AD Code

Thursday 25 October 2012

Nifty - 25 Oct 2012 - Expiry jitters

On expiry day, Nifty is in a no trade zone unless it breaks 5670 or 5715.

As discussed in our last post, we had the Nifty closing at the tipping point yet again. The up move could not be sustained at all and the Nifty got dragged back below 5700. However, yet again the Bears could not breach the 5650 levels and thus, the Nifty is now hanging right in the middle of the 5670 5715 trading zone, and we will be waiting patiently for the Nifty to breach this range on either side before making our next move.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +38 to +36 Bear Power also reduces from -27 to -3, indicating that the Bulls are having a slight edge as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5725 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5675 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (5692). However it has closed above its 13EMA (5685) and 21EMA (5659). The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the Nifty falling, indicating that the fall may not sustain long. The MACD continues to fall and the histogram continues to remain in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a rise in the overall momentum and the favour is still with the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5680, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5670 and a target of 5710. We will add to these long positions only above 5725.

b) Around 5715, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5725 and a target of 5685. We will add to these short positions only below 5670.

Happy Trading !!!     

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