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Thursday 26 September 2013

Nifty - 26 Sept 2013 - Equilibrium on expiry day

Nifty attains equality for Bulls and Bears on the eve of expiry. Volatility to rule.

As discussed in our last post, we expected the "Nifty to turn directionless". During the past two trading sessions, the Nifty has moved between 5940 on the upside and 5810 on the downside and closing around 5885 on both days. In yesterday's session, the Nifty opened positive and then nosedived, only to recover late in the day and close with a loss of 19 points. We did not take any trades as we expected trades to be clueless.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +94 to +62 Bear Power rises from +10 to -38 indicating that the Bears have now regained their ground, but need to keep up their pressure, else the Bulls may still be able to hold on. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5925 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5810 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant, with the Nifty also remaining stagnant, pointing to the indecision on the part of the traders. The MACD is attempting to signal a downward move, however, the signal has not developed yet. The ADX is also suggesting equality towards the Bullish and Bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with the SL now shifted to 6136.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5815 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5790 and a target of 5925. We will add to these long positions only above 5965.

b) Around 5945 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5965 and a target of 5835. We will add to these short positions only below 5790.

Happy Trading !!! 

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