Nifty - 09 May 2014 - Bears take control

Nifty drifts downwards as Bulls take a back seat. End of week closing crucial now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty was testing triple bottom. The Nifty drifted a bit lower than the support area around 6650 and recovered, but just that. The Nifty opened at 6670, then traded within a confined zone of 25 points between 6680 and 6655 for the next couple of hours. It briefly attempted a breakout, but could reach on 6688 ( below our identified resistance of 6695) but got sold off from there to breach the critical level of 6650 and made a low of 6639. From there, the Nifty recovered to close at 6660, lower than the opening mark, but higher than the previous close, thus keeping both the Bulls and the Bears on their toes.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from 0 to -22 Bear Power also reduces from -76 to -72 indicating that the Bears are in control as of now, but need to do more to keep the Bulls at bay. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6710 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6625 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

 

4) In the above chart, the volumes have reduced with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the rise may find resistance ahead. The MACD continues to come downwards with the histogram too remaining in the negative but stagnating. The ADX is favoring the Bears but is suggesting a weakening of their momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now brought down to 6844.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6690 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6715 and a target of 6640. We will add to these short positions only below 6610.

b) Around 6630 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6610 and a target of 6680. We will add to these long positions only above 6715.

Happy Trading !!! 

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