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Monday 16 April 2012

Nifty - 16 Apr 2012 - Nearing key supports

As the Nifty test key support levels, a bounce back cannot be ruled out yet.

As discussed in our last post, the expected high volatility unfolded and the Nifty after touching the falling trend line at 5306, retreated fast and furious to levels below 5200 and closed just above. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is expected to open with a gap down, but as it is nearing key support levels, a bounce back can be expected.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +19 to +44 Bear Power also rises from -25 to -77 indicating that the volatile whipsaw is likely to get even wilder and that the Nifty may swing wildly from now onwards.

2) The Nifty is trading below its key EMAs now and also below its 50 DMA.  However, the 200 DMA at 5145 could provide the much needed support.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards now. 



4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased while the Nifty fell, indicating increase in participation during this fall. The MACD is in the negative but is horizontal. The ADX is suggesting a trend less move with a slight bias towards the down move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5235, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of  5255 and a target of 5155. We will add to these short positions below 5130.

b) Around 5155, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5230. We will add to these long positions above 5255.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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