Nifty - 06 Aug 2013 - Carry on shorting

Nifty's pause in the current fall only adjusts the averages. Bearishness remains intact.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in Sell on rise mode. The Nifty opened with a minor positive gap of 5 points at 5682 and closed at 5685 with a minor gain of 8 points in between making a low of 5661 and a high of 5721. This 60 points trading range formed yet another NR7 day and big swings can be expected any time soon. We did not participate in trades yesterday as none of our trading plans got triggered.

Summary : The medium term down trend continues after this small halt. The intraday resistance around 5725 zone still remains, with intraday supports lowering to 5620. Positional shorts should be maintained. Newer positional shorts can still be created. 

Also see :  Our Positional nifty future and options calls.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -74 to -94 Bear Power also reduces from -187 to -153 indicating that the pause has caused more damage to the Bulls than to the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5795 to regain all of their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone now emphasizing the down move.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the small rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise may prove to be deceptive. The MACD continues to point downwards, with the histogram remaining in the negative and growing. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the downwards momentum but is also suggesting a fall in the upwards momentum and is favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5921.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5710 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5725 and a target of 5645. We will add to these short positions only below 5615.

b) Around 5630 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5615 and a target of 5675. We will add to these long positions only above 5725.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 06 Aug 2013 - Carry on shorting

Nifty's pause in the current fall only adjusts the averages. Bearishness remains intact.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in Sell on rise mode. The Nifty opened with a minor positive gap of 5 points at 5682 and closed at 5685 with a minor gain of 8 points in between making a low of 5661 and a high of 5721. This 60 points trading range formed yet another NR7 day and big swings can be expected any time soon. We did not participate in trades yesterday as none of our trading plans got triggered.

Summary : The medium term down trend continues after this small halt. The intraday resistance around 5725 zone still remains, with intraday supports lowering to 5620. Positional shorts should be maintained. Newer positional shorts can still be created. 

Also see :  Our Positional nifty future and options calls.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -74 to -94 Bear Power also reduces from -187 to -153 indicating that the pause has caused more damage to the Bulls than to the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5795 to regain all of their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone now emphasizing the down move.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 05 Aug 2013 - Nifty remains in Sell on rise

Nifty keeps on falling unabated. Futile to look out for supports. Sell on rise.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty was posed undecided at the start of the trading session. The Nifty opened with a 22 point positive gap up at 5750. For the first three hours of the trading session, the Nifty traded with slight bullish traits, remaining above 5700 after having made a high of 5762 and barely moving into the red anytime during those 3 hours. Post that however, the Nifty again found direction on the down side and hit a newer recent low at 5649 in the wee hours of trade, before closing at 5678, with a loss of 50 points. We took a counter trend trade and booked out with a loss of 12 points well before our SL was hit.

Summary : Our question of Bullish recovery or a eyewash? was answered on Friday, with the Nifty posing even more bearish. On a positional basis, it would be futile to find support levels until they themselves emerge. Bounces if any could be used for intraday gains, but should be effectively used to build short positions.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -54 to -74 Bear Power rises from -186 to -187, indicating that the Bulls continue to lose strength in this bearish driven market. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5810 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5620 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. A few more closes below 5854 will push the Nifty into a longer term bearish phase.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have reduced with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may pause for now. The MACD continues to point downwards with the histogram too growing in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the bears, but is still favoring the down move. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its sell signal with the SL now shifted to 5958.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5730 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5750 and a target of 5640. We will add to these short positions only below 5610.

b) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5610 and a target of 5695. We will add to these long positions only above 5750.

Happy Trading !!! 

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 05 Aug 2013 - Nifty remains in Sell on rise

Nifty keeps on falling unabated. Futile to look out for supports. Sell on rise.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty was posed undecided at the start of the trading session. The Nifty opened with a 22 point positive gap up at 5750. For the first three hours of the trading session, the Nifty traded with slight bullish traits, remaining above 5700 after having made a high of 5762 and barely moving into the red anytime during those 3 hours. Post that however, the Nifty again found direction on the down side and hit a newer recent low at 5649 in the wee hours of trade, before closing at 5678, with a loss of 50 points. We took a counter trend trade and booked out with a loss of 12 points well before our SL was hit.

Summary : Our question of Bullish recovery or a eyewash? was answered on Friday, with the Nifty posing even more bearish. On a positional basis, it would be futile to find support levels until they themselves emerge. Bounces if any could be used for intraday gains, but should be effectively used to build short positions.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -54 to -74 Bear Power rises from -186 to -187, indicating that the Bulls continue to lose strength in this bearish driven market. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5810 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5620 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. A few more closes below 5854 will push the Nifty into a longer term bearish phase.