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Wednesday 4 September 2013

Nifty - 04 Sept 2013 - Equilibrium tilts Bearish

Bears come back with a bang & tilt equilibrium in their favor. However, equality stays.

As discussed yesterday, a Bullish equilibrium had reached on the Nifty and Nifty was facing roadblocks ahead. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 24 points at 5575 and after making a quick high of 5581 retreated initially and then accelerated its down move. There was relentless selling from the Bears and the Nifty kept on making new lows every hour never even threatening the hourly highs. The Nifty finally closed at 5341 after making a low of 5324. We took one trade on the short side and booked out with a profit of 55 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +96 to +130 Bear Power also rises from +10 to -127 indicating that the Bears have regained their lost grounds quickly, however, both the Bulls and the Bears are equidistant in their respective zones. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5585 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5300 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone, but are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD is again pointing downwards and attempting a short signal with the histogram also reducing in the positive zone. The ADX is also showing a fall in the bullish momentum and a rise in the bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal with the SL now shifted up to 5128.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5390 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5415 and a target of 5295. We will add to these short positions only below 5270.

b) Around 5290 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5270 and a target of 5370. We will add to these long positions only above 5415.

Happy Trading !!! 

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2 comments:

  1. Opened fresh short positions at 5405 with a SL of 5430

    ReplyDelete
  2. Went long at 5339 and closed around 5400
    but shorted again and regret second trade, seems bears are trapping bulls..
    Now shorted again at 5460 SL 5479

    -HC

    ReplyDelete

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