AD Code

Monday 3 October 2011

Nifty - 03 Oct 2011 - Range bound consolidation

Nifty to consolidate in a tight range after a weak opening

On Friday, the Nifty found renewed resistance at 5030 and took support at 4924, before closing at 4943. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is slated to open on a weak note. Seems like it could be a day full of trading opportunities for both the bulls and the bears.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduced slightly from 48 to 46 also the Bear Power reduced from -80 to -56. This indicates that both are safe in their zone. The Bulls are in the positive and the Bears are in the negative. However, both are weakening. This coupled with the falling ATR, is a first indication of the range tightening and consolidation periods in forthcoming sessions.

2) The 7DMA and the 50DMA have started to flatten out. While the EMAs are still pointing downwards. The stochastics are also right in the middle of the overbought and oversold range.



3) In the above chart, the Bollinger bands are flattening out. The +ADX is converging with the -ADX showing sustainable consolidation ahead of us.

4) Today, the market after opening with down gaps, can try to refill this gap.

5) Considering the above, 

a) We will look out for opening longs 20 points above the opening mark, with a SL 20 points below the opening mark and a target of 4910. We will add to our longs only above 4960.

b) Till the Nifty continues to trade below its opening, we will refrain from opening any new positions, as 4800 is a very strong support and opening shorts below 4850 will not be that rewarding as compared to the risk.

For today, 4850 4950 could be the trading range for the Nifty.

Happy trading !!! 

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