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Friday 8 March 2013

Nifty - 08 Mar 2013 - Crucial week end

Today's close will determine whether this is a pullback or a bullish reversal.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls regained their footing and also stamped their authority all over the Nifty yesterday. The Nifty opened with a down gap of 17 points, but never lost even a fraction of a point thereafter, and after a long 3 hour consolidation in a narrow 20 point range, the Nifty broke out in the afternoon, to touch a high of 5878 before closing at 5863. We did not trade yesterday, as the trend was not clear. Today's close will determine whether the Nifty wants to keep on moving higher.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +20 to +62 Bear Power also rises from -13 to -15, indicating that still the Bears are retaining their safe zone and cannot be counted out as yet. However, the Bulls are gaining strength. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5890 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5795 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and also its 200DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed below its 50DMA(5942)

3) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that there could be resistances round the corner now. The MACD has given a positive signal, with the histogram too turning positive. The ADX is signalling a rise in momentum for the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR has now turned into a buy signal with a initial SL at 5664.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5830, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5800 and a target of 5885. We will add to these long positions only above 5925.

b) Around 5900, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5925 and a target of 5850. We will add to these short positions only below 5800.

Happy Trading !!!      

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 08 Mar 2013 - Crucial week end

Today's close will determine whether this is a pullback or a bullish reversal.

As discussed yesterday, the Bulls regained their footing and also stamped their authority all over the Nifty yesterday. The Nifty opened with a down gap of 17 points, but never lost even a fraction of a point thereafter, and after a long 3 hour consolidation in a narrow 20 point range, the Nifty broke out in the afternoon, to touch a high of 5878 before closing at 5863. We did not trade yesterday, as the trend was not clear. Today's close will determine whether the Nifty wants to keep on moving higher.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +20 to +62 Bear Power also rises from -13 to -15, indicating that still the Bears are retaining their safe zone and cannot be counted out as yet. However, the Bulls are gaining strength. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5890 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5795 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and also its 200DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed below its 50DMA(5942)

3) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

Thursday 7 March 2013

Nifty - 07 Mar 13 - Bulls regain footing

Bulls regain their losses, Nifty faces roadblocks, Big moves may unleash ahead.

As discussed yesterday, Bulls did stage a reversal, in the down trend that we had over the past few trading sessions. Nifty opened with a hefty 32 points positive gap, but faced resistance around 5825 and could not move up in yesterday's move. The Nifty closed at 5819 with a gain of 34 points by the end of day. It made a high of 5829 and a low of 5795 during the trading session. Our trading plan(a) triggered, did not hit the SL, but did not hit the target too. We were able to book out with a gain of 20 points, thanks to our timely analysis that we were against the immediate trend.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -16 to +20 Bear Power reduces from -84 to -13 indicating that the Bulls have now regained all their lost grounds, however the Bears too are not 'down and out' yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5830 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5790 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed 8EMA 13EMA and 200DMA. However, it has closed below its 21EMA 100DMA and 50DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone now and are pointing upwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly increased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the up move may continue. The MACD is still in the negative and is showing a unconfirmed reversal to move upwards. The ADX is now clearly favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now pegged at 5829.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5780 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5760 and a target of 5845. We will add to these long positions only above 5875.

b) Around 5860 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5875 and a target of 5810. We will add to these short positions only below 5760.

c) As the Nifty is now at a crucial level, with both the Bulls and the Bears being equally strong, we will wait out for our entry levels to arrive strictly. We believe the Nifty is likely to whipsaw around quite a bit, before a clear trend emerges. We would not mind waiting out for that to happen.

Happy Trading !!!   

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.


For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 07 Mar 13 - Bulls regain footing

Bulls regain their losses, Nifty faces roadblocks, Big moves may unleash ahead.

As discussed yesterday, Bulls did stage a reversal, in the down trend that we had over the past few trading sessions. Nifty opened with a hefty 32 points positive gap, but faced resistance around 5825 and could not move up in yesterday's move. The Nifty closed at 5819 with a gain of 34 points by the end of day. It made a high of 5829 and a low of 5795 during the trading session. Our trading plan(a) triggered, did not hit the SL, but did not hit the target too. We were able to book out with a gain of 20 points, thanks to our timely analysis that we were against the immediate trend.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -16 to +20 Bear Power reduces from -84 to -13 indicating that the Bulls have now regained all their lost grounds, however the Bears too are not 'down and out' yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5830 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5790 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed 8EMA 13EMA and 200DMA. However, it has closed below its 21EMA 100DMA and 50DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone now and are pointing upwards.

Wednesday 6 March 2013

Nifty - 06 Mar 2013 - Bulls stage reversal

Bulls recovered a lot yesterday, but need more follow up today. Choppiness expected.

As discussed yesterday, we expected the Bearish outlook to sustain, however, aided by global cues, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 24 points and maintained that gap over the entire trading session, making a high of 5790 before closing at 5784. Once the Nifty surpassed the levels of 5755, the under currents turned Bullish for the day. We had suggested in our yesterday's post that a Bullish backlash was just round the corner, and that we should be mentally prepared for that. In our two trades taken yesterday, we could nett a gain of 17 points, despite one of our trades hitting the SL.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -98 to -16 Bear Power reduces from -147 to -84 indicating that there is still more to be done by the Bulls and that the Bears are not yet out of the leadership struggle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5805 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5720 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above its 8EMA(5774), but below its 13EMA and 21EMA. It has also closed below its 50DMA and its 100DMA but has closed above its 200DMA. 

3) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of participation in the rising prices. The MACD is still in the negative, but is reversing. The ADX is showing a rise in the Bullish momentum, but still favors the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5842.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5825, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5840 and a target of 5775. We will add to these short positions only below 5745.

b) Around 5765, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5810. We will add to these long positions only above 5840. 

Happy Trading !!!    

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 06 Mar 2013 - Bulls stage reversal

Bulls recovered a lot yesterday, but need more follow up today. Choppiness expected.

As discussed yesterday, we expected the Bearish outlook to sustain, however, aided by global cues, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 24 points and maintained that gap over the entire trading session, making a high of 5790 before closing at 5784. Once the Nifty surpassed the levels of 5755, the under currents turned Bullish for the day. We had suggested in our yesterday's post that a Bullish backlash was just round the corner, and that we should be mentally prepared for that. In our two trades taken yesterday, we could nett a gain of 17 points, despite one of our trades hitting the SL.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -98 to -16 Bear Power reduces from -147 to -84 indicating that there is still more to be done by the Bulls and that the Bears are not yet out of the leadership struggle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5805 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5720 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above its 8EMA(5774), but below its 13EMA and 21EMA. It has also closed below its 50DMA and its 100DMA but has closed above its 200DMA. 

3) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

Tuesday 5 March 2013

Nifty - 05 Mar 2013 - Bearish outlook sustains.

Bearish sentiments rule on the Nifty, as Bulls get weaker. Healthy consolidation on.

As discussed yesterday, traces of bearishness remained on the Nifty, as the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 15 points, then breached the previous day's lows at 5664 before closing at 5699 with a loss of 20 points. The Bulls were not able to breach the early morning high of 5712 in the late afternoon attempt, as all rises got sold off swiftly. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and hit the SL as we booked the loss of 20 points.

On the longer term charts, however, this consolidation on the Nifty appears to be a base preparation for the Nifty to take out all time highs. How and when it will unfold, is anybody's guess. We can only be mentally prepared for such a bullish backlash.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -89 to -98 Bear Power also reduces from -149 to -147, indicating that the Bears still are in the driving seat and Bulls need to do a lot before they can breathe easy. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5790 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to remain below all its key EMAs and also its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it continues to remain above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics too continue in the deeps of the oversold zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD continues to grow negative, however, the histogram is suggesting a pause in the fall. The ADX is suggesting a lowering of the bearish momentum, but is still favoring a down move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5866.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5740, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5755 and a target of 5670. We will add to these short positions only below 5645.

b) Around 5665, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5645 and a target of 5725. We will add to these long positions only above 5755.

Happy Trading !!!     

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 05 Mar 2013 - Bearish outlook sustains.

Bearish sentiments rule on the Nifty, as Bulls get weaker. Healthy consolidation on.

As discussed yesterday, traces of bearishness remained on the Nifty, as the Nifty opened with a negative gap of 15 points, then breached the previous day's lows at 5664 before closing at 5699 with a loss of 20 points. The Bulls were not able to breach the early morning high of 5712 in the late afternoon attempt, as all rises got sold off swiftly. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and hit the SL as we booked the loss of 20 points.

On the longer term charts, however, this consolidation on the Nifty appears to be a base preparation for the Nifty to take out all time highs. How and when it will unfold, is anybody's guess. We can only be mentally prepared for such a bullish backlash.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -89 to -98 Bear Power also reduces from -149 to -147, indicating that the Bears still are in the driving seat and Bulls need to do a lot before they can breathe easy. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5790 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to remain below all its key EMAs and also its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it continues to remain above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics too continue in the deeps of the oversold zone.

Monday 4 March 2013

Nifty - 04 Mar 2013 - Traces of Bearishness remain

Despite the minor bounce, Nifty appears bearish. Sell on rise will be the mantra.

As discussed on Friday, we had suggested that the bearishness was overstretched, and that was what we saw on the Nifty. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 9 points and then traded within a confined range of 5680 and 5740 before closing at 5720 with a gain of 27 points. It must be noted that the Bears were not able to breach the previous day's lows, indicating that the down move may have got arrested now. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and we could book out with a small profit of 15 points by EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +3 to -90 Bear Power also reduces from -175 to -149 indicating that the Bears are now losing momentum, but the Bulls are also very much tired and injured. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5810 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5660 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA, which is still rising.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone and are looking up.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise may get arrested soon. The MACD continues to move downwards, however, the histogram suggests a pause in the down move. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the Bears but still favors them over the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal, with a SL now pegged at 5889.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5760, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5775 and a target of 5705. We will add to these short positions only below 5665.

b) Around 5690, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5665 and a target of 5740. We will add to these long positions only above 5775.

Happy Trading !!!      

Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.



For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

Nifty - 04 Mar 2013 - Traces of Bearishness remain

Despite the minor bounce, Nifty appears bearish. Sell on rise will be the mantra.

As discussed on Friday, we had suggested that the bearishness was overstretched, and that was what we saw on the Nifty. The Nifty opened with a positive gap of 9 points and then traded within a confined range of 5680 and 5740 before closing at 5720 with a gain of 27 points. It must be noted that the Bears were not able to breach the previous day's lows, indicating that the down move may have got arrested now. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and we could book out with a small profit of 15 points by EOD.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +3 to -90 Bear Power also reduces from -175 to -149 indicating that the Bears are now losing momentum, but the Bulls are also very much tired and injured. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5810 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5660 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA, which is still rising.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone and are looking up.

Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.