In a choppy market, the Nifty is trading at the top end of its short term range.Yesterday, we had said, "The bias is still downward", however, after "the retest of recent lows" two days ago, the Bears seemed to get exhausted, and were not able to breach the previous days low. As per our rules of "identifying market trends", the bears needed to breach lows in order to keep the down trend intact. Their failure to do so, led the bulls to takeover the Nifty, and they staged a smart comeback. However, the Bulls have stopped just short of their recent highs near 4955, which could act as a resistance point for today. A failure by both the Bulls and the Bears would lead to an increase in choppiness on the Nifty.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -85 to -4 Bear Power reduces from -135 to -106, indicating that even after the smart pullback by the Bulls, the Bears are still in the drivers seat, albeit a lot weakened. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4940, whereas the Bears need to breach 4830 to maintain their current momentum.2) The Nifty is now trading below its key DMAs and its 13 and 21 EMAs, however, it is above its 8 EMA which is at 4900, which could be a key pivot point for the Nifty now.3) The Stochastics are just out of the oversold zone, and are pointing upwards now. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with yesterday's rise in the Nifty, indicating sustainability to the up move. The MACD is in the negative, but is showing some strengthening now, indicative of an up move. The ADX is still in the favor of the bears, but is signalling a weakening of the down trend. The Parabolic SAR enters the 3rd day of is buy signal.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Above 4895, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4865 and a target of 4980. We will add to these long positions only above 4995.b) Around 4985, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4995 and a target of 4900. We will add to these short positions only below 4850.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
In a choppy market, the Nifty is trading at the top end of its short term range.
Yesterday, we had said, "The bias is still downward", however, after "the retest of recent lows" two days ago, the Bears seemed to get exhausted, and were not able to breach the previous days low. As per our rules of "identifying market trends", the bears needed to breach lows in order to keep the down trend intact. Their failure to do so, led the bulls to takeover the Nifty, and they staged a smart comeback. However, the Bulls have stopped just short of their recent highs near 4955, which could act as a resistance point for today. A failure by both the Bulls and the Bears would lead to an increase in choppiness on the Nifty.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -85 to -4 Bear Power reduces from -135 to -106, indicating that even after the smart pullback by the Bulls, the Bears are still in the drivers seat, albeit a lot weakened. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4940, whereas the Bears need to breach 4830 to maintain their current momentum.
2) The Nifty is now trading below its key DMAs and its 13 and 21 EMAs, however, it is above its 8 EMA which is at 4900, which could be a key pivot point for the Nifty now.
3) The Stochastics are just out of the oversold zone, and are pointing upwards now.
With the Nifty entering consolidation mode, the bias is still Bearish.As discussed yesterday, it was a day to "retest the recent lows", and the Nifty did go to near about 4800, and remained range bound within a 50 point trading range during the entire trading session. Today, it could be yet another grinding day, when the Nifty consolidates within a confined trading range.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +1 to -85 Bear Power rises from -106 to -135, indicating that the Bulls could not retain their safety, and that the Bears are now really driving the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4925 to regain their safety, whereas the Bears need to breach 4795 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The Nifty is still trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs,3) The stochastics have just re-entered the oversold zone, reconfirming the downward direction of the current trend. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have started depleting, indicating lack of participation from the traders. The MACD is in the negative and is refusing to rise, indicating lack of any upwards momentum as yet. The ADX is now indicating a strengthening of the downwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR still holds a Buy signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day, is as under.
a) Above 4830, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4865. We will add to these long positions only above 4915.
b) Around 4870 and again below 4830, we will open fresh short positions with a 25 point SL and a target of 4790. We will add to these short positions only below 4760.
Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
With the Nifty entering consolidation mode, the bias is still Bearish.
As discussed yesterday, it was a day to "retest the recent lows", and the Nifty did go to near about 4800, and remained range bound within a 50 point trading range during the entire trading session. Today, it could be yet another grinding day, when the Nifty consolidates within a confined trading range.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +1 to -85 Bear Power rises from -106 to -135, indicating that the Bulls could not retain their safety, and that the Bears are now really driving the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4925 to regain their safety, whereas the Bears need to breach 4795 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty is still trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs,
3) The stochastics have just re-entered the oversold zone, reconfirming the downward direction of the current trend.
