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Thursday 5 July 2012

Nifty - 05 Jul 2012 - Nifty hangs out on the top end

Nifty keeps its bullish stance, as trading range contracts. Smells of a correction.

As discussed yesterday, "Correction looms in?", it turned out to be a wisely put question mark, which may carry forward to today, maybe tomorrow too. For three consecutive trading sessions now, the Nifty has managed to open with a mild gap up, made higher lows and closed below the opening mark, giving out 3 consecutive DOJIs. This is indicative of the upwards but indecisive bias on the Nifty, which makes a further breakout or breakdown imminent now.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +145 to +127 Bear Power rises from +94 to +83 , indicating that the Bulls are still strong, but the Bears are not allowing them to run away too far. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5345 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach 5210 to return to their safe zone.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and its Key DMAs. As per these EMAs and DMAs current positions, a correction till 5140 could be swiftly bought out in such a strong market, without disturbing the up trend.

3) The stochastics continue to remain deeply in the overbought zone and are pointing horizontal now.




4) In the above chart, the volumes keep on increasing mildly with the Nifty inching up, indicating the strength of the uptrend. The MACD is also inching up. The ADX is suggesting some weakening of the uptrend, and the downtrend is at its weakest now. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its buy signal with a turnaround point at 5217.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5330, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5360 and a target of 5265. We will add to these short positions only below 5245.

b) Around 5265, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5245 and a target of 5310. We will add to these long positions only above 5360.

Happy Trading !!! 

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