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Friday 19 October 2012

Nifty - 19 Oct 2012 - Breakout needs validation

Nifty has just about broken out of its boring consolidation. Confirmation needed.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was going through a boring consolidation, which got terminated as the Bulls decided to take some initiative and took the Nifty first past 5685 and then past 5710 and even closed above those levels at 5718 with a gain of 58 points over the previous close. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +14 to +45 Bear Power reduces from -36 to -27 indicating that though the Bulls have gained some advantage the Bears are just round the corner as yet, and follow up is need from the Bulls to keep this up move intact. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5735 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed again above all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone still.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that this up move could be sustainable. The MACD is now showing the initial upwards divergence, with the histogram arresting its fall and rising. The ADX is also suggesting a strengthening of the up move. The Parabolic SAR has turned into a Buy signal now.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5690 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5680 and a target of 5740. We will add to these long positions only above 5760.

b) Around 5750 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5760 and a target of 5710. We will add to these short positions only below 5680.

Happy Trading  !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 19 Oct 2012 - Breakout needs validation

Nifty has just about broken out of its boring consolidation. Confirmation needed.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was going through a boring consolidation, which got terminated as the Bulls decided to take some initiative and took the Nifty first past 5685 and then past 5710 and even closed above those levels at 5718 with a gain of 58 points over the previous close. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +14 to +45 Bear Power reduces from -36 to -27 indicating that though the Bulls have gained some advantage the Bears are just round the corner as yet, and follow up is need from the Bulls to keep this up move intact. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5735 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed again above all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone still.

Thursday 18 October 2012

Nifty - 18 Oct 2012 - Boring consolidation

Nifty grinds slowly in a narrow trading range, may continue to do so more.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the Nifty return back to the trading mode, as even after a cheerful global cues, the Nifty managed to open with just a 33 point gap up, and never managed to build on it. Although the Nifty closed with a minor gain of 12 points over the previous day's close, it still closed 21 points below its yesterday's opening, which suggests that neither the Bulls nor the Bears have come out as winners as of now. Our trading plan (a) got triggered right at the start and hit its target too, making us a profit of 45 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +42 to +14 Bear Power stagnates at -36 indicative of the power struggle that is on and also indicative of the consolidation that is going on. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5690 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5630 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA(5676) and 13EMA(5670). Both these EMAs are below their previous day's values. However, the Nifty has closed above its 21EMA(5639) which is rising. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs which are also rising.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, emphasizing the hold of the Bulls and the failure of the Bears as yet.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with a small rise in the Nifty, indicating that the Nifty is taking support at lower levels and is consolidating. The MACD continues to fall, with the histogram also being in the negative and falling. The ADX continues to show a lack of momentum in any direction but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with its SL stuck at 5714 and not dropping.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under. (Basically it is the same as yesterday's )

a) Below 5695 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5715 and a target of 5640. We will add to these short positions only below 5605.

b) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5605 and a target of 5675. We will add to these long positions only above 5715.
Happy Trading !!!    
 
 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 18 Oct 2012 - Boring consolidation

Nifty grinds slowly in a narrow trading range, may continue to do so more.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the Nifty return back to the trading mode, as even after a cheerful global cues, the Nifty managed to open with just a 33 point gap up, and never managed to build on it. Although the Nifty closed with a minor gain of 12 points over the previous day's close, it still closed 21 points below its yesterday's opening, which suggests that neither the Bulls nor the Bears have come out as winners as of now. Our trading plan (a) got triggered right at the start and hit its target too, making us a profit of 45 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +42 to +14 Bear Power stagnates at -36 indicative of the power struggle that is on and also indicative of the consolidation that is going on. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5690 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5630 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA(5676) and 13EMA(5670). Both these EMAs are below their previous day's values. However, the Nifty has closed above its 21EMA(5639) which is rising. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs which are also rising.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, emphasizing the hold of the Bulls and the failure of the Bears as yet.

Wednesday 17 October 2012

Nifty - 17 Oct 2012 - Still in trading mode

In-spite of the big move yesterday, Nifty still in trading mode. Sell on rise stays.

