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Tuesday 17 April 2012

Nifty - 17 Apr 2012 - Tough task for Bulls

With high expectations from the RBI monetary policy, it is a tough task ahead for Bulls.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was nearing key supports, and a minor bounce back that was expected did happen. The Nifty closed with a minor gain of 19 points. Today, the RBI monetary policy announcement will be a major deciding factor for the next direction the Nifty takes on.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +44 to -24 Bear Power also reduces from  -77 to -74 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are cautiously waiting and are wary of the next direction the market may take. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5250 so as to return to their safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach 5175 to maintain their negative momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and below its 50 DMA (5339). The 200 DMA ( 5144) and the 100 DMA (5095) may offer the much needed support to any drastic fall.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have again dried up in yesterday's minor gain on the Nifty, indicating lack of force behind this rise. The MACD is in the negative and now it is threatening to fall away. The ADX is still indicating a direction less market and is still favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out a Buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5215, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5195 and a target of 5270. We will add to these long positions above 5290 only.

b) Around 5275, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5290 and a target of 5210. We will add to these short positions below 5180 only.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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