Nifty - 09 May 2014 - Bears take control

Nifty drifts downwards as Bulls take a back seat. End of week closing crucial now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was testing triple bottom. The Nifty drifted a bit lower than the support area around 6650 and recovered, but just that. The Nifty opened at 6670, then traded within a confined zone of 25 points between 6680 and 6655 for the next couple of hours. It briefly attempted a breakout, but could reach on 6688 ( below our identified resistance of 6695) but got sold off from there to breach the critical level of 6650 and made a low of 6639. From there, the Nifty recovered to close at 6660, lower than the opening mark, but higher than the previous close, thus keeping both the Bulls and the Bears on their toes.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from 0 to -22 Bear Power also reduces from -76 to -72 indicating that the Bears are in control as of now, but need to do more to keep the Bulls at bay. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6710 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6625 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 08 May 2014 - Testing triple bottom

Bears try to take control as Nifty tests 6650 for the third time, during this uptrend. 

As discussed yesterday, we were expecting "Listless grinding" on the Nifty as key averages would adjust with the time spent. However, the Nifty staying below the key pivot point of 6720, encouraged the Bears, who kept on making newer intraday lows and brought the Nifty to its key support levels around 6650 for the third time within a month of trading. The daily trend on the Nifty remains downwards, however, the weekly trend being upwards and stronger, may assert itself today or tomorrow and we need to be prepared for that. We took a trade on the long side yesterday, and booked a loss of 20 points as our SL got hit.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +14 to 0 Bear Power rises from -28 to -76 indicating that the Bears are stronger, but have not dislodged the Bulls as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6725 to regain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6635 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now well into the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs, but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 07 May 2014 - Listless grinding on

Nifty continues with its directionless rangebound movements as averages catch up.

As discussed yesterday, Rangebound gyrations continued on the Nifty. Nifty remained in a corrective mode with the major trend remaining upwards. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 20 points at 6719 and moved within a range of 24 points above the opening mark (6743) and 17 points below the opening mark (6702) before closing at 6715. The noteworthy point was that the Nifty traded in the green for the entire day. We took a trade on the short side and booked out with a profit of 20 points on that trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +9 to +14 Bear Power reduces from -51 to -28 indicating that the Nifty is now in a equilibrium. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6745 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6700 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still near the top of the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA but is above its 21EMA and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 06 May 2014 - Rangebound gyrations continue

Nifty snaps 5 day falling streak. Ranged moves expected due to lack of intensity.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty seemed to end its consolidation, by trading in the green for most of the trading session. The Nifty opened with a 13 point negative gap down at 6682 and immediately scaled to the levels of 6732 within the first few minutes of trade, only to get sold off to a level of 6690 in the next few minutes. Once this whipsaw was over, the Nifty then gyrated within a narrow range of 6700 and 6720 for most of the trading session. The Nifty's attempted breakout got thwarted at 6741 and the Nifty closed at 6699 after making a low of 6680.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from 0 to +9 Bear Power also rises from -48 to -51 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective zones and that the Bears are having a slight advantage as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6745 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6670 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just touching at the top of the oversold zone now.

3) The Nifty has yet again closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 05 May 2014 - Consolidation nearing end

After 5 consecutive red candles on the daily chart, expecting some green soon.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a volatile end of week on the bourses. The Bears continued their selling spree, albeit respecting the support line that is consistently rising. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 14 points at 6710 and immediately went up to 6738 within the first few minutes of trade, threatening a breakout. However, the Bears had different ideas and the Nifty then started to slide down. The Nifty not only breached the opening mark, but made three new intraday lows after that. The Nifty eventually made a low of 6690 before closing at 6695. We booked 45 points of profit in the overnight long positions.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +36 to 0 Bear Power also reduces from -88 to -48 indicating that the trading range is compacting which makes us think that the consolidation may end soon. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6740 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6680 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now hovering just above the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.