AD Code

Tuesday 31 July 2012

Nifty - 31 Jul 2012 - Still sell on rise

With the Nifty closing at the downward sloping channel top, sell on rise to continue.

As discussed yesterday, we found the Nifty trading "Back into the range" of 5050 to 5200. The Nifty opened with a positive gap and never did look back during the entire trading session, and closed with a whopping gain of 100 points. However, it has now stopped at the top of the downward sloping trading channel, and we expect a pause if not resumption of the downward move.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -8 to +43 Bear Power reduces from -81 to -36 making the Bulls and the Bears now equidistant and within their own respective zones, increasing the chances of volatility. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5220 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5125 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are back out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have again depleted with the rise in the Nifty making the upward move less sustainable. The MACD is rising but is still in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum to the current trend, and is favoring the Bears yet. The Parabolic SAR has turned into a Buy signal with a SL at 5032.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5180, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5160 and a target of 5225. We will add to these long positions only above 5255.

b) Around 5240, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.

Happy Trading !!! 

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