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Thursday 25 July 2013

Nifty - 25 July 2013 - Expiry Jitters

Bears set their foot in with a bang. Nifty poses bearish ahead of series expiry.

As discussed yesterday, volatility was on the rise. The Nifty opened with a 46 points gap down at 6032 and made a quick high of 6047, from where the Bears took over and pulled down the Nifty below 6000 and way down to 5963 before closing at 5990 with a whopping loss of 87 points. There were two attempts of recovery but were both successfully thwarted by the Bears. We took one trade as per trading plan(a) and booked a small loss of 25 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +125 to +76 Bear Power rises from +93 to -9 indicating that now both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective safe zones. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6050 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5960 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics have started pointing downwards from the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA and has also closed above all its key DMAs.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD is showing signs of topping out with the histogram reducing in the positive zone. The ADX is suggesting a loss in the Bullish momentum and a rise in the Bearish momentum, however it is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now shifted to 5931.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5960 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5940 and a target of 6015. We will add to these long positions only above 6040.

b) Around 6025 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6040 and a target of 5970. We will add to these short positions only below 5940.

Happy Trading !!! 

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4 comments:

  1. Trading plan(a) has triggered. Opened fresh long position at 5960 with a SL of 5940

    ReplyDelete
  2. Booked out with a loss of 20 points as SL hit

    ReplyDelete
  3. Opened fresh short position at 5940 as per part b of trading plan (b)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Squared off @5905 near EOD booking profit of 35 points

    ReplyDelete

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