As discussed yesterday, we were expecting the Nifty to resolve either Breakout or Breakdown. We also expected a big move after a few days of consolidation. The big move came, however, the Nifty did not breach 5720 on the upside and it just scraped at 5640 on the downside before closing at 5648. This makes us believe that we are still in a trading mode without any strong trend, and it is still sell on rise and buy on dips as yet.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +18 to +42 Bear Power also rises from -25 to -36, indicative of the equal strength on both sides and also confirming the lack of direction. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5715 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5626 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5681) and 13EMA (5672) but above its 21EMA (5637) and has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone, indicating that yesterday's Bear attempt has failed to bring the stochastics below  the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that the down move may sustain. The MACD continues to fall, indicating that the down move is gaining strength. The ADX however, is suggesting that the up move is slightly gaining momentum, and the down move is losing momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL at 5714, which was the Day's High Point yesterday.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5695 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5715 and a target of 5640. We will add to these short positions only below 5605.

b) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5605 and a target of 5675. We will add to these long positions only above 5715.

Happy Trading !!!    

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 17 Oct 2012 - Still in trading mode

In-spite of the big move yesterday, Nifty still in trading mode. Sell on rise stays.

As discussed yesterday, we were expecting the Nifty to resolve either Breakout or Breakdown. We also expected a big move after a few days of consolidation. The big move came, however, the Nifty did not breach 5720 on the upside and it just scraped at 5640 on the downside before closing at 5648. This makes us believe that we are still in a trading mode without any strong trend, and it is still sell on rise and buy on dips as yet.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +18 to +42 Bear Power also rises from -25 to -36, indicative of the equal strength on both sides and also confirming the lack of direction. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5715 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5626 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5681) and 13EMA (5672) but above its 21EMA (5637) and has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone, indicating that yesterday's Bear attempt has failed to bring the stochastics below  the overbought zone.

Tuesday 16 October 2012

Nifty - 16 Oct 2012 - Breakout or Breakdown ?

Nifty has been consolidating for the past 6 days. Big move is now expected.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the balancing act on the Nifty between the Bulls and the Bears. The Nifty opened flat and then gyrated within a 40 point range for the entire trading session before closing at 5687 with a minor gain of 11 points. Now after a nice consolidation, the big move may be just round the corner. We need to watch out for 5640 on the downside and 5740 on the upside.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +18 Bear Power rises from -15 to -25 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now having equal control on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5705 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5645 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5690) but has closed above its 13 and 21 EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the stagnation in Nifty indicating lack of participation by traders. The MACD continues to fall with the histogram being in the negative. The ADX continues to suggest a diminishing momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5726.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5665 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5640 and a target of 5715. We will add to these long positions only above 5730.

b) Around 5720 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5730 and a target of 5670. We will add to these short positions only below 5640.

Happy Trading !!!  

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 16 Oct 2012 - Breakout or Breakdown ?

Nifty has been consolidating for the past 6 days. Big move is now expected.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the balancing act on the Nifty between the Bulls and the Bears. The Nifty opened flat and then gyrated within a 40 point range for the entire trading session before closing at 5687 with a minor gain of 11 points. Now after a nice consolidation, the big move may be just round the corner. We need to watch out for 5640 on the downside and 5740 on the upside.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +18 Bear Power rises from -15 to -25 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now having equal control on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5705 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5645 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5690) but has closed above its 13 and 21 EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

Monday 15 October 2012

Nifty - 15 Oct 2012 - Balancing act on

With the Nifty still in a tricky terrain the Bulls & Bears look equally strong.

As discussed on Friday, we saw the Nifty was in a tricky terrain as it opened with a mild gap down, and threatened to breakdown below 5650, but regained grounds and went up to break the previous day's high but did not break out and closed with a loss of 32 points. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bulls Power rises from +47 to +51 Bear Power reduces from -37 to -15, indicating that the Bulls are still having a minor advantage, but more or less a equilibrium exists. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5730 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5655 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5691) but has closed above its 13EMA (5674) and 21EMA (5630) and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have remained stagnant with the Nifty also remaining static indicating the equilibrium that exists in the market. The MACD continues to weaken with the histogram remaining in the negative and growing gradually. The ADX is also suggesting a weakening of the up move but the direction favored is still upwards. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now at 5743.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5660 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5640 and a target of 5720. We will add to these long positions only above 5750.

b) Around 5730 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5750 and a target of 5685. We will add to these short positions only below 5640.

Happy Trading !!!  

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 15 Oct 2012 - Balancing act on

With the Nifty still in a tricky terrain the Bulls & Bears look equally strong.

As discussed on Friday, we saw the Nifty was in a tricky terrain as it opened with a mild gap down, and threatened to breakdown below 5650, but regained grounds and went up to break the previous day's high but did not break out and closed with a loss of 32 points. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bulls Power rises from +47 to +51 Bear Power reduces from -37 to -15, indicating that the Bulls are still having a minor advantage, but more or less a equilibrium exists. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5730 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5655 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5691) but has closed above its 13EMA (5674) and 21EMA (5630) and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.