AD Code

Wednesday 18 April 2012

Nifty - 18 Apr 2012 - Roadblocks ahead

After the RBI surprise yesterday, the Bulls may lead, but there are roadblocks ahead.

As discussed yesterday, it was a tough task for the bulls, where in we saw the Nifty break day lows before managing to overcome the day high. In spite of the RBI surprising on the positive side, the Nifty managed a gain of just 63 points, when we have seen Nifty gaining more than 120 points on many occasions in the recent past. Today, on the back of global cues, the Bulls have got another shot in the arm and they can generate some momentum now.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -24 to +36 Bear Power reduces from -74 to -54 indicating that the Bulls and the Bears are now equidistant and safe in their own zones, and this may increase the volatility. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5310 to maintain their bullish momentum whereas the Bears need to drag the Nifty down to 5260 to remain safe in their zone.

2) The Nifty is now trading above its key EMAs and its 100 and 200 DMAs. The 50 DMA at 5339 is a key level to watch out for. A close above that, will pump in great momentum for the Bulls.

3) The stochastics is in the neutral zone and is pointing horizontal, indicating lack of direction.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating a bullish surge. The MACD is still in the negative and is horizontal. The ADX is also suggesting that no clear trend exists, and is giving equal bias to both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5340, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5355 and a target of 5275. We will add to these short positions below 5240 only.

b) Around 5270, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5240 and a target of 5320. We will add to these long positions above 5355 only.

Happy Trading !!! 

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