Nifty facing roadblocks ahead. Bears need to act soon, else trend reversal possible.As discussed yesterday, it was Expiry Jitters all over the bourses. In what seemed to be a trend reversal, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 32 points at 5317 and made a low of 5303 in the first hour of trade. From thereon, the Nifty never looked like falling and in a sustained bullish trading session, the Nifty made a high of 5429 late in the day before closing at 5409. We had decided not to trade. However, we took a small trade on the short side and lost 41 points on 4 lots traded.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -142 to -24 Bear Power reduces from -341 to -150 indicating that the Bears are still in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5445 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5295 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.3) The Nifty has closed above its 8EMA, but has closed below its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may continue. The MACD continues to point downwards as yet, with the histogram still remaining in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a equilibrium with a slight favor in the bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL shifted down to 5517.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5425 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5445 and a target of 5340. We will add to these short positions only below 5295.b) Around 5315 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5295 and a target of 5390. We will add to these long positions only above 5445.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty facing roadblocks ahead. Bears need to act soon, else trend reversal possible.
As discussed yesterday, it was Expiry Jitters all over the bourses. In what seemed to be a trend reversal, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 32 points at 5317 and made a low of 5303 in the first hour of trade. From thereon, the Nifty never looked like falling and in a sustained bullish trading session, the Nifty made a high of 5429 late in the day before closing at 5409. We had decided not to trade. However, we took a small trade on the short side and lost 41 points on 4 lots traded.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -142 to -24 Bear Power reduces from -341 to -150 indicating that the Bears are still in control of the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5445 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5295 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.
3) The Nifty has closed above its 8EMA, but has closed below its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed below all its key DMAs.
Bulls recover post Bearish assertion. No levels sacrosanct for the day. Literally.As discussed yesterday, we expected a Bearish assertion. The Bears did assert themselves. The Nifty opened with a whopping negative gap down of 54 points at 5233. After whipsawing between 5233 and 5192 for the first hour of trade, the Nifty slipped below our identified level of 5180 and went down straight to 5119, from where, the Nifty recovered and went over to cross the opening highs and climb even further to make a intraday high of 5318 before closing at 5285. We took three trades and could garner a profit of 115 points in those trades.Summary : Although the Bulls have staged a smart recovery of sorts, the overall trend and momentum is still favoring the Bears. Having said that, for today, given that we have a series expiry on hand, no levels are sacrosanct.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -62 to -142 Bear Power rises from -215 to -341 indicating that despite the recovery, the Bulls have lost further grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5430 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5085 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing across each other.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the Nifty closing almost flat, indicating huge level of anxiety amongst traders. The MACD continues to point downwards, the histogram continues to remain stagnant, but in the negative. The ADX is suggesting huge rise in the bearish momentum and a fall in the bullish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5561.5) Considering the above, we have decided to step aside for the day and refrain from trading. It is better to save the profit than indulging into impulsive trades.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bulls recover post Bearish assertion. No levels sacrosanct for the day. Literally.
As discussed yesterday, we expected a Bearish assertion. The Bears did assert themselves. The Nifty opened with a whopping negative gap down of 54 points at 5233. After whipsawing between 5233 and 5192 for the first hour of trade, the Nifty slipped below our identified level of 5180 and went down straight to 5119, from where, the Nifty recovered and went over to cross the opening highs and climb even further to make a intraday high of 5318 before closing at 5285. We took three trades and could garner a profit of 115 points in those trades.
Summary : Although the Bulls have staged a smart recovery of sorts, the overall trend and momentum is still favoring the Bears. Having said that, for today, given that we have a series expiry on hand, no levels are sacrosanct.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -62 to -142 Bear Power rises from -215 to -341 indicating that despite the recovery, the Bulls have lost further grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5430 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5085 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing across each other.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
With the first yearly close below 5300, Bears have announced their intentions.As discussed yesterday, "Bulls had regained marginally" and that is where they stopped and yet again frittered away all their gains. The Nifty opened with a whopping negative gap down of 50 points at 5427 and immediately drifted down. The volatility increased as the Nifty found some footing at 5310 levels from where it staged a bounce of about 40 points during the day. However, that was utilized by the Bears as a selling point and the Nifty sold off to make a low of 5274 before closing at 5287 with a huge loss of 189 points. We took one trade in the short direction and booked a profit of 60 points in that trade. Also we squared off our positional short position taken on Friday and booked a profit of 100 points in that trade.Summary : The Monthly low of 5254 is in real danger now. If the Bears are able to breach that, then the Nifty can plunge another 200 points. However, considering that expiry is just about two trading sessions away, there could be some index management thrown in. 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +6 to -62 Bear Power rises from -68 to -215 indicating that the Bears have now stepped on the accelerator. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5465 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5275 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are still in the neutral zone, indicating some more room for a down move.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD is showing yet another aborted breakout, and continues to point downwards. The histogram has also again started growing in the negative zone. The ADX is now again favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to show its sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5600.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5315 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5340 and a target of 5200. We will add to these short positions only below 5180.b) Around 5195 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5285. We will add to these long positions only above 5340.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
With the first yearly close below 5300, Bears have announced their intentions.
