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Thursday 1 August 2013

Nifty - 01 Aug 2013 - Bullish recovery or a Eyewash?

Nifty recovered 79 points from the day's low, yet remains in a "Sell on rise" mode.

In our yesterday's post, we had suggested "Bearishness to stay". The Nifty opened with a negative gap of 17 points at 5738 and immediately slid below 5700 and made a low of 5676 in the first hour of trade. The Nifty then traded bearishly for most of the 5 hours of the trading session after that. However, in the last hour of trade, the Nifty made a recovery, crossed the initial day's highs and made a high at 5752 before closing at 5742. Yes, we got whipsawed in this mayhem and booked a total loss of 35 points in two trades taken, both the trades going wrong. The point to be noted, is that Nifty closed in the red despite all this mayhem of recovery.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -47 to -133 Bear Power rises from -161 to -209 indicating that despite the Bulls staging that recovery, they are still not to be favored. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5860 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are well and deep into the oversold zone are are trying to look up.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with formation of a pin bar at the bottom of the chart, indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD continues its plunge downwards with the histogram too growing in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a sudden rise in the bearish momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now at 6028.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5785 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5805 and a target of 5700. We will add to these short positions only below 5680.

b) Around 5695 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5680 and a target of 5760. We will add to these long positions only above 5805.

Happy Trading !!! 

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4 comments:

  1. Trading plan (a) has triggered. Opened fresh short position at 5795 with a SL of 5815

    ReplyDelete
  2. Squared off short positions at 5715 with a profit of 80 points.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Now trading plan(b) also gives 40 points profit.

    Long opened at 5690 with SL of 5670 and squared off at 5730

    ReplyDelete
  4. Trading plan(b) also hits its target. However, we squared off earlier only without waiting for target, since we had already booked 120 points of profit. This has been a good day of trade. No more trades now for the day. It is time to relish these profits.

    ReplyDelete

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