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Monday 30 July 2012

Nifty - 30 Jul 2012 - Back to range bound moves

Weak bulls and non aggressive bears may ensure that the Nifty remains ranged.

As discussed on Friday, we saw a "Cautious start to the fresh series", with the Nifty opening with a 80 point positive gap up and then staging ahead to a high of 5150 about 110 points higher than the previous close, only to give up 50 points from that gain and close at just below 5100. Today, again given the strong global cues and weak technicals, a repeat of Friday is expected by us.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -42 to -8 Bear Power reduces from -135 to -81, indicating that in-spite of the bounce, Bulls are still out of their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5150 to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5065 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is still trading below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold region but are pointing upwards.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the rise in the Nifty. The MACD continues to fall. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the Bears and a gain of momentum for the Bulls, however, the Bear momentum is still much above the Bull momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL put at 5166.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5140, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5155 and a target of 5085. We will add to these short positions only below 5045.

b) Around 5065, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5045 and a target of 5115. We will add to these long positions only above 5160.

Happy Trading !!! 

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