As discussed yesterday, "Bulls had regained marginally" and that is where they stopped and yet again frittered away all their gains. The Nifty opened with a whopping negative gap down of 50 points at 5427 and immediately drifted down. The volatility increased as the Nifty found some footing at 5310 levels from where it staged a bounce of about 40 points during the day. However, that was utilized by the Bears as a selling point and the Nifty sold off to make a low of 5274 before closing at 5287 with a huge loss of 189 points. We took one trade in the short direction and booked a profit of 60 points in that trade. Also we squared off our positional short position taken on Friday and booked a profit of 100 points in that trade.
Summary : The Monthly low of 5254 is in real danger now. If the Bears are able to breach that, then the Nifty can plunge another 200 points. However, considering that expiry is just about two trading sessions away, there could be some index management thrown in.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +6 to -62 Bear Power rises from -68 to -215 indicating that the Bears have now stepped on the accelerator. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5465 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5275 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are still in the neutral zone, indicating some more room for a down move.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
Bulls recover lost grounds, but can they hold on? Sell on rise continues as of now.As discussed yesterday, the Nifty did knock at the doors of a breakout. However, it managed to do just that and retreated back. The Nifty opened at 5499 with a nice positive gap of 28 points and traded within a range of 5530 and 5470 for most of the trading session. However, all attempts at a breakout were successfully blocked. The Nifty made a low of 5454 before closing at 5477 with a small gain of 5 points. We took a trade on the short side and booked a profit of 42 points by EOD.Summary : The corrective up move on the Nifty seems to have been completed just within the cluster of the falling EMAs and the bearish setup can assert itself unless the Bulls take charge of the Nifty. Nifty has found it difficult to sustain above 5500, which indicates its inherent weakness.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -52 to +6 Bear Power reduces from -153 to -68 indicating that the Bulls need to do much more work to remain relevant. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5535 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5445 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone.3) The Nifty has closed just above its 8EMA but has closed below its 13EMA and 21EMA. Also it has closed below all its key DMAs. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the small rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise may get arrested. The MACD continues its attempt to indicate a breakout, but is falling short of it. The histogram remains in the negative, but is seen rising. The ADX is now favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5630.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5500 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5525 and a target of 5400. We will add to these short positions only below 5380.b) Around 5405 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5380 and a target of 5465. We will add to these long positions only above 5525.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bulls recover lost grounds, but can they hold on? Sell on rise continues as of now.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty did knock at the doors of a breakout. However, it managed to do just that and retreated back. The Nifty opened at 5499 with a nice positive gap of 28 points and traded within a range of 5530 and 5470 for most of the trading session. However, all attempts at a breakout were successfully blocked. The Nifty made a low of 5454 before closing at 5477 with a small gain of 5 points. We took a trade on the short side and booked a profit of 42 points by EOD.
Summary : The corrective up move on the Nifty seems to have been completed just within the cluster of the falling EMAs and the bearish setup can assert itself unless the Bulls take charge of the Nifty. Nifty has found it difficult to sustain above 5500, which indicates its inherent weakness.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -52 to +6 Bear Power reduces from -153 to -68 indicating that the Bulls need to do much more work to remain relevant. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5535 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5445 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone.
3) The Nifty has closed just above its 8EMA but has closed below its 13EMA and 21EMA. Also it has closed below all its key DMAs.
Nifty ends week stopping short of crucial 5495. Bearishness continues below 5510.As discussed on Friday, which was a crucial end of week before expiry, the Nifty consolidated and ended just below the day's highs knocking at the doors of a breakout. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 20 points at 5429 then traded bearishly for the first hour and made a low of 5479, no where near the previous day's lows, thus emboldening the Bulls and then the Nifty kept on steadily overcoming the day's highs and building on them. The Nifty finally made a high of 5478 before closing at 5472.Summary : Bulls need a close above 5495 still, and that level has evaded them as yet. If they are not able to capture and hold on to it decisively, the fall can be fast and furious. 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -122 to -53 Bear Power reduces from -286 to -153 indicating that the Bears are still in full control of the Nifty and that the Bulls have their work cut out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5525 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5370 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The stochastics are out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the rise may stall shortly. The MACD continues to remain in the negative, but this time again it is attempting a reversal. The histogram is too rising but is still in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a convergence, indicating equilibrium in the Nifty. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5663.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Around 5510, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5530 and a target of 5415. We will add to these short positions only below 5370.b) Around 5390, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5370 and a target of 5460. We will add to these long positions only above 5530.Happy Trading !!! Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Nifty ends week stopping short of crucial 5495. Bearishness continues below 5510.
As discussed on Friday, which was a crucial end of week before expiry, the Nifty consolidated and ended just below the day's highs knocking at the doors of a breakout. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 20 points at 5429 then traded bearishly for the first hour and made a low of 5479, no where near the previous day's lows, thus emboldening the Bulls and then the Nifty kept on steadily overcoming the day's highs and building on them. The Nifty finally made a high of 5478 before closing at 5472.
Summary : Bulls need a close above 5495 still, and that level has evaded them as yet. If they are not able to capture and hold on to it decisively, the fall can be fast and furious.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -122 to -53 Bear Power reduces from -286 to -153 indicating that the Bears are still in full control of the Nifty and that the Bulls have their work cut out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5525 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5370 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The stochastics are out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.
3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the rise may stall shortly. The MACD continues to remain in the negative, but this time again it is attempting a reversal. The histogram is too rising but is still in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a convergence, indicating equilibrium in the Nifty. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now shifted down to 5663.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5510, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5530 and a target of 5415. We will add to these short positions only below 5370.
b) Around 5390, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5370 and a target of 5460. We will add to these long positions only above 5530.
Happy Trading !!!
Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
