AD Code

Tuesday 4 October 2011

Nifty - 04 Oct 2011 - Test of the recent lows today

Nifty may stage a bounce back today

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty showed range bound consolidation during the entire trading session. After a weak opening at 4874, the Nifty traded within a 50 point range before closing at 4850 losing 94 points against the previous close. Today, the Nifty is likely to have a soft opening and is likely to stage a bounce back attempt. Will this attempt succeed? Let us do some Tech Analysis to find out.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduced from +46 to -82 Bear Power increases from -56 to -137  This indicates that the Bears are in control and the Bulls are again losing power.

2) The moving averages have again started to point downwards.

3) The stochastics are coming near the oversold zone and can enter the zone by the end of today.



4) In the above chart, the MACD has started declining again. The ADX has given out a fresh sell signal. ( The fact to be noted here, is that the ADX is an advance signal ) . The Nifty is almost near the lower Bollinger Band.

5) Considering all the above facts, the Nifty is likely to open weak and trade in the red zone for the first half of today's session. However, after a test of 4780 4760 zone, it is likely to bounce back and test 4880. Around 4880 if a fresh wave of selling does not come, then Nifty will try for 4930. Below 4760, there is a strong support at 4720.

6) Our trading plan for the day :

a) We will look out for opening long positions around 4780 with a SL of 4750 and a target of 4850. We will add to long positions above 4890 only.

b) We will look out for opening short positions if the Nifty is not able to take out 4880. Then, at around 4860 we will open short positions for a target of 4800 and a SL of 4890.

Today's range for the Nifty - 4760 4940

Happy Trading !!! 

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