As a fresh series starts, it looks like the Bears are gaining momentum.Yesterday, we were expecting either a Breakout or Breakdown. However, the market chose to give us none, and instead, gave us a NR7 day. A NR7 day, is a day with the Narrowest Range in the last 7 trading sessions. Usually, a big move is expected on the following day, and the same may unfold today.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -40 to -69 Bear Power rises from -107 to -127, indicating that the Bears are now gaining momentum and the Bulls are weakening. For today, the Bears need to breach 5120 to maintain their momentum, whereas the Bulls need to crossover the hump of 5252 in order to regain their lost territory.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and below its 50 DMA. Yesterday, the Nifty took support at the 200DMA which is at 5150. A close below the 200DMA will charge up the bears.
3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, and hence a bounce back by the Bulls cannot be ruled out.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased, indicating that a big move may be developing. The MACD continues in the negative and holds on to its sell signal. The ADX is also suggesting that a major trend is developing and is indicating that, the trend could be downwards, as the -ADX is much above the +ADX. The Parabolic SAR also is continuing with its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5210, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5150. We will add to these short positions below 5130.
b) Around 5130, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5100 and a target of 5200. We will add to these long positions above 5255.
Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As a fresh series starts, it looks like the Bears are gaining momentum.
Yesterday, we were expecting either a Breakout or Breakdown. However, the market chose to give us none, and instead, gave us a NR7 day. A NR7 day, is a day with the Narrowest Range in the last 7 trading sessions. Usually, a big move is expected on the following day, and the same may unfold today.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -40 to -69 Bear Power rises from -107 to -127, indicating that the Bears are now gaining momentum and the Bulls are weakening. For today, the Bears need to breach 5120 to maintain their momentum, whereas the Bulls need to crossover the hump of 5252 in order to regain their lost territory.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and below its 50 DMA. Yesterday, the Nifty took support at the 200DMA which is at 5150. A close below the 200DMA will charge up the bears.
3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, and hence a bounce back by the Bulls cannot be ruled out.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased, indicating that a big move may be developing. The MACD continues in the negative and holds on to its sell signal. The ADX is also suggesting that a major trend is developing and is indicating that, the trend could be downwards, as the -ADX is much above the +ADX. The Parabolic SAR also is continuing with its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5210, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5150. We will add to these short positions below 5130.
b) Around 5130, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5100 and a target of 5200. We will add to these long positions above 5255.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As the current series expires, the Nifty is poised to make a big move. Direction awaited.As discussed yesterday, the whipsaw emerged, but was kind of slow ginding, and did not have the fullest range. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening. However, the key supports are nearing and weakening, which can lead the markets to either a breakout or a breakdown. It will be prudent for us to wait for the outcome rather than jumping the gun.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -13 to -40 Bear Power increases from -106 to -107, indicating that during the entire grinding session yesterday, the Bears have been able to maintain their momentum, while the Bulls have lost some more ground. As for today, the Bears need to breach 5150 to maintain their strength, whereas the Bulls need to cross 5260 to recover entirely.2) The Nifty is trading below all its key EMAs and has now given 3 consecutive closes below its 50 DMA, strengthening the case for a bearish breakdown. However, the key supports down below are its 200 DMA at 5151 and 100 DMA at 5072.3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, and are pointing deep downwards, again strengthening the case for a bearish breakdown.4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted, which indicates that the bears may have exhausted, making a case for a Bullish breakout. The MACD has come into the negative after a gap of almost 3 months, indicating that a bearish breakdown may be possible from hereon. The ADX is giving the most important signal, that a fresh move is developing. A baby is being born. Whether the baby is a bull or a bear, the ADX is silent on that. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold on to its Sell Signal. Overall, it is anybody's market today. The next big move is coming up. The chances of a bearish breakdown are slightly more than that of a bullish breakout, but it will be prudent to wait for our turn, rather than rushing into it.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5215, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5235 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions below 5145.b) Around 5175, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5210. We will add to these long positions only above 5240.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As the current series expires, the Nifty is poised to make a big move. Direction awaited.
As discussed yesterday, the whipsaw emerged, but was kind of slow ginding, and did not have the fullest range. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a subdued opening. However, the key supports are nearing and weakening, which can lead the markets to either a breakout or a breakdown. It will be prudent for us to wait for the outcome rather than jumping the gun.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -13 to -40 Bear Power increases from -106 to -107, indicating that during the entire grinding session yesterday, the Bears have been able to maintain their momentum, while the Bulls have lost some more ground. As for today, the Bears need to breach 5150 to maintain their strength, whereas the Bulls need to cross 5260 to recover entirely.
