Nifty - 15 Jun 2012 - Critically poised Nifty

As the Nifty returns back to the trading channel, today could be the trend setting day.


As discussed yesterday, "Nifty paused its uptrend" and the Bulls were not able to overcome the previous day's high and thereafter the Bears could breach the previous day's low and close the Nifty in the red. Although this looks as a pause at the moment, it could be the restart of the downtrend as well. Follow up action would confirm this by end of day today.

In the volatility of yesterday, our "Short plan" did not trigger, and our "Long plan" hit the SL after triggering.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +133 to +112 Bear Power rises from +84 to +30, indicating that the Bears are now in striking distance of safety, but without follow up it could be a case of "So near, yet so far" for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5150 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5025 to return back to safe zone.

2) The Nifty is again above all its key EMAs but below all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics remain in the overbought zone, but are now pointing downwards.

 

4) In the above charts, the volumes have depleted in yesterday's downfall on the Nifty, indicating that the fall may be dicey. The MACD has started falling from the positive zone, indicating a impending down fall on the Nifty. The ADX is suggesting a slight strengthening of the down move, but the overall momentum indicator remains low. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with a SL of just below 4900.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5010, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5080 and then 5110. We will add to these long positions only above 5130.

b) Around 5115, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5130 and a target of 5030. We will add to these short positions only below 4990.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 15 Jun 2012 - Critically poised Nifty

As the Nifty returns back to the trading channel, today could be the trend setting day.


As discussed yesterday, "Nifty paused its uptrend" and the Bulls were not able to overcome the previous day's high and thereafter the Bears could breach the previous day's low and close the Nifty in the red. Although this looks as a pause at the moment, it could be the restart of the downtrend as well. Follow up action would confirm this by end of day today.

In the volatility of yesterday, our "Short plan" did not trigger, and our "Long plan" hit the SL after triggering.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +133 to +112 Bear Power rises from +84 to +30, indicating that the Bears are now in striking distance of safety, but without follow up it could be a case of "So near, yet so far" for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5150 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5025 to return back to safe zone.

2) The Nifty is again above all its key EMAs but below all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics remain in the overbought zone, but are now pointing downwards.

Nifty - 14 Jun 2012 - Nifty pauses its uptrend

As the Nifty waits for further direction, 'Buy on dips' continues.


As discussed in our yesterday's post, "Buy on Dips" continued almost all through the session. However, we also saw some indecision at higher levels, which limited the up move on the Nifty. None of our trading plans triggered yesterday, and we were happy to watch the moves from the sidelines. As traders, we have to be patient and decisive simultaneously. Also to be noted is yesterday was a NR7 day, and a we expect a bigger move today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +136 to +133 Bear Power also reduces from +22 to +84, indicating that the Bears have lost more momentum in yesterday's trade. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5160 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach 5030 to regain their lost momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to trade above all its key EMAs and also above its 50DMA and its 200DMA. The 100DMA around 5200 could be the next resistance to any up move.

3) The stochastics are well and deep into the overbought zone, and some profit booking could be expected now.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant, with the Nifty really going nowhere, indicating the indecision amongst the market participants. The MACD continues to rise, indicating the strength of the Bulls currently. The ADX is suggesting a slight weakening of the momentum in the up move. The Parabolic SAR is still giving out a Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5085, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5050 and a target of 5160. We will add to these long positions only above 5190.

b) Around 5180, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5190 and a target of 5120. We will add to these short positions only below 5050.

c) We will maintain a "No Trading Zone" till the Nifty breaks the 5100 5150 zone for the day. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 14 Jun 2012 - Nifty pauses its uptrend

As the Nifty waits for further direction, 'Buy on dips' continues.


As discussed in our yesterday's post, "Buy on Dips" continued almost all through the session. However, we also saw some indecision at higher levels, which limited the up move on the Nifty. None of our trading plans triggered yesterday, and we were happy to watch the moves from the sidelines. As traders, we have to be patient and decisive simultaneously. Also to be noted is yesterday was a NR7 day, and a we expect a bigger move today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +136 to +133 Bear Power also reduces from +22 to +84, indicating that the Bears have lost more momentum in yesterday's trade. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5160 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach 5030 to regain their lost momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to trade above all its key EMAs and also above its 50DMA and its 200DMA. The 100DMA around 5200 could be the next resistance to any up move.

3) The stochastics are well and deep into the overbought zone, and some profit booking could be expected now.

Nifty - 13 June 2012 - Buy on dips continues

Bulls manage to break Nifty out of the declining channel. We look to buy on dips.


As discussed yesterday in our post "Volatility continues", we saw the Nifty open with a down gap and then trade above that level for the entire day, and by close recover all the losses of the previous day. We had also suggested, that the "Bulls still hold the sway" and that "the Bulls still look good and may succeed in arresting this fall, if not staging a smart comeback." Today, given the global cues, the Nifty may open with a positive gap, and once it goes above 5140, we could see the rally continue.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +152 to +136 Bear Power increases from +68 to +22, indicating that the Bulls have actually lost some momentum, but the bears are still in the opponents territory. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5145 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5010 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs and is also above its 50 DMA and 200 DMA. The 100 DMA which is at 5196, could be the point of resistance.

3) The stochastics are well and deeply into the overbought zone now.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have dipped in yesterday's fall, indicating loss of momentum for the rally. The MACD is now rising merrily, indicating support to the up-move. The ADX is suggesting some loss of momentum to the rally. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5080, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5050 and a target of 5150. We will add to these long positions only above 5180.

b) Around 5170, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5100. We will add to these short positions only below 5050. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 13 June 2012 - Buy on dips continues

Bulls manage to break Nifty out of the declining channel. We look to buy on dips.


As discussed yesterday in our post "Volatility continues", we saw the Nifty open with a down gap and then trade above that level for the entire day, and by close recover all the losses of the previous day. We had also suggested, that the "Bulls still hold the sway" and that "the Bulls still look good and may succeed in arresting this fall, if not staging a smart comeback." Today, given the global cues, the Nifty may open with a positive gap, and once it goes above 5140, we could see the rally continue.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +152 to +136 Bear Power increases from +68 to +22, indicating that the Bulls have actually lost some momentum, but the bears are still in the opponents territory. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5145 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5010 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs and is also above its 50 DMA and 200 DMA. The 100 DMA which is at 5196, could be the point of resistance.

3) The stochastics are well and deeply into the overbought zone now.

Nifty - 12 Jun 2012 - Volatility continues

Bears manage to drag the Nifty back into its trading range. Bulls still hold the sway.

In our yesterday's post, we had suggested "Buy on dips", but the Nifty opened up near resistances, leaving no chance for that strategy. Instead, our plan (b) which said "Around 5125, we will add fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5050." got executed to perfection. Today, the Bears might be aided by global cues, and may be able to open the Nifty with a gap down. However, the Bulls still look good and may succeed in arresting this fall, if not staging a smart comeback.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +125 to +152 Bear Power reduces from +35 to +68, indicating that the Bulls are still ahead, in-spite of the drag down on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5140 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now again above its key EMAs and below its key DMAs. The 200 DMA at 5065 could become a critical level to watch out for.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone, but have started pointing downwards.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have declined in yesterday's fall on the Nifty, indicating susceptibility for a major downtrend as yet. The MACD is rising from the negative, but the histogram is at its recent peak, indicating a weakening up-trend. The ADX is also suggesting a cooling down of the momentum, and is favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out a Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 4995, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4980 and a target of 5075. We will add to these long positions only above 5100.

b) Around 5080, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5095 and a target of 5015. We will add to these short positions only below 4980.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 12 Jun 2012 - Volatility continues

Bears manage to drag the Nifty back into its trading range. Bulls still hold the sway.

In our yesterday's post, we had suggested "Buy on dips", but the Nifty opened up near resistances, leaving no chance for that strategy. Instead, our plan (b) which said "Around 5125, we will add fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5050." got executed to perfection. Today, the Bears might be aided by global cues, and may be able to open the Nifty with a gap down. However, the Bulls still look good and may succeed in arresting this fall, if not staging a smart comeback.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +125 to +152 Bear Power reduces from +35 to +68, indicating that the Bulls are still ahead, in-spite of the drag down on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5140 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now again above its key EMAs and below its key DMAs. The 200 DMA at 5065 could become a critical level to watch out for.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone, but have started pointing downwards.

Nifty - 11 Jun 2012 - Buy on dips for now

After a Bullish week, the short term trend is now to wait for dips and buy on dips.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Volatile end to the week", where the Nifty opened with a small gap down of about 4 points, went below to break the previous day's lows and then in the last hour swiftly broke out from there to overcome previous day's highs to close at 5068 with a minor gain of about 20 points. Our trading plan (a) stated "Around 5010, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5080." and that turned out to be executed to perfection on Friday. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +119 to +125 Bear Power also rises from +67 to +35, indicating that the volatility could increase in days to come, with the Bulls having a slight edge over the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5105 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs which are pointing upwards. It is also trading above its above its 200 DMA which is at 5064. However, it is trading below its 50DMA and its 100 DMA.

