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Friday 13 April 2012

Nifty - 13 Apr 2012 - Expect high volatility

As a volatile week comes to an end, expect volatility to rise further.

Yesterday, we had suggested that Nifty is still range bound, and we saw the Nifty moving up and down within a narrow range of 44 points. Of course, we did not have a profitable day, as the Nifty never broke below its opening mark, however, it did not hit our stop loss either. We had to book a small loss of 10 points at the end of the day. Today, with global cues favoring the Bulls, the Nifty is likely to open positive with a gap up. However, major resistances to this up move can play a road block.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -7 to +19 Bear Power reduces from -80 to -25, indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now equidistant from the zero line and both are well within their own territory, this gives rise to possibility of volatile session / sessions ahead. For today, the Bulls need to cross over 5295 and the Bears need to breach 5270 to maintain their momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading above its 8 and 13 EMAs however it is below its 21 EMA. The 50 DMA at 5340 could act as a resistance to any up move.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards now.



4) In the above chart, the volumes are almost on par with a narrow trading range for the Nifty, indicating equilibrium between the Bulls and the Bears. The MACD is still in the negative and is horizontal, again indicating equilibrium. The ADX is still indicating a trend less market with a slight but declining bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5340, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5355 and a target of 5275. We will add to these short positions below 5255.

b) Around 5265, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5325. We will add to these long positions only above 5355. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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