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Tuesday 23 October 2012

Nifty - 23 Oct 2012 - At tipping point again

Bulls take Nifty to top end of trading range, but fall short of breaking out.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty almost passed the Test of the up trend, as even after disastrous global cues and a dismal negative gap down opening, the Nifty never broke below 5650 and ended smartly at the top of its trading range with a gain of 33 points. However, the Nifty stopped short of crossing the hump at 5725 5750 zone, which needs to be crossed over for a meaningful breakout.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +34 to +38 Bear Power also rises from -18 to -26 indicative of the equal grip of both Bulls and Bears over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5730 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has yet again closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty, raising suspicion about the up trend marching ahead. The MACD continues to fall, but the histogram seems to be rising although being in the negative. The ADX continues to favor the Bulls even with a weakening momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with a extremely long SL.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5680 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5660 and a target of 5750. We will add to these long positions only above 5770.

b) Below 5750 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5770 and a target of 5695. We will add to these short positions only below 5660.

Happy Trading !!!    

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