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Thursday 18 October 2012

Nifty - 18 Oct 2012 - Boring consolidation

Nifty grinds slowly in a narrow trading range, may continue to do so more.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the Nifty return back to the trading mode, as even after a cheerful global cues, the Nifty managed to open with just a 33 point gap up, and never managed to build on it. Although the Nifty closed with a minor gain of 12 points over the previous day's close, it still closed 21 points below its yesterday's opening, which suggests that neither the Bulls nor the Bears have come out as winners as of now. Our trading plan (a) got triggered right at the start and hit its target too, making us a profit of 45 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +42 to +14 Bear Power stagnates at -36 indicative of the power struggle that is on and also indicative of the consolidation that is going on. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5690 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5630 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA(5676) and 13EMA(5670). Both these EMAs are below their previous day's values. However, the Nifty has closed above its 21EMA(5639) which is rising. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs which are also rising.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, emphasizing the hold of the Bulls and the failure of the Bears as yet.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with a small rise in the Nifty, indicating that the Nifty is taking support at lower levels and is consolidating. The MACD continues to fall, with the histogram also being in the negative and falling. The ADX continues to show a lack of momentum in any direction but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with its SL stuck at 5714 and not dropping.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under. (Basically it is the same as yesterday's )

a) Below 5695 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5715 and a target of 5640. We will add to these short positions only below 5605.

b) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5605 and a target of 5675. We will add to these long positions only above 5715.
Happy Trading !!!    
 
 

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