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Friday 16 August 2013

Nifty - 16 Aug 13 - Time for caution

Bulls have regained their footing, but the future of the up move depends on 5690.

As discussed in our last post, the Bulls had regained their footing, and they ensured that the Nifty remained buoyant and gave a positive close in-spite of a holiday in front. The Nifty opened with a 16 points positive gap up and then traded in a narrow range. The low of 5690 made in the first hour of trade was well defended by the Bulls for the entire trading session, which resulted in the Nifty rising above the day's high established earlier to make a new weekly high of 5755 before closing at 5742 with a gain of 43 points. We booked a loss of 23 points in a trade taken on the short side.

Summary : Although the Bulls have regained some control, they have much to do to retain that position. The Bears are not out of the picture as yet and a breach of 5690 would trigger a major breakdown. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +5 to +49 Bear Power reduces from -121 to -16 indicating that the Bulls have gained and the Bears have lost grounds on Wednesday. However, they are both in their safe zones, making the Nifty neutral as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5765 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5690 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards.

3) The Nifty has closed above its 8EMA and 13EMA. However, it has closed below its 21EMA and also below all its key DMAs. Moreover, the EMAs are stacked in the favor of the Bears.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained high with the rise in the Nifty indicating that the up move may remain intact. The MACD is just about to give a positive divergence, but that signal has not emerged as yet. The ADX is suggesting a favor towards the Bulls now. The Parabolic SAR has just turned into a Buy signal with the initial SL pegged at 5487.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under. 

a) Around 5755 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5775 and a target of  5685. We will add to these short positions only below 5665.

b) Above 5690 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5665 and a target of 5750. We will add to these long positions only above 5775.

Happy Trading !!! 

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6 comments:

  1. Nifty is getting resisted below 5690.

    Now waiting for 5665 to break. If so, then will open intraday short position.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Opened short position at 5665 with a SL of 5690

    ReplyDelete
  3. Squared off at 5610 booking a profit of 55 points

    ReplyDelete
  4. Excellent technical analysis and trade!!!

    ReplyDelete

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