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5810 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA. However, it also continues to close above its 100DMA and its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are back in the oversold zone, confirming the bearish sentiments on the Nifty.

Monday 25 February 2013

Nifty - 25 Feb 2013 - Volatile week ahead

Bulls look weak in a eventful week ahead. Sell on rise will be the mantra for trade.

As discussed on Friday, Bears reclaimed their losses, as the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 14 points. The Nifty thereafter, traded within a narrow range of 40 points or so, making a high of 5874 and a low of 5836, before ending the day at 5850 with a minor loss of 2 points. The forthcoming week, being an eventful one, we expect a rise in the volatility on the Nifty. On Friday, during the last volatile hour, we could book a profit of 32 points on two lots traded in the short direction.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -4 to -41 Bear Power also reduces mildly from -81 to -79 indicating that the Bears have rested for now as the Bulls have lost further strength. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5905 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5825 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA(5961). However, it has closed above its 100DMA(5842) and its 200DMA.

3) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone and are looking up, whereas the slow stochastics are just above the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the Nifty being stagnant, indicating that the market is in wait and watch mode. The MACD continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a favor towards the down move. The Parabolic SAR maintains its sell signal with a SL at 5968.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5875 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5895 and a target of 5830. We will add to these short positions only below 5805.

b) Around 5815 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5805 and a target of 5855. We will add to these long positions only above 5895.

Happy Trading !!!  

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 25 Feb 2013 - Volatile week ahead

Bulls look weak in a eventful week ahead. Sell on rise will be the mantra for trade.

As discussed on Friday, Bears reclaimed their losses, as the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 14 points. The Nifty thereafter, traded within a narrow range of 40 points or so, making a high of 5874 and a low of 5836, before ending the day at 5850 with a minor loss of 2 points. The forthcoming week, being an eventful one, we expect a rise in the volatility on the Nifty. On Friday, during the last volatile hour, we could book a profit of 32 points on two lots traded in the short direction.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -4 to -41 Bear Power also reduces mildly from -81 to -79 indicating that the Bears have rested for now as the Bulls have lost further strength. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5905 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5825 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA(5961). However, it has closed above its 100DMA(5842) and its 200DMA.

3) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone and are looking up, whereas the slow stochastics are just above the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.