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Friday 2 August 2013

Nifty - 02 Aug 2013 - Poised in undecided mode

With a violent consolidation, the Nifty is poised undecided about further direction.

In our yesterday's post, we had questioned the previous day's trade as a Bullish recovery or a Eyewash?. Yesterday's trading session was a clear reflection on that. The Nifty opened with a 35 point positive gap up at 5777 and made a high of 5809 continuing with the recovery mode, and then suddenly got sold off to levels below 5700 and to 5677 just 1 point above previous day's low, losing 130 points in that move. Post that, the Nifty again got into a fast recovery mode and came above 5760 within almost no time. The rest of the session, the Nifty was found groping for direction and closed at 5728 with a nett loss of 14 points. We took two trades as per our trading plans and could book a total profit of 120 points in those trades.

Summary : The Nifty is poised waiting for further direction, albeit with the medium term trend remaining bearish. Bounces should find resistance around 5770 to 5800 range, with a support in the 5650 to 5670 zone.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -133 to -54 Bear Power reduces from -209 to -186 indicating that the Bulls although have recovered a lot, they have much more work to do as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5840 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5645 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics continue to remain in the oversold zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

 



4) In the above chart the volumes remain high with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the down move may continue. The MACD continues its downward journey with the histogram also growing in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the bearish momentum and a rise in the bullish momentum, which is indicative of a consolidation. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now shifted to 5993.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5785 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5805 and a target of 5685. We will add to these short positions only below 5655. 

b) Around 5675 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5655 and a target of 5760. We will add to these long positions only above 5805.

Happy Trading !!! 

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2 comments:

  1. Trading plan(b) has triggered. Opened fresh long positions at 5672 with SL of 5652

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nifty not showing any strength. Booked out at 5660 with a loss of 12 points.

    ReplyDelete

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