Nifty - 24 Jan 2014 - Bulls lack conviction

Nifty halts at the top end of the trading range. Bulls need to defend 6300 now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty which was repositioned for a break out, remained that way, that is just repositioned for a break out. The breakout never did materialize as the Nifty did not even come near to our identified zone of 6375 6390. At the end of the day, the Nifty however, maintained its bullish stance, thwarting away all the efforts by the Bears and absorbing all the selling pressure. Global cues at the start of trade this morning are supportive to the Bears and a gap down opening is likely. The further mood on the Nifty will be decided on whether and then how easily the Bears break the 6300 6285 zone for the day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +74 to +70 Bear Power also reduces from +11 to +30 indicating that both the parties have lost some grounds in this tug of war. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6365 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6295 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 23 Jan 2014 - Repositioned for a breakout

Nifty realigns for a break out. Depends on how easily Bulls take out 6375 6390 zone.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty has been hovering between supports & resistances, for quite a few trading sessions now. The Nifty traded in a similar fashion for the entire trading session, idling between 6285 and 6320 for the major part of the trading session. However, in the last hour of the trade, the Nifty broke the shackles of 6330 but could not overcome 6350 and closed at 6339 with a gain of 25 points. It would be interesting to watch how the Bulls tackle  the 6375 6390 zone.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +65 to +74 Bear Power also rises from +32 to +11 indicating that though the Nifty is poised for a breakout, the Bears are not far behind. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6365 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6280 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are now in the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 22 Jan 2014 - Hovering between supports & resistances

Nifty forms a NR7 day, idling between supports & resistances. Big move soon.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty had passed its test of supports and now is hovering bullishly but not able to surmount the resistances and the falling trendline. The Nifty in doing so, has formed a NR7 day yesterday and a big move on the either side may be expected soon. The critical levels to watch out for during the next couple of trading sessions would be 6250 and 6350 on either side.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +50 to +65 Bear Power reduces from -14 to +32 indicating that the Bears have lost their grounds within two days of recovering it. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6345 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 6270 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics keep on hovering just below the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 21 Jan 2014 - Test of supports passed

Nifty tests supports and rises above 6300, just to test resistances yet again.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty had returned back to neutral territory. However, the Bears were unable to breach the near term support zone and the Bulls then took over and crossed the psychological level of 6300. The Bulls, though were unable to cross the previous day's highs, after the Bears had breached the previous day's lows, albeit by just 3 points. The Nifty therefore stays within striking distance for both the parties. We took a trade on the short side as per our trading plan and could book a small profit of 15 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +77 to +50 Bear Power rises from -3 to -14 indicating that despite the rise in the Nifty, the Bears have gained some further grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6320 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6250 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are just below the overbought zone and are pointing across each other.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 20 Jan 2014 - Nifty returns to neutral territory

After failing to rise above near term resistances, Nifty returns back to support levels.

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty which had retained its bullish stance, pulled back about 6o points yet remained in the Bullish zone. The Nifty opened with a 13 point negative gap down at 6306 and made a high of 6327 in the first hour itself. The Nifty failed to reach our identified resistance zone of 6355 on Friday, and just after the first hour, the sell off started gradually, and the Nifty made a new low by the hour. During this fall, our trading plan of going long triggered, and we could make a small profit of 13 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +99 To +77 Bear Power rises from +52 to -3 indicating that the Bulls have given up a little, but the Bears have regained their lost grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6335 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6245 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics barely touched the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.