Nifty - 02 Nov 2012 - Bulls need follow up

With 2 successive green days, Bulls have stopped the downfall. Must follow up now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened, traded and closed right within the range that could be said to define the trading mode range. The Nifty opened with a 10 point gap down, but never looked like going down right from the go and finally closed near the top of the trading channel, just below the cluster of resistances formed by the key EMAs. Our plan (b) got triggered, but did neither reach its target nor its SL, and we were able to book out with a small 10 point profit.

"Beware of the whipsaw" will be our mantra for the day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -38 to -10 Bear Power reduces from -80 to -58 indicating that the Bulls are not out of the woods yet and only a follow up of buying at higher prices would help them out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5665 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5595 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of conviction in the up move as of now. The MACD is continuing to fall with the histogram continuing to remain in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the momentum, with the Bulls and Bears being in equilibrium. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5680 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5695 and a target of 5630. We will add to these short positions only below 5595.

b) Around 5615 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5595 and a target of 5665. We will add to these long positions only above 5695.

Happy Trading !!!      

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 02 Nov 2012 - Bulls need follow up

With 2 successive green days, Bulls have stopped the downfall. Must follow up now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened, traded and closed right within the range that could be said to define the trading mode range. The Nifty opened with a 10 point gap down, but never looked like going down right from the go and finally closed near the top of the trading channel, just below the cluster of resistances formed by the key EMAs. Our plan (b) got triggered, but did neither reach its target nor its SL, and we were able to book out with a small 10 point profit.

"Beware of the whipsaw" will be our mantra for the day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -38 to -10 Bear Power reduces from -80 to -58 indicating that the Bulls are not out of the woods yet and only a follow up of buying at higher prices would help them out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5665 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5595 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

Nifty - 01 Nov 2012 - Trading mode continues

Nifty stays in trading mode with 'Buy on dips' & 'Sell on rise' both being applicable.

As discussed yesterday, we got a volatile month end trade, with the Nifty opening almost flat and then gyrating violently within a narrow range of 35 points for almost the entire trading session, before the Bulls found some initiative in the last hour to close the Nifty near the high of the day with a gain of 22 points. Both of our plans (a) and (b) hit their targets, however, none of them started.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +20 to -38 Bear Power remains stagnant at -80 indicating that though the Bulls have lost their grounds, the Bears have not been able to stretch their lead, which might lead to a bi-directional trade ahead. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5660 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5560 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs which are clustered in the 5655 5665 region. The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs which are rising, the nearest being the 50DMA at 5547.

3) The stochastics are now in the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly reduced with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise could be deceptive. The MACD continues to fall indicating that the down move may continue. The ADX continues to favor the Bears in a market where momentum is at a low. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5585 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5565 and a target of 5635. We will add to these long positions only above 5665.

b) Around 5640 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5665 and a target of 5595. We will add to these short positions only below 5565.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 01 Nov 2012 - Trading mode continues

Nifty stays in trading mode with 'Buy on dips' & 'Sell on rise' both being applicable.

As discussed yesterday, we got a volatile month end trade, with the Nifty opening almost flat and then gyrating violently within a narrow range of 35 points for almost the entire trading session, before the Bulls found some initiative in the last hour to close the Nifty near the high of the day with a gain of 22 points. Both of our plans (a) and (b) hit their targets, however, none of them started.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +20 to -38 Bear Power remains stagnant at -80 indicating that though the Bulls have lost their grounds, the Bears have not been able to stretch their lead, which might lead to a bi-directional trade ahead. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5660 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5560 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs which are clustered in the 5655 5665 region. The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs which are rising, the nearest being the 50DMA at 5547.

3) The stochastics are now in the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

Nifty - 31 Oct 2012 - Volatile end of month

As the Nifty nears short term supports, volatility may rise on the last day of month.

As discussed yesterday, the Bullish consolidation that continued on the Nifty for last 14 sessions, gave way to a breakdown of sorts, as the RBI did not cut the interest rates as expected by the markets. Our plan (a) triggered and hit its target. Also our plan(b) got triggered and hit its target. Not only that part (b) of our plan(b) also got triggered later in the day. All in all we could book a hefty profit of 120 points in a day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +17 to +20 Bear Power also rises from -37 to -80 indicative of the volatility that lies ahead. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5685 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5580 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now almost touching the oversold zone.

 

4) In the above charts the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the downfall may sustain for now. The MACD continues to fall and the histogram becomes even more negative. The ADX is now suggesting more momentum for the downtrend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5560 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5545 and a target of 5620. We will add to these long positions only above 5655.

b) Around 5635 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5655 and a target of 5585. We will add to these short positions only below 5545.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 31 Oct 2012 - Volatile end of month

As the Nifty nears short term supports, volatility may rise on the last day of month.

As discussed yesterday, the Bullish consolidation that continued on the Nifty for last 14 sessions, gave way to a breakdown of sorts, as the RBI did not cut the interest rates as expected by the markets. Our plan (a) triggered and hit its target. Also our plan(b) got triggered and hit its target. Not only that part (b) of our plan(b) also got triggered later in the day. All in all we could book a hefty profit of 120 points in a day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +17 to +20 Bear Power also rises from -37 to -80 indicative of the volatility that lies ahead. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5685 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5580 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now almost touching the oversold zone.

Nifty - 30 Oct 2012 - Bullish consolidation continues

All eyes will be on the RBI as the Bullish consolidation on the Nifty continues.

We have been away from the markets for the last couple of days, and seem to have not missed much of the action. The Nifty has been continuing to gyrate within a 50 point range between 5650 and 5700 maintaining its bullish stance all through these trading sessions by not breaching the 5640 mark any time.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +13 to +17 Bear Power reduces from -43 to -37 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears have a equal grip on the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5725 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to tak the Nifty below 5635 to maintain their downwards momenutum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA (5683) and 13EMA (5684) but has closed just above its 21EMA (5663) and has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing in opposite directions, indicating that Nifty may now move in either of the directions.

4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased yesterday indicating caution excercised by the market participants just before the RBI monetary policy review. The MACD continues to fall with the histogram staying in the negative. The ADX is indicating a loss of momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5650, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5635 and a target of 5690. We will add to these long positions only above 5700.

b) Around 5695, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5700 and a target of 5655. We will add to these short positions only below 5635.

Happy Trading !!!      

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 30 Oct 2012 - Bullish consolidation continues

All eyes will be on the RBI as the Bullish consolidation on the Nifty continues.

We have been away from the markets for the last couple of days, and seem to have not missed much of the action. The Nifty has been continuing to gyrate within a 50 point range between 5650 and 5700 maintaining its bullish stance all through these trading sessions by not breaching the 5640 mark any time.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +13 to +17 Bear Power reduces from -43 to -37 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears have a equal grip on the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5725 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to tak the Nifty below 5635 to maintain their downwards momenutum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA (5683) and 13EMA (5684) but has closed just above its 21EMA (5663) and has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing in opposite directions, indicating that Nifty may now move in either of the directions.