2) The Nifty is trading below all its key EMAs and has now given 3 consecutive closes below its 50 DMA, strengthening the case for a bearish breakdown. However, the key supports down below are its 200 DMA at 5151 and 100 DMA at 5072.
3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, and are pointing deep downwards, again strengthening the case for a bearish breakdown.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted, which indicates that the bears may have exhausted, making a case for a Bullish breakout. The MACD has come into the negative after a gap of almost 3 months, indicating that a bearish breakdown may be possible from hereon. The ADX is giving the most important signal, that a fresh move is developing. A baby is being born. Whether the baby is a bull or a bear, the ADX is silent on that. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold on to its Sell Signal. Overall, it is anybody's market today. The next big move is coming up. The chances of a bearish breakdown are slightly more than that of a bullish breakout, but it will be prudent to wait for our turn, rather than rushing into it.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5215, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5235 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions below 5145.
b) Around 5175, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5210. We will add to these long positions only above 5240.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As expiry approaches, and the Nifty still in no man's land, beware of the whipsaw.As discussed yesterday, it was a volatile day that unfolded, with the Nifty forming a "Long Legged Doji", one of the best examples of volatility. That volatile whipsaw is expected to continue, as the Nifty remains trend-less and stuck in no man's land. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a small down gap, and is expected to swing wildly within 5150 and 5280.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -23 to -13 Bear Power reduces from -124 to -106 indicating that though the Bears have relented a bit, the Bulls were not aggressive enough to regain their territory, and are still in the negative power. For today, the Bulls need to cross over 5285 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to breach 5180 to retain their current momentum. 2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and has given three consecutive closes below its 50 DMA which is at 5295 currently.3) The stochastics are just in the oversold zone, and are pointing flat.4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the Nifty actually getting nowhere, indicating that a new trend and a strong trend is about to emerge. The MACD continues to be negative, indicating a bearish bias. The ADX is suggesting a trend-less market with a slightly bearish bias. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out a sell signal. Overall, the market seems to be in the final stages of range-bound consolidation, and we will be waiting cautiously for the new trend to emerge.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5295, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of over 5330 and a target of 5190. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.b) Around 5190, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of below 5170 and a target of 5270. We will add to these long positions only above 5330.c) We will trade half of our normal trading volumes as, the SL limits have to be enlarged and the chances of hitting SL are that much more on such volatile days, especially when a new trend is expected to emerge.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As expiry approaches, and the Nifty still in no man's land, beware of the whipsaw.
As discussed yesterday, it was a volatile day that unfolded, with the Nifty forming a "Long Legged Doji", one of the best examples of volatility. That volatile whipsaw is expected to continue, as the Nifty remains trend-less and stuck in no man's land. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a small down gap, and is expected to swing wildly within 5150 and 5280.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -23 to -13 Bear Power reduces from -124 to -106 indicating that though the Bears have relented a bit, the Bulls were not aggressive enough to regain their territory, and are still in the negative power. For today, the Bulls need to cross over 5285 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to breach 5180 to retain their current momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and has given three consecutive closes below its 50 DMA which is at 5295 currently.
3) The stochastics are just in the oversold zone, and are pointing flat.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the Nifty actually getting nowhere, indicating that a new trend and a strong trend is about to emerge. The MACD continues to be negative, indicating a bearish bias. The ADX is suggesting a trend-less market with a slightly bearish bias. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out a sell signal. Overall, the market seems to be in the final stages of range-bound consolidation, and we will be waiting cautiously for the new trend to emerge.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5295, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of over 5330 and a target of 5190. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.
b) Around 5190, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of below 5170 and a target of 5270. We will add to these long positions only above 5330.
c) We will trade half of our normal trading volumes as, the SL limits have to be enlarged and the chances of hitting SL are that much more on such volatile days, especially when a new trend is expected to emerge.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
It will be a volatile day, as weakened Bulls grapple with strong Bears.Two days ago, we had suggested that volatility will be on rise. This seems to be unfolding now. Yesterday, was a day for the Bears, with the Nifty opening lower and then seeing some follow up selling by the Bears. Also the Nifty futures premium saw some major contraction, with the roll over costs getting higher. This indicates, that the volatility will stay till the current series expires, and then a clear trend will emerge. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a gap up, but is likely to see some more selling pressure at higher levels.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -5 t0 -23 Bear Power rises from -97 to -124, indicating that the Bears are now strong enough to drive the markets, however, the Bulls have not weakened enough. For today, the Bulls need to cross 5280 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to break 5155 to continue with their momentum.2) The Nifty is trading below its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA. However, the 200DMA is at 5154, which could turn out to be a key support.3) The fast stochastics are just hovering over the overbought zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that there is still some room for some more fall.4) In the above chart, the volumes are still keeping low, indicating lack of participation. The MACD is continuing to fall, indicating bearish undertones. The ADX is showing strengthening of the Bears, but is not confirming any set trend yet. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal. Overall, this is still anybody's market, and one should trade with an open mind.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5250, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5270 and a target of 5155. We will add to these short positions only below 5125.b) Around 5150, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5125 and a target of 5230. We will add to these long positions only above 5270.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
It will be a volatile day, as weakened Bulls grapple with strong Bears.