During the current phase of consolidation, the retest of 4780 seems due today.As discussed yesterday, it was a case of "Grinding Consolidation" on the Nifty for most of the trading session, when the Nifty traded listlessly within a 30 point range, before plunging more than 90 points in the last hour of the trade. Today, the Bearish down move is likely to resume, but could get arrested around 4780, just for a while.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power recovers from -34 to +1 Bear Power increases from -83 to -106, indicating that through a late hour sell off, the Bears have been able to maintain their momentum, however, the Bulls have also regained their lost grounds, and a pull back from low levels cannot be ruled out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4945 to remain in safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4830 to maintain their down swinging momentum.2) The Nifty is still trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.3) The Stochastics which were about to come out of the oversold zone, have returned back to the oversold zone now. This is one indication, where a pullback seems possible. 4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased, but not substantially, in yesterday's decline in the Nifty, indicating that the Nifty could be at the bottom of its trading range. The MACD is in the negative and the histogram continues to rise, but is not supported by the MACD line. This indicates the consolidation phase on the Nifty. The ADX is suggesting a weakening down move currently on the Nifty. The Parabolic SAR is holding out a buy signal.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Below 4890, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4925 and a target of 4800. We will add to these short positions only below 4770.b) Around 4795, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4770 and a target of 4890. We will add to these long positions only above 4925.Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
During the current phase of consolidation, the retest of 4780 seems due today.
As discussed yesterday, it was a case of "Grinding Consolidation" on the Nifty for most of the trading session, when the Nifty traded listlessly within a 30 point range, before plunging more than 90 points in the last hour of the trade. Today, the Bearish down move is likely to resume, but could get arrested around 4780, just for a while.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power recovers from -34 to +1 Bear Power increases from -83 to -106, indicating that through a late hour sell off, the Bears have been able to maintain their momentum, however, the Bulls have also regained their lost grounds, and a pull back from low levels cannot be ruled out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4945 to remain in safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4830 to maintain their down swinging momentum.
2) The Nifty is still trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The Stochastics which were about to come out of the oversold zone, have returned back to the oversold zone now. This is one indication, where a pullback seems possible.
With bearish technicals and bullish global cues, the Nifty is likely to grind range bound.As discussed yesterday, we could sense the "Bearish hold" on the Nifty for almost the entire trading session, when, after a flat opening, the Nifty rallied up by 50 points but gave up all those gains in the last 30 minutes of trade. The Nifty never looked like running away, in spite of the smart recovery rally staged on Friday.1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -74 to -34 Bear Power reduces from -194 to -83, indicating that the Bulls are now withing striking distance of safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4965 to return to safety whereas the Bears need to breach 4875 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and its key DMAs. 3) The Stochastics are just moving out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards, indicating a mild rally on the cards.4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted in yesterday's small rise on the Nifty, indicating lack of participation in the rise. The MACD is in the negative but is rising, indicating that a up move may be ready to play out. The ADX is suggesting a weakening down trend. The Parabolic SAR has just turned from Sell to Buy.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.a) Above 4915, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4885 and a target of 4975. We will add to these long positions only above 5010.b) Around 4980, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5010, and a target of 4910 and below that 4875. We will add to these short positions only below 4855. Happy Trading !!! For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
With bearish technicals and bullish global cues, the Nifty is likely to grind range bound.
As discussed yesterday, we could sense the "Bearish hold" on the Nifty for almost the entire trading session, when, after a flat opening, the Nifty rallied up by 50 points but gave up all those gains in the last 30 minutes of trade. The Nifty never looked like running away, in spite of the smart recovery rally staged on Friday.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -74 to -34 Bear Power reduces from -194 to -83, indicating that the Bulls are now withing striking distance of safety. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4965 to return to safety whereas the Bears need to breach 4875 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The Stochastics are just moving out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards, indicating a mild rally on the cards.
Although the Nifty staged a smart pullback on Friday, the Bearish clutch still holds.As discussed on Friday, "The Gap Down" came to the aid of bears who were looking almost exhausted by the end of Thursday's trade. However, in spite of this gap down, the Bears were not able to keep the Nifty down, and then the Bulls made a smart pullback, up to almost 4900, but were not able to take the Nifty into a bullish zone. Our plan b, "Above 4770, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4835 and above that 4880." worked almost to perfection on Friday.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases only slightly from -76 to -74 Bear Power rises from -148 to -194, indicating that the rally on Friday has very high chances of turning into a eyewash. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4970 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 4770 to maintain their momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The Stochastics are still well in the oversold zone.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant in Friday's rise. The MACD is in the negative and the Histogram is threatening to rise, indicating that a rally could not be ruled out. However, the ADX is suggesting a strong downtrend, and the Parabolic SAR is continuing to hold out its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Below 4925, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4960 and a target of 4820. We will add to these short positions only below 4780.
b) Around 4820, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4790 and a target of 4865 and then 4910. We will add to these long positions only above 4960.
