Nifty - 11 Jul 2014 - Volatile end of week

Post a 250+ points ranged session, Nifty may consolidate but volatility set to rise.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Budget day Blues" on the Nifty, with a very wide 252 ranged session, as both the Bulls and the Bears sought to take control of the proceedings. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 5 points at 7590 and traded in a confined range up to the start of the Budget speech, when it started to plunge into a nosedive. The Nifty reached the low point of 7479 before noon, where it found not only buying support, but it turned so much Bullish that the Nifty crossed the day's high and reached 7731 within the next couple of hours. Finally, the Nifty closed at 7568 with a loss of 17 points against its previous close.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +18 to +108 Bear Power also rises from -80 to -144 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears have not got stronger with the Bears having a slight edge. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7725 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7465 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the neutral zone and continue to point downwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

 

4) In the above chart the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has resumed its Sell signal with the histogram too growing in the negative. The ADX on the contrary, is suggesting a rise in the Bullish momentum and a fall in the Bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its SELL signal with the SL now brought down to 7796.

5) Considering the developing trading range expansion and volatility rise, we would like to sit aside one more day and look out for direction by the end of today's trading session.

Happy Trading !!! 

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