AD Code

Thursday 4 April 2013

Nifty - 04 Apr 2013 - Bulls still have a chance

Despite yesterday's shake off, Bulls still have a chance. Volatility expected now.

As discussed yesterday, 5800 which was considered to be a key level, was defended successfully by the Bears. The Nifty opened with a minor gap down of 8 points, and struggled all through the morning session to fill up that gap, and by the afternoon, the Bears took over the control and swept the Nifty below our identified support levels of 5685 to test the lows of 5650 before closing the day at 5673. We were out of the market for the entire day, and missed out on the action.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +23 to +22 Bear Power rises from -45 to -73 indicating that the Bulls are still holding a good chance for recovery, as the Nifty gets ready for a test of 200DMA yet again. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5735 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now again closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has closed above its 200DMA(5637)

3) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone are are pointing against each other.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue. The MACD has stopped just short of giving a positive divergence, which is bad news for the Bulls. The ADX is showing a perfect equilibrium in the market with the overall momentum going down. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with the SL now pegged at 5758.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5605 and a target of 5690. We will add to these long positions only above 5720.

b) Around 5730 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5755 and a target of 5650. We will add to these short positions only below 5605.

Happy Trading !!!    

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