3) The stochastics are now well and deeply into the overbought zone.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the Friday's rise in the Nifty indicating the susceptibility of the rise. The MACD is showing signs of peaking indicating that the rise could continue for a while but a fall is just round the corner. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the momentum of the bullish trend. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5020, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5000 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5135.

b) Around 5125, we will add fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5050. We will add to these short positions only below 5000.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 11 Jun 2012 - Buy on dips for now

After a Bullish week, the short term trend is now to wait for dips and buy on dips.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Volatile end to the week", where the Nifty opened with a small gap down of about 4 points, went below to break the previous day's lows and then in the last hour swiftly broke out from there to overcome previous day's highs to close at 5068 with a minor gain of about 20 points. Our trading plan (a) stated "Around 5010, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5080." and that turned out to be executed to perfection on Friday. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +119 to +125 Bear Power also rises from +67 to +35, indicating that the volatility could increase in days to come, with the Bulls having a slight edge over the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5105 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4985 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs which are pointing upwards. It is also trading above its above its 200 DMA which is at 5064. However, it is trading below its 50DMA and its 100 DMA.

3) The stochastics are now well and deeply into the overbought zone.

Nifty - Weekly Review - 04th Jun 2012 to 08th Jun 2012

Nifty turns mildly bullish, but future course depends on follow up action by the Bulls.

Our last weekly review, we had indicated "Bearish start to the fresh series unfolds, but supports galore at slightly lower levels.", and the Nifty obliged by taking supports around 4770 and the closing at the weekly top of 5068. 

At the start of the week, the Nifty saw "Bearish mood persist", then "Enter the consolidation mode" and then after this consolidation, there were "No clear breakout signals" and there was a "volatile end to the week".

During the past week, the Nifty has staged a smart rally, and have left the bears gaping with wilderness. However, it will the next week that will define the future course of direction for the Nifty. A detailed technical analysis, would help us draw out a trading plan to decide our course of action in the next week.


 
For the next week,

1) The Elder Ray readings : On a weekly basis, the Bull Power has risen from -50 to +14 the Bear Power has also risen from -239 to -300, indicating the volatility that we have seen in the past week. It is also an indication, that the Bulls have regained their safe zone while the Bears have had their share of momentum too. For the next week, the Bulls need to overcome 5090 to retain their upwards weekly momentum, whereas the Bears have a tough target of breaching 4765 on the downside to retain their downwards weekly momentum. This is a perfect recipe for a trend deciding week amidst rising volatility. We need to follow the rules of trend identification very closely while executing our trades during this week.

2) The Nifty is trading above its 8week EMA and 13week EMA, however is below its 21week EMA which is at 5102. On the weekly SMA front, the Nifty is below its 50 week SMA and its 100 week SMA. However it is above its 200 week SMA which is at 4827.

3) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant while the Nifty has risen from its supports, indicating this could be more of short covering than of fresh buying. Only a follow up action in prices would confirm the move. The weekly MACD is still in the negative but is rising, which is indicative of a pending up move on the Nifty. The ADX is suggesting a weakening of the down move, but is also stopping short of suggesting a strengthening of the up move. The weekly Parabolic SAR continues to hold out a Sell Signal.

4) The technical signals are giving out mixed indications and the Nifty is poised right in the middle of the clusters of supports and resistances, making it vulnerable to a big move in either direction. 

5) Considering the above, our weekly trading plan is as under.

a) Around 5100, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5160 and a target of 4900. We will add to these short positions only below 4845.

b) Around 4900, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4850 and a target of 5100. We will add to these long positions only above 5165 for a target of 5240 and then 5280.

c) Considering the possibility of increase in volatility, we will trail our stop loss to preserve our profits, whenever our trades trigger. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - Weekly Review - 04th Jun 2012 to 08th Jun 2012

Nifty turns mildly bullish, but future course depends on follow up action by the Bulls.

Our last weekly review, we had indicated " Bearish start to the fresh series unfolds, but supports galore at slightly lower levels. ", and the Nifty obliged by taking supports around 4770 and the closing at the weekly top of 5068. 

At the start of the week, the Nifty saw "Bearish mood persist", then "Enter the consolidation mode" and then after this consolidation, there were "No clear breakout signals" and there was a "volatile end to the week".

During the past week, the Nifty has staged a smart rally, and have left the bears gaping with wilderness. However, it will the next week that will define the future course of direction for the Nifty. A detailed technical analysis, would help us draw out a trading plan to decide our course of action in the next week.