AD Code

Wednesday 4 July 2012

Nifty - 04 Jul 2012 - Correction looms in?

As the Nifty stalls in its progress, a correction is looming in, and may be bought into.

As discussed yesterday, "the Nifty continued to rise" albeit in a narrow range, closing with a minor gain of less than 10 points. It is significant that the Bears could not breach the Nifty below previous day's low of 5263, which indicates of the up move being even more stronger. During last two trading sessions, none of our trading plans got triggered, and we were happy sitting on the sidelines, watching Nifty grind in a narrow range.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +149 to +145 Bear Power rises from +111 to +94 indicating that the Bulls remain the stronger force in the market as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5340 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5190 on the Nifty to regain all their lost grounds. This makes the chances of a imminent correction, bright.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs. The 100 DMA at 5190 is the nearest DMA support line.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone and are pointing sideways.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased slightly with a slight rise in the Nifty, indicating exhaustion at higher levels. The MACD continues to rise, indicating the strength of the up move. The ADX is suggesting slight exhaustion of the up move, but is also suggesting further weakening of the down move, which amounts to volatility. 

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5260, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5240 and a target of 5330. We will add to these long positions only above 5350.


b) Around 5335, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5350 and a target of 5250. We will add to these short positions only below 5235.


Happy Trading !!!


 
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