Two days ago, we had suggested that volatility will be on rise. This seems to be unfolding now. Yesterday, was a day for the Bears, with the Nifty opening lower and then seeing some follow up selling by the Bears. Also the Nifty futures premium saw some major contraction, with the roll over costs getting higher. This indicates, that the volatility will stay till the current series expires, and then a clear trend will emerge. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a gap up, but is likely to see some more selling pressure at higher levels.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -5 t0 -23 Bear Power rises from -97 to -124, indicating that the Bears are now strong enough to drive the markets, however, the Bulls have not weakened enough. For today, the Bulls need to cross 5280 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to break 5155 to continue with their momentum.
2) The Nifty is trading below its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA. However, the 200DMA is at 5154, which could turn out to be a key support.
3) The fast stochastics are just hovering over the overbought zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that there is still some room for some more fall.
4) In the above chart, the volumes are still keeping low, indicating lack of participation. The MACD is continuing to fall, indicating bearish undertones. The ADX is showing strengthening of the Bears, but is not confirming any set trend yet. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal. Overall, this is still anybody's market, and one should trade with an open mind.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5250, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5270 and a target of 5155. We will add to these short positions only below 5125.
b) Around 5150, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5125 and a target of 5230. We will add to these long positions only above 5270.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As the Nifty seeks new drivers and direction, rangebound consolidation is on.As discussed on Friday, it turned out to be a volatile day with the Nifty swinging within a 90 point range, amidst neither the Bulls nor the Bears able to take control. Today, too the same scenario is likely to be repeated unless one of the two comes forward with follow up.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +62 to -5 Bear Power also reduces from -118 to -97, indicating the lack of follow up on part of the Bears and the weakening of the Bulls, leading to volatility intraday. For today, the Bulls have to breach 5320 on the upside, to regain lost grounds and then have to breach 5380 to get some momentum going their way. On the other hand, the Bears need to breach 5220 on the downside, to maintain their current momentum.2) The Nifty continues to trade right between its key EMAs and its 100 and 200 DMAs. However, it is still below its 50 DMA. This is slightly biased towards the Bears, but they need to show some follow up selling.3) The Stochastics are totally flat, indicating no momentum at all.4) In the above chart, the volumes have dropped in Friday's small rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of interest amongst the market participants. The MACD has now gone into the negative after a long time, indicating a Bearish bias. The ADX is suggesting a listless market with both the Bears and the Bulls losing momentum. This is also a indication that a new strong support or a new strong resistance might be in the formation. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5295, we will initiate fresh short positions with a SL of 5320 and a target of 5235. We will add to these short positions below 5210.b) Around 5230, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5280. We will add to these long positions above 5330.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As the Nifty seeks new drivers and direction, rangebound consolidation is on.
As discussed on Friday, it turned out to be a volatile day with the Nifty swinging within a 90 point range, amidst neither the Bulls nor the Bears able to take control. Today, too the same scenario is likely to be repeated unless one of the two comes forward with follow up.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +62 to -5 Bear Power also reduces from -118 to -97, indicating the lack of follow up on part of the Bears and the weakening of the Bulls, leading to volatility intraday. For today, the Bulls have to breach 5320 on the upside, to regain lost grounds and then have to breach 5380 to get some momentum going their way. On the other hand, the Bears need to breach 5220 on the downside, to maintain their current momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade right between its key EMAs and its 100 and 200 DMAs. However, it is still below its 50 DMA. This is slightly biased towards the Bears, but they need to show some follow up selling.
3) The Stochastics are totally flat, indicating no momentum at all.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have dropped in Friday's small rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of interest amongst the market participants. The MACD has now gone into the negative after a long time, indicating a Bearish bias. The ADX is suggesting a listless market with both the Bears and the Bulls losing momentum. This is also a indication that a new strong support or a new strong resistance might be in the formation. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5295, we will initiate fresh short positions with a SL of 5320 and a target of 5235. We will add to these short positions below 5210.
b) Around 5230, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5280. We will add to these long positions above 5330.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
