Bears stamp their authority with a 234 point fall. Choppiness may follow.
As discussed on Friday, it was Time for caution. The Nifty opened with a small down gap of 37 points (this gap looks small in the backdrop of the aftermath) at 5705. Made a quick high of 5717 and immediately started to plunge. It first breached our sensitive level of 5690 with ease and then breached 5665 with even more buttress. From there, the Nifty continued to plunge effortlessly, as Bulls seem to have abandoned the cart. The Nifty finally made a low of 5496 and closed at 5508 with a loss of a whopping 234 points. We took a trade in the short direction and were able to book a profit of 55 points on that trade.
Summary : Although most of the indicators, on Friday, were in favor of the Bulls, we had suggested it was "Time for caution". This was mainly due to our observation that "The EMAs were stacked in favor of the Bears" and that the corrective rise seem to have reached its limits. Now on, this fall can gather momentum of its own and can turn into a snowball.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +49 to +39 Bear Power rises from -16 to -181 indicating that the Bulls may be down but are not out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5640 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5460 to maintain their downwards momentum. Watch out for the spread in these levels, and expect choppy volatile moves.
2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are languishing in the neutral zone as yet, indicating room for a further fall.
3) The Nifty has again closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have risen with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has again started pointing downwards, aborting the attempt to indicate a reversal. The histogram has again started growing in the negative. The ADX is now again favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR maintains its Buy signal with the SL now at 5492.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5570, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5700 and a target of 5465. We will add to these short positions only below 5425.
b) Around 5450, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5425 and a target of 5550. We will add to these long positions only above 5700.
Happy Trading !!!
Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As discussed on Friday, it was Time for caution. The Nifty opened with a small down gap of 37 points (this gap looks small in the backdrop of the aftermath) at 5705. Made a quick high of 5717 and immediately started to plunge. It first breached our sensitive level of 5690 with ease and then breached 5665 with even more buttress. From there, the Nifty continued to plunge effortlessly, as Bulls seem to have abandoned the cart. The Nifty finally made a low of 5496 and closed at 5508 with a loss of a whopping 234 points. We took a trade in the short direction and were able to book a profit of 55 points on that trade.
Summary : Although most of the indicators, on Friday, were in favor of the Bulls, we had suggested it was "Time for caution". This was mainly due to our observation that "The EMAs were stacked in favor of the Bears" and that the corrective rise seem to have reached its limits. Now on, this fall can gather momentum of its own and can turn into a snowball.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +49 to +39 Bear Power rises from -16 to -181 indicating that the Bulls may be down but are not out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5640 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5460 to maintain their downwards momentum. Watch out for the spread in these levels, and expect choppy volatile moves.
2) The fast stochastics have plunged into the oversold zone, but the slow stochastics are languishing in the neutral zone as yet, indicating room for a further fall.
3) The Nifty has again closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have risen with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has again started pointing downwards, aborting the attempt to indicate a reversal. The histogram has again started growing in the negative. The ADX is now again favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR maintains its Buy signal with the SL now at 5492.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5570, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5700 and a target of 5465. We will add to these short positions only below 5425.
b) Around 5450, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5425 and a target of 5550. We will add to these long positions only above 5700.
Happy Trading !!!
Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Trading plan(b) has triggered, opened fresh intraday long position at 5440 with a SL of 5420
ReplyDeleteBooked out with a quick profit of 25 points at 5465
ReplyDeleteAs suggested, Nifty has turned choppy.
ReplyDeleteNow one has to wait for the Bulls to exhaust or the Bears to breach the day's lows to initiate any further trades.
Patience is the need of the hour.
SIR
ReplyDeletenifty below days low...plz guide if shorts possible ..and what could be probable targets
thanks
Shivam,
DeleteNifty is sell on rises. But is in a really choppy mood.
Sell with a large stop loss.
Or wait patiently for stochastics (on the 15 min. chart) to go into overbought zone.
Currently Nifty is sell at 5440 with a SL of 5470
thanks for reply sir
ReplyDeletewhere to get streaming nifty 15 minutes charts ,presently i use Google finance it doesnt have option for 15 minute charts
Shivam,
DeleteOnline charts are not very reliable and often trail a lot.
We use Sharekhan's Trade Tiger and Ventura's Pointer software to track live markets.
Squared off short positions opened at 5445 with a profit of 40 points at 5405
ReplyDeletethanks sir for your valued guidance nifty is giving good profit on the sell call from 5440
ReplyDeleteThat is choppiness there for you.
ReplyDeleteFeel left out at one point of time, and then feel getting stuck with a wrong position at others.
Patience is the name of the game. Remember