Happy Trading !!!For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Although the Nifty staged a smart pullback on Friday, the Bearish clutch still holds.
As discussed on Friday, "The Gap Down" came to the aid of bears who were looking almost exhausted by the end of Thursday's trade. However, in spite of this gap down, the Bears were not able to keep the Nifty down, and then the Bulls made a smart pullback, up to almost 4900, but were not able to take the Nifty into a bullish zone. Our plan b, "Above 4770, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4835 and above that 4880." worked almost to perfection on Friday.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases only slightly from -76 to -74 Bear Power rises from -148 to -194, indicating that the rally on Friday has very high chances of turning into a eyewash. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4970 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 4770 to maintain their momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The Stochastics are still well in the oversold zone.
The weekly downturn has got arrested, but no signs of a rally yet. Pain continues. Let us start with the week gone by,On 14th May, we had said, "Sell on Rally continues", and we saw the Nifty getting sold into every rally towards its previous day's high of 4976, and could make a high only of 4957, before there was confusion all over, when the NSE futures & options servers gave away, and trading in the f&o section halted for more than 90 minutes almost. The Nifty finally managed to close with a 21 point loss at around 4910.On 15th May, we had suggested that "The weekly supports were approaching" and again we saw Nifty open with a nice little gap down, and then rally immediately to its previous day's highs, and close with a gain of almost 35 points. Then on 16th May, we had written that "This rally may not sustain", considering that it was not able to take out previous day's high successfully. Here again, the Nifty obliged by opening with a huge gap down and closing with a loss of 85 points at 4858.On 17th May, we sensed that a "Whipsaw" was coming our way, and this whipsaw spread over the next two days, during which the Nifty saw a opening of 4880, high of 4922, low of 4789 and a close of 4890. So the Nifty gyrated withing these two days, 120 points without going anywhere.Overall, the Nifty remained ranged withing 4950 and 4780 during the entire week, as discussed in our trading plan for the last week. As for the next week, the scene continues to be gloomy on the technical front, and we try to explain on that further below. 1) The Elder Ray readings : On a weekly basis, the Bull Power has reduced from -56 to -183 whereas the Bear Power has risen from -275 to -351, indicating that the Bears have kept their promise of the last week and are still driving the Nifty. For this week, the Bulls need to overcome 5105 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach below 4760 to maintain their downwards momentum.2) On a weekly basis, the Nifty is still trading below all its key weekly EMAs and its weekly 50 and 100 weekly DMAs. The 200 Weekly DMA at 4820 may provide that vital support now. 3) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant while the Nifty has fallen slightly, indicating continuation of the downtrend, albeit with a lesser momentum. The MACD continues to fall indicating a negative trend. The ADX is indicating a strong momentum with a clear bias towards the bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold its sell signal.4) Overall, the Nifty remains bearish for a consecutive 5th week, with the trading range getting lower into 4760 and 5010 levels.5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the week is as under.a) Below 4880, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4910 and a target of 4810.
b) Above 4915, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4885 and a target of 5015.
c) Around 5015, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5045 and targets of 4820, 4785 and 4740.
d) Around 4750, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4730 and targets of 4915, 4955 and 5015.
Happy Trading !!!
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
The weekly downturn has got arrested, but no signs of a rally yet. Pain continues.
Let us start with the week gone by,
On 14th May, we had said, "Sell on Rally continues", and we saw the Nifty getting sold into every rally towards its previous day's high of 4976, and could make a high only of 4957, before there was confusion all over, when the NSE futures & options servers gave away, and trading in the f&o section halted for more than 90 minutes almost. The Nifty finally managed to close with a 21 point loss at around 4910.
On 15th May, we had suggested that "The weekly supports were approaching" and again we saw Nifty open with a nice little gap down, and then rally immediately to its previous day's highs, and close with a gain of almost 35 points.
Then on 16th May, we had written that "This rally may not sustain", considering that it was not able to take out previous day's high successfully. Here again, the Nifty obliged by opening with a huge gap down and closing with a loss of 85 points at 4858.
On 17th May, we sensed that a "Whipsaw" was coming our way, and this whipsaw spread over the next two days, during which the Nifty saw a opening of 4880, high of 4922, low of 4789 and a close of 4890. So the Nifty gyrated withing these two days, 120 points without going anywhere.
Overall, the Nifty remained ranged withing 4950 and 4780 during the entire week, as discussed in our trading plan for the last week. As for the next week, the scene continues to be gloomy on the technical front, and we try to explain on that further below.
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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
