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Friday 19 October 2012

Nifty - 19 Oct 2012 - Breakout needs validation

Nifty has just about broken out of its boring consolidation. Confirmation needed.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was going through a boring consolidation, which got terminated as the Bulls decided to take some initiative and took the Nifty first past 5685 and then past 5710 and even closed above those levels at 5718 with a gain of 58 points over the previous close. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +14 to +45 Bear Power reduces from -36 to -27 indicating that though the Bulls have gained some advantage the Bears are just round the corner as yet, and follow up is need from the Bulls to keep this up move intact. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5735 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed again above all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone still.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that this up move could be sustainable. The MACD is now showing the initial upwards divergence, with the histogram arresting its fall and rising. The ADX is also suggesting a strengthening of the up move. The Parabolic SAR has turned into a Buy signal now.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5690 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5680 and a target of 5740. We will add to these long positions only above 5760.

b) Around 5750 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5760 and a target of 5710. We will add to these short positions only below 5680.

Happy Trading  !!!   

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