Nifty - 25 Oct 2012 - Expiry jitters

On expiry day, Nifty is in a no trade zone unless it breaks 5670 or 5715.

As discussed in our last post, we had the Nifty closing at the tipping point yet again. The up move could not be sustained at all and the Nifty got dragged back below 5700. However, yet again the Bears could not breach the 5650 levels and thus, the Nifty is now hanging right in the middle of the 5670 5715 trading zone, and we will be waiting patiently for the Nifty to breach this range on either side before making our next move.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +38 to +36 Bear Power also reduces from -27 to -3, indicating that the Bulls are having a slight edge as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5725 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5675 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (5692). However it has closed above its 13EMA (5685) and 21EMA (5659). The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the Nifty falling, indicating that the fall may not sustain long. The MACD continues to fall and the histogram continues to remain in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a rise in the overall momentum and the favour is still with the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5680, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5670 and a target of 5710. We will add to these long positions only above 5725.

b) Around 5715, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5725 and a target of 5685. We will add to these short positions only below 5670.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 25 Oct 2012 - Expiry jitters

On expiry day, Nifty is in a no trade zone unless it breaks 5670 or 5715.

As discussed in our last post, we had the Nifty closing at the tipping point yet again. The up move could not be sustained at all and the Nifty got dragged back below 5700. However, yet again the Bears could not breach the 5650 levels and thus, the Nifty is now hanging right in the middle of the 5670 5715 trading zone, and we will be waiting patiently for the Nifty to breach this range on either side before making our next move.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +38 to +36 Bear Power also reduces from -27 to -3, indicating that the Bulls are having a slight edge as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5725 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5675 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (5692). However it has closed above its 13EMA (5685) and 21EMA (5659). The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

Nifty - 23 Oct 2012 - At tipping point again

Bulls take Nifty to top end of trading range, but fall short of breaking out.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty almost passed the Test of the up trend, as even after disastrous global cues and a dismal negative gap down opening, the Nifty never broke below 5650 and ended smartly at the top of its trading range with a gain of 33 points. However, the Nifty stopped short of crossing the hump at 5725 5750 zone, which needs to be crossed over for a meaningful breakout.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +34 to +38 Bear Power also rises from -18 to -26 indicative of the equal grip of both Bulls and Bears over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5730 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has yet again closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty, raising suspicion about the up trend marching ahead. The MACD continues to fall, but the histogram seems to be rising although being in the negative. The ADX continues to favor the Bulls even with a weakening momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with a extremely long SL.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5680 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5660 and a target of 5750. We will add to these long positions only above 5770.

b) Below 5750 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5770 and a target of 5695. We will add to these short positions only below 5660.

Happy Trading !!!    

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 23 Oct 2012 - At tipping point again

Bulls take Nifty to top end of trading range, but fall short of breaking out.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty almost passed the Test of the up trend, as even after disastrous global cues and a dismal negative gap down opening, the Nifty never broke below 5650 and ended smartly at the top of its trading range with a gain of 33 points. However, the Nifty stopped short of crossing the hump at 5725 5750 zone, which needs to be crossed over for a meaningful breakout.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +34 to +38 Bear Power also rises from -18 to -26 indicative of the equal grip of both Bulls and Bears over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5730 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has yet again closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

Nifty - 22 Oct 2012 - Test of the up trend

After a failed break out, the weak global cues prepare the Nifty for retest of supports.

As discussed on Friday, the Thursday's Breakout needed validation. However, this validation test failed, once the Nifty opened with a 15 point negative gap down and was not able to regain its highs through out the trading session. The only silver lining for the Bulls was that they did not allow the Bears to break the previous day's lows and have kept the up trend intact in that aspect. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open again with a gap down, and retest its supports at 5610 5630 area.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +45 to +34 Bear Power rises from -27 to -18 indicating that currently neither the Bulls nor the Bears are in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5715 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5665 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (5685) but above its 13EMA (5678) and 21EMA (5650) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty making the downfall less sustainable. The MACD continues to fall with the histogram remaining in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a lowering of the momentum for the up move, but the Bulls are still favored. The Parabolic SAR holds out its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5630, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5610 and a target of 5700. We will add to these long positions only above 5755.

b) Around 5730 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5755 and a target of 5680. We will add to these short positions only below 5610.

Happy Trading !!!       

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 22 Oct 2012 - Test of the up trend

After a failed break out, the weak global cues prepare the Nifty for retest of supports.

As discussed on Friday, the Thursday's Breakout needed validation. However, this validation test failed, once the Nifty opened with a 15 point negative gap down and was not able to regain its highs through out the trading session. The only silver lining for the Bulls was that they did not allow the Bears to break the previous day's lows and have kept the up trend intact in that aspect. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open again with a gap down, and retest its supports at 5610 5630 area.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +45 to +34 Bear Power rises from -27 to -18 indicating that currently neither the Bulls nor the Bears are in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5715 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5665 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (5685) but above its 13EMA (5678) and 21EMA (5650) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone.